nc hurricane fans

[huricanwatcher]

BAD T-STORMS HERE, AND MORE ON THE WAY AND THIS ISNT EVEN THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH

oh this is going to be one long thursday coming up

[storms in NC]

Yes, one of the scenarios is further up coast in which could lead to Cat 1 at landfall. But what concerns me most is the massive rainfall predicted. Then I remember the Dennis Fran one two punch. NC would be in a lot of trouble if another hurricane threatens us within a couple weeks.

Floyd not fran

[huricanwatcher]

hush storms in NC, thats a bad word

[storms in NC]

BAD T-STORMS HERE, AND MORE ON THE WAY AND THIS ISNT EVEN THE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH

oh this is going to be one long thursday coming up

Yes it is and I think it will be very bad here if come in at Cape Fear

[storms in NC]

I know it is I lost my home to Floyd took us 1 1/2 years to rebuild. Water was here for 11 days. Now you see why I am worried over the rain. The NE Cape fear river is full and it is not far from me about 1/2 mile behind the house and we have a creek that runs into the river and it is high too and it is 400 feet or so from the house

[huricanwatcher]

storms in NC, Better start packing sand bags.... LOTS AND LOTS of sandbags...

[NCgreenhead]

Luckily most rivers are well below flood stage so even with widespread 3-10" amounts the flooding should not be even close to what 1999 was, in my backyard we dumped the 8" rain gauge 2 times and it was almost full again in just under a day during Floyd. Also that was after Dennis and the Tar River was already 3-4 ft above flood stage ( around 14ft in G,ville) when Floyd hit where as the current stage at Greenvile is 3.5 ft.

I had a bet with my brother that Ernesto would be a weak cat 1 hitting around the NC/SC border and that I felt wind gust 55+ would be possible in G'ville so it looks like I might be enjoying my crow and out a 12pk of Miller based on the 5 pm discussion I felt the conditions are pretty good for quick stengthing but if he stays west or on NHC track he will not have enough time to get going good again most likely.

[huricanwatcher]

NCgreenhead, Think hes already east of the forcast track and early to the Atlantic.. . OH BOY

[NCgreenhead]

NCgreenhead, Think hes already east of the forcast track and early to the Atlantic.. . OH BOY

It is interesting that he seems to be getting better organized over land and does seem to have a bit of east lean at the moment and we have seen storms go from weak TS to hurricanes in a day or less so anything is possible. It is getting late in the game though so if this bust and he goes a little east and does gain strength fast we are not going to have a long time to get ready and you will see a real rush at the stores if they call for a CAT 1 or 2 at landfall. Remember they are lousy at forecasting intensity and I stress for everyone in SC/NC to pay close attention because we may wake up to a problem instead of a pest. That said the NHC is pretty good inside of 48hrs so it would take a pretty big miss on their part for this to go from a 45kt TS to a 75-80kt hurricane.

[ncbird]

[huricanwatcher]

996 pressure reading on ol Ernie ... from Palm Beach weather station .... BURST ..

[UpTheCreek]

The promets have been a bit quiet about the strengthening of Ernesto...I think it may be taking everyone by surprise?

Can anyone shed some light on what happens when Ernesto meets up with our front up here in NC? Can it stall Ernesto?

Thanks!

[Pileus]

Hey Wolfray, never happen again. BTW, come watch us bury the tar holes
year after year starting in 07. Best of luck.

[rainbird]

The promets have been a bit quiet about the strengthening of Ernesto...I think it may be taking everyone by surprise?

Can anyone shed some light on what happens when Ernesto meets up with our front up here in NC? Can it stall Ernesto?

Thanks!

I have heard through either our local weather met (Channel 7) out of Greenville, NC/Washington, NC area and TWC - when Ernesto meets up with the cold front - Ernesto will stall at the NC/VA boarder

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks Rainbird.....haven't watched anything local yet tonight. Could get ugly.....I'm sure you're gotting wacked by the t-storms down in Jacksonville as well.

[THead]

Thanks Rainbird.....haven't watched anything local yet tonight. Could get ugly.....I'm sure you're gotting wacked by the t-storms down in Jacksonville as well.

Yeah, looks like you guys up in NC are getting "pre-soaked" for Ernesto. Just saw the radar on TWC, looks like some serious T-Storm activity.

[rainbird]

Thanks Rainbird.....haven't watched anything local yet tonight. Could get ugly.....I'm sure you're gotting wacked by the t-storms down in Jacksonville as well.

