TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[curtadams]

I think he's just not perfectly stacked. I see a tilted vortex from NE of Everglades City to NE of Naples. I can actually perceive the next band out as a rotating tilting cylinder - it's kind of a magic eye effect. The effect of different vortices is mostly an illusion from different levels.

[Rainband]

Go here

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Turn on MSLP and overlay the radar. It might be reformation, wobble etc. but overall this has to N then NE. It is no surprise we are see some wierd stuff when you look at the fact Ernesto is in a semi-blocked scenario.

I saw that. The interesting thing is the High pressure northof him would have to move east or he will go west. He may stall out. I give up trying to predict what this storm will do. Josh just said we have a wet scenario setting up in His wake. More Rain yea..

[ronjon]

Looks like Ernie wants to catch a ride on I-75 in Ft Myers. It'll probably stay inland and turn NE at some point but channel 10 (CBS-Tampa) titan model had the center riding up to Tampa and then turning NE toward Daytona Beach this morning.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[jasons2k]

I believe that those are some of the smaller vorticies rotating around the center. The center seems to be near Bella Glade...

Yes - it's very dispirganized and thus the optical illusions some are seeing. Tried to point this put last night when some were bent on this thing going to the Gulf (and not the upper keys) but they just don't seem to listen. I guess that's why I don't see any more posts from the Pro Mets...

[Brent]

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF
SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH ON THE WEST COAST INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD
AND IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM SEBASTIAN INLET FLORIDA NORTHWARD AND
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.9 WEST OR
ABOUT 55 MILES... 85 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
AND ABOUT 115 MILES...190 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA.

[Bane]

Tropical Depression Ernesto Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 30, 2006



the center of Ernesto is well-inland over southern Florida and winds
have decreased to 30 knots. Therefore...the system has been
downgraded to tropical depression status. A few gusts to tropical
storm force are still possible along the Florida East Coast
associated with rainbands. The cloud pattern on visible satellite
remains organized and there is potential for Ernesto to
re-intensify once it moves over the Atlantic waters late tonight.
There are no indications that the cyclone will strengthen
significantly over water and the best estimate at this time is that
Ernesto will reach the southeast U.S. Coast as a tropical
storm...in agreement with the consensus of the intensity guidance.
Ernesto is moving northward about 9 knots and a developing trough
over the Gulf of Mexico will likely steer the cyclone to
the north and north-northeast with a small increase in forward
speed. This is consistent with most of the global models and
hurricane track guidance which bring Ernesto to the southeast U.S.
Coast in about 36 hours. Once inland and beyond 48 hours Ernesto
should begin to interact with a frontal system and become
extratropical.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 26.4n 80.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 80.5w 35 kt...inland
24hr VT 31/1200z 31.0n 80.2w 40 kt
36hr VT 01/0000z 33.5n 79.5w 45 kt...inland
48hr VT 01/1200z 36.0n 79.0w 30 kt...inland
72hr VT 02/1200z 40.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical
96hr VT 03/1200z 44.8n 79.5w 25 kt...extratropical
120hr VT 04/1200z...dissipated

$$
forecaster Avila

[Bane]

...Ernesto weakens as it moves farther inland...
At 11 am EDT...1500 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning from south of
Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida Peninsula to Bonita
Beach on the West Coast including Lake Okeechobee and the Florida
Keys has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...the Hurricane Watch from the Savannah River northward
to Cape Fear North Carolina has been discontinued.

At 11 am EDT...a Tropical Storm Warning has been extended northward
and is now in effect from Sebastian Inlet Florida northward and
northeastward along the coast to Cape Fear North Carolina.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 1100 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Depression Ernesto
was estimated near latitude 26.4 north...longitude 80.9 west or
about 55 miles... 85 km...west-southwest of West Palm Beach Florida
and about 115 miles...190 km...east-southeast of Sarasota Florida.

The depression is moving toward the north near 10 mph and this
general motion is expected to continue today along the Florida
Peninsula. On this track the center should move over the Atlantic
waters late tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. No change in strength is forecast while Ernesto is over land
but some intensification could occur on Thursday as the system
moves over the Atlantic.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels
can be expected in areas of onshore flow within the warning area.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over the East Coast of Florida today
and tonight.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are possible near the track of
Ernesto over the Florida Peninsula...with isolated amounts up to 10
inches possible from coastal South Carolina northward and into the
mid Atlantic region with maximum amounts of 12 inches over the next
few days. Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches...with
isolated amounts of 4 inches are possible over the northwestern
Bahamas.

Repeating the 1100 am EDT position...26.4 N...80.9 W. Movement
toward...north near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 200 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 500
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Evil Jeremy]

i knew that the hurricane watch would be cancelled. as i said before, Florida will demolish this thing.

[Aquawind]

RAINFALL TOTALS SO FAR WITH ERNESTO HAVE NOT BEEN OVERLY IMPRESSIVE BUT LEERY ABOUT GOING TOO LIGHT WITH PCPN AHEAD OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT HAS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION. THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR PCPN TO INTENSIFY AND GROW MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG THE TRACK OF THE SLOW MOVG ERNESTO...OR FOR AN INFLOW BAND ALONG THE EAST OR WEST COAST OF FL TO SET UP OVR THE SAME AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS. IN CASE...3 TO 5 INCH RAINS WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM OVR THE FL PENINSULA AND LOCALIZED AMTS EXCEEDING 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY. KORTY

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fous30.KWBC.html

[teal61]

Man, I'm confused. Looking at the radar, I would have thought the center was southwest of where they put it at 11:00am. Is that the mlc east of Naples or what?

