TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[krisj]

What is an anticyclone? Still trying to figure out all these terms here.

[boca]

I believe its a high pressure system Krisj.

[MBismyPlayground]

OkiBeach,
It is the same thing here as well... I mean they break in to local programming here with updates, or they did yesterday but today not so.
I honestly think it because they do not want to lose the tourism dollar. This coming weekend is the last hurrah, so to speak and THIS is what the news here continues to discuss. Can you imagine this thing picking up and then trying to evacuate, now that WOULD be a mess considering the roads in the Carolinas. (or lack of)

[krisj]

I get it. Anti-cyclone. Makes sense. Thanks.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Clockwise flow associated with high pressure i.e. high pressure centers rotate CW and Low rotate CCW. see the peach colored lines to the NE of Ernesto?


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

oops fixed link

[boca]

Where getting still 25 to 40mph winds down here in Eastern Palm Bch County. No rain still.

[skysummit]

What is an anticyclone? Still trying to figure out all these terms here.

The way it's being used here is a high pressure system in the upper layers of the atmosphere. If one can build over a cyclone, or a cyclone move under one, it really helps the outflow of the storm develop, thus making the upper air conditions good for development.

[krisj]

So it wouldn't make it move, but rather the two would combine? I thought high pressure systems help dictate, block, move, the systems. Is that not really the case?
Thanks for all the clear, basic explanations 'cause I have no weather background what so ever. I'm just like to learn.

[Okibeach]

OkiBeach,
It is the same thing here as well... I mean they break in to local programming here with updates, or they did yesterday but today not so.
I honestly think it because they do not want to lose the tourism dollar. This coming weekend is the last hurrah, so to speak and THIS is what the news here continues to discuss. Can you imagine this thing picking up and then trying to evacuate, now that WOULD be a mess considering the roads in the Carolinas. (or lack of)

Your probably right about the $$. When Charley came through last year the first notice most people got was that they should have finished their preparations. Quite a shock to some, and several rescues had to be made when roofs and windows began to blow out and off some of the oceanfront homes.

[BensonTCwatcher]

The Anticyclone is the directional flow of the winds, tropical systems do move around high pressure. You might think of the high pressure like a "hill" and low pressure like a "valley" The flow of winds is more like the direction the hills and valleys are turning. I know the Mets on here will grill me for that unscientific explanation, but...hey I am not a Met so I hope I can get away with it

[Cuber]

Sure seems odd that the normal northeast "dirty quadrant" of this depression / storm never materialized and that it's the southwest quad that seems the strongest.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/radamx.html

[skysummit]

So it wouldn't make it move, but rather the two would combine? I thought high pressure systems help dictate, block, move, the systems. Is that not really the case?
Thanks for all the clear, basic explanations 'cause I have no weather background what so ever. I'm just like to learn.

It all depends on what layer the high is in. Tropical Cyclones get steered by different layers of the atmosphere according to their intensity. For instance, if Ernesto would've continued into the gulf, an anticyclone was forecasted to build over head. That's one of the reason why it was forecasted to be a major hurricane in the gulf. That, along with the high sea surface temperatures and heat content of the loop current.

[HurricaneJim]

Any chance that high to the west will push it further offshore than expected and make for a channce encounter with Hatteras?

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[gatorcane]

I'm not quite sure it is a depression yet, Luis why are you so confident and why was this thread's title changed without the NHCs official statement?

[BensonTCwatcher]

So it wouldn't make it move, but rather the two would combine? I thought high pressure systems help dictate, block, move, the systems. Is that not really the case?
Thanks for all the clear, basic explanations 'cause I have no weather background what so ever. I'm just like to learn.

It all depends on what layer the high is in. Tropical Cyclones get steered by different layers of the atmosphere according to their intensity. For instance, if Ernesto would've continued into the gulf, an anticyclone was forecasted to build over head. That's one of the reason why it was forecasted to be a major hurricane in the gulf. That, along with the high sea surface temperatures and heat content of the loop current.

Hey I don't like the sound of that, if you replace Loop Current with Gulf Stream and GOM with Atlantic off GA coast....Maybe I better get some gas for the generator

[HurricaneJim]

Always good to have gas for a generator anyway.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers


NAVY WAM LINK
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

[westmoon]

Sure seems odd that the normal northeast "dirty quadrant" of this depression / storm never materialized and that it's the southwest quad that seems the strongest.

And the SW Quad seams to be growing! what is with this?

Seams noone gave "The Guide To Being A Good Hurricane" to Ernesto

[Stormavoider]

Is anyone else seeing the center way west of forecast track?

[Sanibel]

Where is the center? The best I can do is east of Ft Myers in that vague swirl.

Ernesto looks like it hit a brick wall and fell apart.


We are underneath that "growing center" and it is mild with breezes and misty rain. Hardly any kind of tropical force involved.

[westmoon]

Stormavoider,
Yup, your not alone