You are welcome - no problem - spent the afternoon getting prepared for whatever the storm will bring - at the same time keeping an eye for the weather - especially on Storm2k - may be another late night -

[NCgreenhead]

996 pressure is a anomoly most pressure in that area around 1002 mb so I think the best thing to do is give it about 12-18 hrs and see where we stand if it goes in where the forecast has it going in at then the wind impact will be minor here even if it was a weak Cat 1 so rain still looks to be main threat of course all bets are off if he comes up east of track a miss 30-50 miles east of NHC track would move landfall quite a bit north and greatly change our effects.

[huricanwatcher]

Lets all go back in time.. Dennis was a tropical depression.... that just stuck around forever ..... (ok we getting cold front from north bound to bring much rain) ... and then Floyd... what Cat was he? ..... not that its going to be that bad of a senario... but you have to wonder -

Ernie is going to stall right on top of us..... OH JOY

[ncbird]

Lets all go back in time.. Dennis was a tropical depression.... that just stuck around forever ..... (ok we getting cold front from north bound to bring much rain) ... and then Floyd... what Cat was he? ..... not that its going to be that bad of a senario... but you have to wonder -

Ernie is going to stall right on top of us..... OH JOY

Here is the history of Dennis & Floyd

Quoted from the Monthly Tropical Weather Summary, National Weather Serivice Miami FL, 8 am EDT WED SEP 01 1999

“DENNIS FORMED IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATE ON THE 23RD. THE SYSTEM MOVED SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 24TH...AND A HURRICANE EARLY ON THE 26TH. DENNIS REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 MPH... CATEGORY TWO...ON THE AFTERNOON OF THE 28TH AND MAINTAINED THIS INTENSITY UNTIL EARLY ON THE 30TH WHILE PARALLELING THE LOWER SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. THE HURRICANE LASHED THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST ON THE 30TH AND PART OF THE 31ST WITH SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WITH GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE...LARGE WAVES AND HIGH SURF. THE HURRICANE TURNED NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE COAST ON THE MORNING OF THE 30TH...THEN BEGAN TO ACCELERATE LATER THAT DAY WHILE MOVING TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST. DENNIS STALLED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA ON THE MORNING OF THE 31ST AND THEN BEGAN TO DRIFT WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. AS THE MONTH CONCLUDED... TROPICAL STORM DENNIS WAS DRIFTING WESTWARD ABOUT 100 MILES EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS.”


Quoted from the Monthly Tropical Weather Summary, National Weather Serivice Miami FL, 8 am EDT FRI OCT 1 1999

“AFTER LASHING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA AS A HURRICANE AT THE END OF AUGUST...TROPICAL STORM DENNIS MEANDERED ABOUT 90 TO 100 MILES EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH 2 SEPTEMBER. BY 4 SEPTEMBER DENNIS RE-INTENSIFIED AS IT TURNED BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND MADE LANDFALL AS A 70 MPH TROPICAL STORM ON THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...ABOUT 35 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF MOREHEAD CITY. DENNIS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION EARLY ON THE 5TH WHILE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...AND DISSIPATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA ON 6 SEPTEMBER.”


“HURRICANE FLOYD FORMED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE WHICH MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA ON 2 SEPTEMBER. THE SYSTEM BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON 7 SEPTEMBER ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. IT STRENGTHENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM EARLY THE NEXT DAY WHILE LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO A HURRICANE ABOUT 240 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS. FLOYD TURNED FROM A WESTWARD TO A NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...AND ITS INTENSIFICATION TREND TEMPORARILY HALTED. HOWEVER AS FLOYD TURNED BACK TO THE WEST IT STRENGTHENED INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...AND THEN TO A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE...WITH 155 MPH WINDS. WEAKENING ONLY SLIGHTLY...THE HURRICANE RAVAGED PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ON 13-14 SEPTEMBER...AND POSED A SERIOUS THREAT TO FLORIDA. FLOYD TURNED TO A NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD COURSE WHILE SLOWLY EAKENING...EVENTUALLY MAKING LANDFALL NEAR CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA AS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AROUND 230 AM EDT 16 SEPTEMBER. THE HURRICANE MOVED OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THAT STATE AND ACCELERATED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UP THE COAST...WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND AND LOSING ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EARLY ON THE 17TH. FLOYD IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MASSIVE INLAND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES... PARTICULARLY IN NORTH CAROLINA.”