[Sanibel]

Steady moderate rains here almost no wind on weak west side of TD.

[sfwx]

http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?se ... ude=-80.9+

Center at 11:00 a.m.

[mtm4319]

Tropical Depression Ernesto Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 30, 2006


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 26.4n 80.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 80.5w 35 kt...inland

So... they think it's going to re-strengthen into a TS while inland?

[Stormavoider]

I believe that those are some of the smaller vorticies rotating around the center. The center seems to be near Bella Glade...

Yes - it's very dispirganized and thus the optical illusions some are seeing. Tried to point this put last night when some were bent on this thing going to the Gulf (and not the upper keys) but they just don't seem to listen. I guess that's why I don't see any more posts from the Pro Mets...

I guess anyone other tha jschiltz and the promets should just read the NHC updates and keep their observations to themselves.

[curtadams]

Tropical Depression Ernesto Discussion Number 24

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 30, 2006


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 30/1500z 26.4n 80.9w 30 kt
12hr VT 31/0000z 28.5n 80.5w 35 kt...inland

So... they think it's going to re-strengthen into a TS while inland?

Avila obviously disagrees strongly with Stewart's earlier forecast. I think he just didn't drop the forecast future intensities enough. I doubt Avila's predicting strengthening.

[Thunder44]

Frankly, I've lost much interest in this storm and I don't why some are more concern about this weak storm, than a major hurricane striking Mexico. It is not likely to get organized enough to intensify much more when it gets offshore. It's primarly going to be a heavy rainfall event for the Carolinas and up the east coast.

[bjackrian]

From a pure sat prespective, Ernesto hasn't looked this good in days! winds still gusting to 50mph+ on the coast (buoys).


30/13 FWYF1 25.7 -79.8 27.6 190 38 G 44 190 46 1007.6 1.3 29.4 FWYF1

sustained: 44 mph
30 sec gust: 51 mph
peak gust: 53mph
4 buoys still gusting at or over TS force for 14Z obs.

Impressive winds, but unimpressive pressure (1007.6 if I'm reading that correctly?). What's driving 40+ mph winds without a huge pressure gradient? Are we talking thunderstorm downbursts rather than true TC winds?

Are you asking a legitimate question or are you just trying to play?

If it were even a possiblity of being spot or inconsistent data why would I post it? Also did you look at the buoy information before you asked the question. It is much easier to question something, than to go look for yourself. I see that you are new here so let me give you a little of advice. You will gain more respect if you actually add something to the board rather than asking questions before even looking at the data.

I was asking an honest question--I did look at the buoy data, and it makes sense that not all of them would be so high with thunderstorms. I wasn't trying to question your data or your conclusions--I'm just trying to understand why a storm with a relatively high pressure still has a decent windfield.

Honestly wasn't trying to critique you or offend you--just expand my own knowledge.

[cpdaman]

here's my take on ernesto

ok florida did not destroy ernesto

ull shear then hispanola then cuba did. he never got a good circulation going. in his earlier stronger days he was facing higher shear and the circulation was over the far western side of convection

then as the shear waned a bit the mountain of hispanola took there toll on his circulation and some dry air was also entrained. then after he had more favorable condtions and started to strengthen again he took a joy ride through cuba, for his sake shear was still low but the 20 hours over cuba basically ripped apart his LLC. he did REORGANIZE over the waters of the gulf stream but that did not really translate into strengthening per se (winds) however. the reflection of a storm does not mirror how favorable of enviornment he is in NOW. it reflects his enviornement and where he Has been recently. ernesto's pressure dropped to 1001 mb as it stalled north of marathon last nite and the LLC became more pronounced. imo as a result of his travels over the gulf stream in previous hours.

the bottom line was ernesto was really a depression over cuba and based on pressure was probably became a weak tropical storm late last nite and into the morning hours, and in the last few hours he is back down to a depression although he is still relatively intact (for him) this is oviously just my opinion, and the TWC would be smart to maintain his TS status over cuba because intensity forecasts are unreliable and they had to protect the public and keep the intrest up given the unknown potential to possibly become a hurricane again

p.s sw florida is getting a ton of rain and this morning winds are the highest they have been for reporting stations

[jasons2k]

I believe that those are some of the smaller vorticies rotating around the center. The center seems to be near Bella Glade...

Yes - it's very dispirganized and thus the optical illusions some are seeing. Tried to point this put last night when some were bent on this thing going to the Gulf (and not the upper keys) but they just don't seem to listen. I guess that's why I don't see any more posts from the Pro Mets...

I guess anyone other tha jschiltz and the promets should just read the NHC updates and keep their observations to themselves.

I could opine a real nice juicy reply to that, but I'll hold my tongue. I think the pros have been chased far enough away with all the bickering, etc. the last few days.

[cpdaman]

looks like ole ernesto is becoming a hybrid strom (based on the loop below)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

and i think his motion due north is about to turn north east

and exit between cocoa and fortpierce seems most likely IMO