TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[AJC3]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

The numbers I've been giving y'all have been from our OID that's connected to the KMLB ASOS. It bottomed out at 1001.0 and is now hovering at 1001.0-1001.1.

[ThunderMate]

Is it me or is the center east of the forcast track a bit?? By the way my local met said 6-9 inches of rain here which i think could be a bit conservative considering the stalled front over the VA/NC boarder with ernesto moving straight into it.... If ernie stalls over the NC/VA boarder like some mets have mentions then could we see another floyd like system in terms of rainfall??

[huricanwatcher]

iM TELLING YA'LL (oops did i just say that) I posted almost a bet on other thread... 8pm = TS status

[Trugunzn]

Is it me or is the center east of the forcast track a bit?? By the way my local met said 6-9 inches of rain here which i think could be a bit conservative considering the stalled front over the VA/NC boarder with ernesto moving straight into it.... If ernie stalls over the NC/VA boarder like some mets have mentions then could we see another floyd like system in terms of rainfall??

Looks like just alittle bit south of the officail NHC track

[Thunder44]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

The numbers I've been giving y'all have been from our OID that's connected to the KMLB ASOS. It bottomed out at 1001.0 and is now hovering at 1001.0-1001.1.

But don't you take 1mb off for surface winds more than 10kts?

[AJC3]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

The numbers I've been giving y'all have been from our OID that's connected to the KMLB ASOS. It bottomed out at 1001.0 and is now hovering at 1001.0-1001.1.

But don't you take 1mb off for surface winds more than 10kts?

Ah, I see what you're saying - missed the "at the center" part of your post.
Yeah, plus there's a home site west of here that bottomed out at 1000.6 so that's probably a pretty decent SWAG at the SLP right now.

[storms in NC]

Is it me or is the center east of the forcast track a bit?? By the way my local met said 6-9 inches of rain here which i think could be a bit conservative considering the stalled front over the VA/NC boarder with ernesto moving straight into it.... If ernie stalls over the NC/VA boarder like some mets have mentions then could we see another floyd like system in terms of rainfall??

Looks like just alittle bit south of the officail NHC track

South and east In water. At 5pm point of center which is not the real time they sent it out but any way it is 7:30 and by radar it is over water now just above Melbourne. They said it also on TWC it would come out around there. Said this about 3PM or so

[Trugunzn]

WRF Makes it 983MB:

[Thunder44]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

The numbers I've been giving y'all have been from our OID that's connected to the KMLB ASOS. It bottomed out at 1001.0 and is now hovering at 1001.0-1001.1.

But don't you take 1mb off for surface winds more than 10kts?

Ah, I see what you're saying - missed the "at the center" part of your post.
Yeah, plus there's a home site west of here that bottomed out at 1000.6 so that's probably a pretty decent SWAG at the SLP right now.

Exactly. 8pm Advisory has pressure of 1000mb too, with the center just NW of Melbourne.

[Downdraft]

Tony I have a feeling people in the "biz' will be talking about Ernesto for a long time to come. One of the most incredibly difficult storms to forecast to come along, a storm that just wouldn't die and a track that climitology would suggest should not have happened considering the point of origin and the time of year. Amazing little cyclone barely describes this system I think. Just when we begin to think we have these storms nailed from a forecast point of view alongs comes Ernesto to prove Mother Nature still calls all the shots.

[brunota2003]

The Little Cyclone That Could...And Did...question is, how does he finish his life off? After the next landfall, he will most likely die...(notice didnt say 100% die...as this storm just refuses to die...)

[brunota2003]

7:10 EST Pressure at 1001mb with wind ESE at 17mph Gust to 29mph:

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KMLB.html

Pressure now at the center is probably down to 1000mb.

The numbers I've been giving y'all have been from our OID that's connected to the KMLB ASOS. It bottomed out at 1001.0 and is now hovering at 1001.0-1001.1.

Congrats...someone in your area made it into the 8 PM:
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb...29.53 inches.
The National Weather Service forecast office in Melbourne recently
reported a pressure of 1001 mb...29.56 in.

[rnbaida]

this thing is has ben loosing pressure all day... do you think we could have rapid intensification once it hits water??

[Stormavoider]

I heard a couple times today in the media how this storm illustrates the weakness in intensity forecasting. They stressed how it was forecast to be a cat 3 and made US landfall as a weak TS. I think not . This storm indicates track forecasts are not always on the mark. If the track of five days ago verified Ernie would not have been torn apart by the mountains of Haiti and Cuba. If the track into the GOM had verified, the intensity would have likely verified also.

[Sanibel]

I think I figured out why this is enhancing.

If you look at the visible loop there's a real southerly shear just ahead of the approaching front. Like Charley, this could be venting the storm up the face of the front and revving it.

We'll see if this revs it over water.

[Thunder44]

169
WHXX01 KWBC 310022
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060831 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060831 0000 060831 1200 060901 0000 060901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.1N 80.7W 30.7N 79.9W 33.6N 78.7W 36.6N 77.6W
BAMM 28.1N 80.7W 30.5N 80.1W 33.1N 79.0W 35.6N 78.8W
A98E 28.1N 80.7W 30.7N 79.8W 33.4N 78.7W 36.2N 78.0W
LBAR 28.1N 80.7W 30.5N 80.1W 33.1N 79.0W 35.6N 77.6W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 44KTS 52KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 38KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060902 0000 060903 0000 060904 0000 060905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 39.5N 76.4W 44.9N 72.3W 47.4N 63.4W 43.2N 52.2W
BAMM 38.1N 78.9W 42.7N 78.3W 46.7N 73.5W 48.6N 65.3W
A98E 38.6N 77.5W 44.9N 75.7W 50.6N 66.6W 46.4N 51.7W
LBAR 37.5N 76.1W 38.6N 72.0W 39.0N 67.5W 40.2N 63.3W
SHIP 60KTS 68KTS 70KTS 61KTS
DSHP 29KTS 30KTS 30KTS 30KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 28.1N LONCUR = 80.7W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 12KT
LATM12 = 26.0N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 357DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 24.8N LONM24 = 80.4W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 125NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

0z models still have TD

[SouthFloridawx]

looking at the water vapor it looks like there may be a chance for E. to move more East than the projected landfall. But, still within the cone of error. As always if your in the cone you need to pay attention.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

Since the 8PM advisory Ernesto has about 333 miles to go until landfall in south carolina, moving at 15MPH and possibly more as the night goes on that's about 22 hours till landfall. He's got a shot at intensifying but, luckily not too too much time. We'll see what happens. I'm sure we'll know a lot more by the 11PM adivsory.

[cinlfla]

If the center is where your starting point is that looks like its right off of US 1 in Port St John

[Stormavoider]

There is lots of convection gathering around the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=28&lon=-80&info=ir&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=spect.pal

[hurricanedude]

though if he makes landfall in SE NC...then he could be over water several hours longer