TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9
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- Tropical Depression
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It's kind of funny that all the warnings/watches and such have all been discontinued down here in So. FL and yet we are just starting to experience the windiest and rainiest conditions yet with this system...far more than anything we saw yesterday and overnight. So the general public thinks were in the clear just because an organized system doesn't threaten anymore according to NHC standards but they are still in for some very squally and dangerous driving weather and will of course get caught going out to the mall in it!
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- Tropical Storm
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it's tuff to tell if forward speed picked up or if a more egg like center has just tilted/rotated to the left
either way north palm beach and martin county about to get it's worst weather yet
lake worth peir barometer 29.71 and fowey rock to the south sustained 32 kts still so expect some gusts near the beach of 40-45 mph
either way north palm beach and martin county about to get it's worst weather yet
lake worth peir barometer 29.71 and fowey rock to the south sustained 32 kts still so expect some gusts near the beach of 40-45 mph
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- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
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Ha, I told you exiting FL between WPB and Ft Pierce...
Trapping, I hope not...recurving east of the NHC track, I hope so... Both are possible. Also still possible is a Cat 1 HC into SC. I know what the latest guidance says, but look at the synoptics and it is still possible. 2 things would eliminate the possibilities. If it gets blocked while still over FL and the front "aborbs" it i.e. becomes extra-tropical, or if it slips around teh ridge periphery and tracks east of the NHC track up the Peninsula. Both of those mean a lot of rain and flooding in FL.

Trapping, I hope not...recurving east of the NHC track, I hope so... Both are possible. Also still possible is a Cat 1 HC into SC. I know what the latest guidance says, but look at the synoptics and it is still possible. 2 things would eliminate the possibilities. If it gets blocked while still over FL and the front "aborbs" it i.e. becomes extra-tropical, or if it slips around teh ridge periphery and tracks east of the NHC track up the Peninsula. Both of those mean a lot of rain and flooding in FL.
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- Tropical Storm
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- Category 5
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My family was wondering the same thing.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- storms in NC
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cinlfla wrote:cpdaman wrote:can any promets let me know if i am on crack
is it me or could this thing be blocked from going up to the carolinas and is there any indications of this being a possibility that u can see this thing kind of stalling off of canaveral
Was it forecasted to stall, I must have missed that memo. I hope someone answers your post I would like to know the same thing
Not to stall till NC-Va I think that is what they said. But thing have changed in the last few hours and I am try to get a hand on it for I was away for a few hours.They may have to put the hurricane watch back up for us.
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The worst should be here by 8 PM according to Tom Terry.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Wthrman13
- Professional-Met
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Thatsmrhurricane wrote:So there can be enhanced "convection" and an increase in "organization" but as long as it is overland it will weaken as to winds?
More or less. What also happens over land is the circulation is cut off from the source of heat and moisture from the sea surface, which is what ultimately drives the storm. So any enhancement in convection and organization is only temporary as long as the center stays over land. In rare cases, the mid-level vortex of the TC can persist long after the low-level vortex decays, as in the case of Hurricane Danny in 1997, and upon exiting the coast over the Atlantic (even a little bit before), the storm quickly regained a low-level circulation and tropical storm status.
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- storms in NC
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- BensonTCwatcher
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- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Aug 28, 2004 10:11 pm
- Location: Southport NC
- storms in NC
- S2K Supporter
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- BensonTCwatcher
- Category 5
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- Location: Southport NC
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