Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[shah8]

Check out the latest images. I think the bombing out stage has started...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Katrina only lasted for about 12 to 18 hours like this at tops...This has lasted nearly 5 days like this.

[MiamiensisWx]

Based on water vapor and infra-red imagery, the ERC may be about to end. Also, based on this loop, as the upper-level trough to the north pulls out, shear may decrease, allowing further organization and some intensification. Based on the synoptics, this may come VERY close to breaking the record for maintaining Category Four/Category Five status. You can see a new moderate anticyclonic flow developing, favoring further development.

Amazing storm.

[AnnularCane]

My goodness. How long has she been around?

[Trugunzn]

that thing is a monster:

[Trugunzn]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I think since the 19th of August. Over 5 days as a cat4 or above...This thing looked stronger then Katrina 3 times through out its life. I don't think there will be a island called wake after this blows through. In I mean look at what Katrina did to the islands southeast LA. This is stronger.

[wxmann_91]

It has not been anything below a Cat 4 since around 10Z Aug 24, just based on satellite imagery analysis (my thinking). It was a Cat 4 on August 21 as well.

[WindRunner]

Anyone seeing our pentagram of mesovortices in the eye? This is one monster . . . sure as heck isn't JTWC's 135kts! And still think this needs a 110 from JMA as well . . . this is the best it's looked ever.



EDIT: click for the bigger picture.

[Dave C]

The latest visable from the navy site shows the new bigger eye of Ioke. About 20 hrs from closest approach to Wake Island. Steve Lyons showed a map of the island recently, would be interesting to see whats left afterward.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

[bostonseminole]

30/2033 UTC 18.3N 168.7E T6.5/6.5 IOKE -- West Pacific Ocean

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would also give this at least 110-115 knots 10 minute at its peak. I agree that the cdo doe not look as organized as earlier. So maybe 130-135 one minute knots. But once this thing strengthen again into 145 to 150 knot typhoon when its moving over Wake.

After looking at what katrina did I don't think there will be a island.

[bostonseminole]

WTPN31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 01C (IOKE) WARNING NR 044
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 18.1N 169.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 169.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.9N 167.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7N 165.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 20.6N 163.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 21.4N 161.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 23.1N 155.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 25.1N 151.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 27.9N 148.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 168.8E.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
160 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 50 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z.//

[JonathanBelles]

50 feet???

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

thsoe Pacific Islands have very deep water just offshore for the most part. The island wont be lost forever.

Now, Wake may be flattened

[bostonseminole]

T0612 (IOKE)
Issued at 21:00 UTC 30 Aug 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 302100UTC 18.3N 168.8E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST

FORECAST
24HF 312100UTC 20.4N 165.1E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 011800UTC 21.7N 161.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 021800UTC 23.6N 155.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT

[Sanibel]

Good thing that wasn't Ernesto coming down on the Keys! (LOL)


Is this impacting Wake Island with a near category 5 hit?

[CentralFlGal]

Cutter Galveston Island Swaps Guam For Honolulu Homeport
U.S. Coast Guard | August 30, 2006

Honolulu, HI. - The Coast Guard Cutter Galveston Island's crew Friday sailed the 110-foot patrol boat into Honolulu Harbor following a two-week transit from Guam.

As one of the Fourteenth District's Pacific guardians, the Galveston Island carried out the Coast Guard's operational missions of maritime safety, marine environmental protection, law enforcement, and national security in the Marianas.

The Galveston Island was transferred to Honolulu when the Honolulu-based Washington and Assateague, also 110-foot patrol boats, were transferred to Guam. The 16-person crew of the Galveston Island switched cutters with the crew of the Washington. The Assateague's 16-person crew and their families were transferred to Guam.

The Galveston Island and its crew were escorted for the open ocean voyage by the Coast Guard buoytender Kukui. Midway through the transit, the two cutters were diverted for four days to assist in the search for four missing fisherman from Pohnpei.

The cutters then stopped in Majuro to support several community projects before continuing to Honolulu. While en route here, the cutters has to sail southeast to avoid Hurricane Ioke.

Source: http://www.military.com/features/0,15240,111848,00.html

[CentralFlGal]

NASA Earth Observatory Storm and Technology Background:

Super Typhoon Ioke

Hurricane Ioke started as all tropical cyclones do, as a depression—an area of low atmospheric pressure. After forming on August 19, 2006, the depression quickly developed into a tropical storm, the threshold for earning a name. Ioke is the Hawaiian word for the name “Joyce.” Storms and hurricanes in the central Pacific are unusual, but they occur often enough for there to be a naming convention, applied by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center in Honolulu. The last named central Pacific storm was Huko in 2002. Ioke rose all the way to hurricane strength in less than 24 hours.

This image of Hurricane Ioke shows the powerful Category 4 hurricane as it was passing south of the Hawaiian Islands. The image was taken by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite at 20:45 UTC (9:45 a.m. HST) on August 21, 2006, and it shows the horizontal pattern of rain intensity within Ioke. Rain rates in the center of the swath are from the TRMM Precipitation Radar, and those in the outer swath come from the TRMM Microwave Imager. The rain rates are overlaid on infrared data from the TRMM Visible Infrared Scanner. A well-defined eye (dark center) marks the center of Ioke. This eye is surrounded by an area of very intense rain on the western side, which is part of the eyewall (dark red arc). Rain bands spiral inwards towards the center (large blue arcs) and transition into an area of moderate rain (green area) as they approach the eyewall. These features are typical of a mature, intense hurricane. At the time of this image, Ioke was estimated to have sustained winds of 184 kilometers per hour (132 miles per hour) by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

The TRMM satellite was placed into service in November 1997. From its low-earth orbit, TRMM has been providing valuable images and information on storm systems around the tropics using a combination of passive microwave and active radar sensors, including the first precipitation radar in space. TRMM is a joint mission between NASA and the Japanese space agency, JAXA.

Images produced by Hal Pierce (SSAI/NASA GSFC) and caption by Steve Lang (SSAI/NASA GSFC).
Source: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/shownh.php3?img_id=13800

[WindRunner]

I would also give this at least 110-115 knots 10 minute at its peak. I agree that the cdo doe not look as organized as earlier. So maybe 130-135 one minute knots. But once this thing strengthen again into 145 to 150 knot typhoon when its moving over Wake.

After looking at what katrina did I don't think there will be a island.

I can certainly agree with you here, Matt. However, I think the CDO, while not looking as organized as earlier (or as cold for that matter) still looks like a borderline soon-to-be Cat 5, with the only holdback the dry air entrained in the NW quad (maybe from land interaction with Wake? ). I also agree that it should strengthen as it is approaching Wake, though we'll probably never see it pass the 140kt mark. And yes, Sanibel, Ioke should be at or very close to a Cat 5 when it hits Wake, though Wake will probably get the weaker side of the storm/eyewall, if not a brush with the eye.