TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

N2DaTropics · #221 Postby **N2DaTropics** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:33 pm

wxman57 wrote:
calamity wrote:I haven't seen an updated spaghetti model map posted in this topic yet. Can someone please post one? (Oh, and don't post an image of the models from wunderground; I'm already aware of those.) Thanks.

Here you go. Not much change. I removed the BAM & LBAR models. One thing I notice is that Ernesto never looked stronger than it is now. Storms forming near the core. It's certainly a lot stronger than when the NHC called it a TS by Cuba. Outflow appears excellent, too. Watch for it to explode when it moves offshore. Could well be a hurricane when it reaches the Carolinasl

I have to say that I'm really shocked at how well Ernesto has held together after being over land for about 16 hours or so...if I lived in South Carolina I think I'd really be battening down the hatches right now...I'll be surprised if he doesn't make Cat 1 status before he gets there...

#222 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 4:38 pm

is this the first times that there have been around 20, 25 page threads on a system from Invest till now?

Trugunzn · #223 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:01 pm

Convection continues to grow, just amazon how it gained so much convection over land. How far from getting to the ocean?

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #224 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:01 pm

Ok, I think its about ready to come off shore over the next 6 hours...The Eastern Quad of the LLC is already off shore. This thing is more intense then it was when it moved onshore. At least the LLC. If it gets off in takes more of a shot at NC then SC like the nhc is saying. This thing could be a hurricane by the time it gets there. We will see but this storm is not acting the way you would expect.

#225 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:06 pm

Convection continues to grow, just amazon how it gained so much convection over land. How far from getting to the ocean?

The center is in the water now some of it still on land not all the way off yet

jpigott · #226 Postby **jpigott** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:06 pm

looks like palm beach county may finally get in on some of the rain action before Ernesto leaves us. Let's just hope one of those big convective feeder bands doesn't set up over the same area as Ernesto pulls away

Trugunzn · #227 Postby **Trugunzn** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:08 pm

Boynton Beach reporting pressure of 996mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLBOYNT1

#228 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:12 pm

Rainband · #229 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:13 pm

N2DaTropics wrote:
I have to say that I'm really shocked at how well Ernesto has held together after being over land for about 16 hours or so...if I lived in South Carolina I think I'd really be battening down the hatches right now...I'll be surprised if he doesn't make Cat 1 status before he gets there...

Daytime Heating is what helped Ernesto Keep what little punch he had. It was a practice run. The Gulf Stream is warm but he will be moving at a good clip. Anything is possible though.

#230 Postby **webke** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:13 pm

Boynton Beach reporting pressure of 996mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLBOYNT1

Is this reading right according to the graph it has been showing less than 1000mb since this morning?

Hurricaneman · #231 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:14 pm

im now thinking a cat 1 85mph storm for Charleston at the worst, but it most likely be 65 mph looking at reality

cinlfla · #232 Postby **cinlfla** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:18 pm

I agree I think ernesto could be a cat 1 when it hits S Carolina. I just lookedat the visable loop to my eyes this is the best Ernesto has looked in days. Hmmm, imagine that over land too.

huricanwatcher · #233 Postby **huricanwatcher** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:19 pm

IS THERE ANY WATER LEFT IN LAKE OAKACHOBEE?

#234 Postby **Hurricanevideo** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:22 pm

webke wrote:
Boynton Beach reporting pressure of 996mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLBOYNT1

Is this reading right according to the graph it has been showing less than 1000mb since this morning?

Maybe a personal weather station. The barometer might need to be calibrated.

Thunder44 · #235 Postby **Thunder44** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:23 pm

Trugunzn wrote:Boynton Beach reporting pressure of 996mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLBOYNT1

That looks bogus. Pressure running consitently lower for awhile.

Hurricaneman · #236 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:24 pm

since it reads 996 mbs, it may be bogus, now if it read 999, that would be plausible

#237 Postby **bjackrian** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:25 pm

Hurricanevideo wrote:
webke wrote:
Boynton Beach reporting pressure of 996mb:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLBOYNT1

Is this reading right according to the graph it has been showing less than 1000mb since this morning?

Maybe a personal weather station. The barometer might need to be calibrated.

If you look through the history, you'll find that the pressure at this station has been at or below 1005 mb for pretty much the entire month of August--methinks it might need to be calibrated. :wink:

AZRainman · #238 Postby **AZRainman** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:30 pm

Melbourne International Airport, FL,
Pressure (altimeter) 29.61 in. Hg (1002 hPa)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Vero Beach Municipal Airport, FL
Pressure (altimeter) 29.58 in. Hg (1001 hPa)
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KVRB.html

#239 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:34 pm

There's a station on the eastern shore of Lake Okeechobee reporting 35kt westerly winds now. No doubt at all that Ernesto is stronger than it was for the 24-36 hours that it was called a TS near Cuba.

#240 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 30, 2006 5:35 pm

Why can't they update it?

TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

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