TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

BensonTCwatcher · #61 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:20 am

Here's where I get that from,...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The center is oblong in response to moving around the ridge. Moving toward Lake Okeechobee. All bets are off on the intensity though. Ernesto has been strengtening over land staying the same over the loop current? Heck who knows

#62 Postby **KBBOCA** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:22 am

Been keeping an eye on the WPB Obs (PBIA) since that's near where my brother lives (I'm currently overseas, far from my Boca home). Interesting to note that WPB is getting its strongest winds right now, as others in Broward and PB counties have been reporting:

09:53 SE 31 G 40 2.00 Rain and Windy BKN017TCU 81 76 29.74 1006.9

highest previous winds were SE at 21 with gusts to 31 (reported at 08:53 this a.m.)

Stormavoider · #63 Postby **Stormavoider** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:23 am

cinlfla wrote:Does anyone have an idea where Ernesto is going to exit? or should I say what's left of him. Glad to have the rain our yard is terribly dry. I hope the folks in the Carolinas only get rain like I'm getting here. I was in the Carolinas in June Both states are just beautiful.

If it doesn't hurry up and change it's ways, it,s going to exit at Fort Meyers.

#64 Postby **drezee** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:23 am

bjackrian wrote:
drezee wrote:From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).

30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1

sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.

Impressive winds, but unimpressive pressure (1007.6 if I'm reading that correctly?). What's driving 40+ mph winds without a huge pressure gradient? Are we talking thunderstorm downbursts rather than true TC winds?

Are you asking a legitimate question or are you just trying to play?

If it were even a possiblity of being spot or inconsistent data why would I post it? Also did you look at the buoy information before you asked the question. It is much easier to question something, than to go look for yourself. I see that you are new here so let me give you a little of advice. You will gain more respect if you actually add something to the board rather than asking questions before even looking at the data.

westmoon · #65 Postby **westmoon** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:24 am

I'll Vote Fort Meyers too

SCMedic · #66 Postby **SCMedic** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:25 am

Ground_Zero_92 wrote:
SCMedic wrote:Some of the new models are shifting back west towards Charleston....

There's a thread about it in the analysis section...

I also think it's funny how we've lost people today. People that are actual weather enthusiasts, don't tend to care where it makes landfall or goes afterwards, they keep watching..

All these..."florida is the only state" people annoy the crap out of me..

I am sorry if this has already been responded to, but I felt the need to speak my mind on this.

It saddens me to see comments like this. After dealing with long gas lines, doing last minute supply shopping, making sure we had everything for the kids, and making sure my elderly parents were all prepared, I finally got some rest overnight and this morning.

Because myself, or others like me don't post a lot, or may appear to have become "lost", does not mean that we only care about tropical systems approaching or affecting only our state. It could just be that the last couple of days have been physically and mentally exhausting and we all are getting well needed rest and returning to our lives that were interrupted. Either way, it does not mean that we stop caring about where a system is heading just because the threat to us is greatly reduced or over.

I can see my comment has caused a bit of a stir....

My comment was more directed at the ignorant people who post the "ernesto is done...Ernesto is over..Non-Event...Yada yada" crap. They're useless to this board. They have no idea what they're talking about. The people who read, and contribute regularly are greatly appreciated.

The people who sit and argue with the pro-mets, and the models, and the NHC are infuriating. They don't have the backround or eductation to be posting stuff like the above quotes on a very frequented, public forum. People are going to read that, and take it at face value. This could result in people being uprepared. I just think they are very irresponsible.

I apologize if I offended anyone.

Rainband · #67 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:26 am

Josh Linker just said where the center is. It's closer to the east coast. I am not sure what you guys are seeing??

BensonTCwatcher · #68 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:27 am

Stormavoider wrote:
cinlfla wrote:Does anyone have an idea where Ernesto is going to exit? or should I say what's left of him. Glad to have the rain our yard is terribly dry. I hope the folks in the Carolinas only get rain like I'm getting here. I was in the Carolinas in June Both states are just beautiful.

If it doesn't hurry up and change it's ways, it,s going to exit at Fort Meyers.

No way on FT Meyers, check the position of the ridge, and I see it moving at least N now if not some Easterly component as well, too may eddies at the center area to be sure, have to wait and see. JMO

westmoon · #69 Postby **westmoon** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:27 am

Rainband,

Did he give lon/Lat?

#70 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:28 am

Wow does Ernesto ever go away!! :grrr:

Looks like his center has "jumped" into the deeper convection to the west near Ft Myers and may very well exit the coast soon :eek:

That "center" is moving west on radar it looks like.

Jim Cantore · #71 Postby **Jim Cantore** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:30 am

Just a question, where does it say it's been downgraded to a TD?

#72 Postby **Noah** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:30 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow does Ernesto ever go away!!

Looks like his center has "jumped" into the deeper convection to the west near Ft Myers and may very well exit the coast soon

That "center" is moving west on radar it looks like.

Someone just posted above the center was east.?? Im confused.

#73 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:30 am

Check out this loop. There is some spinning right over collier county:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

#74 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:32 am

He has spun off some vortex SW of the original center and it is moving off to the west...

Look over central/SW collier county...

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

SCMedic · #75 Postby **SCMedic** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:34 am

I believe that those are some of the smaller vorticies rotating around the center. The center seems to be near Bella Glade...

westmoon · #76 Postby **westmoon** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:34 am

gatorcane,

Check out this loop. There is some spinning right over collier county:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

that plots out if he is still moning nnw @ 8mph

#77 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:35 am

SCMedic wrote:I believe that those are some of the smaller vorticies rotating around the center. The center seems to be near Bella Glade...

True but what if that smaller vortex is taking over right now...looks like it to me based on the radar....that one near Belle Glade is rapidly dissipating.

westmoon · #78 Postby **westmoon** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:38 am

I can't wait to see where the NHC puts the center @ 11AM

BensonTCwatcher · #79 Postby **BensonTCwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:40 am

Go here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Turn on MSLP and overlay the radar. It might be reformation, wobble etc. but overall this has to N then NE. It is no surprise we are see some wierd stuff when you look at the fact Ernesto is in a semi-blocked scenario.

GaryOBX · #80 Postby **GaryOBX** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 9:44 am

To me, it looks like the broad center is SE of Clewiston, SW of WPB, and WNW of Pompano. Is this going to move east of Okeechobee???

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

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