TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[cpdaman]

i think this will have an effect similiar to a strong noreaster when it gets up to sc/nc

seas will be much higher than they were over fl, and probably more widespread and slightly higher winds (40's) imo

[storms in NC]

It smells water. I think the lake is only about 30 miles from the coast. Not really sure but it is not far.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I am not writing this booger off, I was hoping for a collapsed circulation at this point, but I don't see it

[storms in NC]

Don't care much about the wind. It is the rain. The creek is full and the river is high and that is not a good thing. Creek is about 400 yard from my back door and river North Cape Fear River is under a 1/2 mile from my back door

[stormtruth]

Impressive blow-up of convection just west of Lake Okeechobee
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[gatorcane]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

[storms in NC]

I give it 2 hours and it will be half way back over the water

[BensonTCwatcher]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

Just think how surprised they will be IF we see a hurricane in the morning...

[gatorcane]

I give it 2 hours and it will be half way back over the water

and shortly after over the Gulf Stream

[storms in NC]

Well I don't think a hurricane but a strong TS at the less

[cpdaman]

i'm afraid this may not get over much water

look at it's track

guys just like we thought is was going to cross cuba in like 6 hours go with NHC they think it could get over the atlantic tonite and that would be off jacksonville and only give it a short time over water. glades county is getting socked right now

[storms in NC]

I don't think so it will be off in the water before 6-7pm tonight.

[HurricaneHunter914]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

Are those wind speeds?

[hazmat]

Highlands County getting socked too...TWC streaming flash flood warning...torrential rain of 3 inches per hr. The lightening is unbelivable as well. About to shut off the computer. Hope people are paying attention...even a little TS/TD can cause probs. Thanx for all the wonderful innfo here.

[SouthFLTropics]

I for one am very glad things turned out the way they did. This was a good test for preparedness and it seems like everyone passed with flying colors. Almost everyone in my neighborhood put their shutters up, including myself. I really didn't think that I'd need them but the fact remains that we were under a hurricane watch. I took it as an opportunity to get them out, dust them off, and clean that corner of the garage where they are stored. Plus, I've gotten pretty good at putting them up. I can place them in under an hour normally. I just hope that people across South Florida don't become complacent because this didn't turn out to be a big event.

[storms in NC]

It is growing and not far from going into water

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[SCMedic]

I am in agreement with SouthFLTropics....I'm glad this didn't turn out terrible for Florida..

BUT!

The Weather Channel did just mention at the 2:50 Tropical Update that they were VERY suprised that it has held together as well as it has. They said it has a very distinct LLC still and that the strong convection has them a little more suspicious of what the Carolina's might see.. Even made mention of a possible Cat1.

Also, the LLC is currently just west of Vero Beach, and slated to move offshore just north of Vero beach in the next 4 hours...

[HurricaneHunter914]

A CAT-ONE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[storms in NC]

NO way. strong TS maybe.
You I don't have cable so any Info would be nice this is all I have.

[O Town]

I think some people today may just be surprised that Ernesto's wind field seems to be getting stronger and is very persistent, not like Wilma where she was gone in just 6 hours or so - look at some of the gusts across south florida (40mph at PBI in the Palm Beachs Intl Airport)

W PALM BEACH CLOUDY 83 73 72 S23G40 29.72R
FT LAUDER-EXEC LGT RAIN 78 73 84 S21G36 29.76R
FT LAUDERDALE LGT RAIN 79 73 82 S21G31 29.78R
POMPANO BEACH LGT RAIN 82 72 71 SW26G36 29.76R
PEMBROKE PINES LGT RAIN 77 74 90 S21G29 29.80R
OPA LOCKA RAIN 77 74 90 S21G28 29.81S
MIAMI RAIN 77 73 87 S15G23 29.82R
WEST KENDALL RAIN 76 73 91 SW17G24 29.82R FOG
HOMESTEAD LGT RAIN 75 75 100 SW15G23 29.84S

Are those wind speeds?

First 3 are tempatures, then is the wind direction and speed and then gusts followed by the pressures.

Some strong gusts there, but all the pressures seem to be steady or rising.