Virginia could..

[hurricanedude]

quite possibly be the hardest hit state from ernesto....a stationary front across the VA/NC border has already produced 3-5 inches of rain today....add to ernestos forecast of 8-10in thats about 15 inches of rain...locally higher im sure in spots...add that to the pressure gradient....between the front and ernesto the gradient could produce near hurricane gusts down the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay......a long time resident of that area, I know the areas surrounding the Bay has some unusualy strong winds with such events.......saturated grounds....and even TS winds.....which they will get just from the pressure gradient....i suspect widespread tree damage and significant power outages across central and EXPECIALLY Eastern VA...(TIDEWATER AREA). Might be wise to think about this if you live in Virginia!

[ThunderMate]

I know what you mean....believe it or not TWC optomistic Local Forcast is even saying 50 mph winds with higher gusts. We are forcast to get around 10-12 inches of rain just from ernie not counting tonight and tomm. I am wondering how this pressure gradient is going to set up and i live right on the mouth of the bay and know what can come about from it.... DR. steve lyons has us in 12-16 foot waves tomm. to friday and trust me i am going to go shoot some video!!!

[WindRunner]

I know I am just on the northern fringe of that massive rainfall total blob you guys are getting. A huge batch for the overnight should be starting here in a few mintues, it's been moving north all afternoon - actually, looking out the window, it just started. Havent picked up all that much today, but the NWS forecast is the worst I've heard in a while, and even mentioned some gusts to 40mph in the AFD, and this is well inland. Here's the forecast for Warrenton from LWX:

Tonight: Scattered showers. Cloudy, with a low around 65. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Thursday: A chance of showers, then showers and thunderstorms likely after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 72. Northeast wind between 8 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Thursday Night: Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 64. East wind between 10 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

Friday: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 8am. High near 71. Breezy, with a northeast wind between 14 and 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between three and four inches possible.

Friday Night: Periods of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 8pm. Low around 62. Breezy, with a north wind between 14 and 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between one and two inches possible.

Saturday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 74. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 62. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Sunday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Labor Day: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Monday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a high near 80. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 80.

So not only do we have to put up with Ernesto, but then daily thunderstorm chances for another three days . . . which mean we'll probably get a good dumping on at least once during that time frame, after we get our 8" per the HPC QPFs . . . and I thought August was going to be dry . . .