Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[clfenwi]

URNT12 KNHC 310735
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/07:01:20Z
B. 29 deg 35 min N
080 deg 21 min W
C. 850 mb 1418 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 084 deg 023 kt
G. 349 deg 025 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 18 C/ 1526 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A ERNESTO OB 05
MAX FL WIND 23 KT N QUAD 06:53:50 Z
GOOD BANDING ON RADAR

[stormtruth]

clfenwi -- why were the winds reported in the 20s on the drop? Weren't there some in the 50kt range? The pressure dropped again to 999. Definitely getting stronger.

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 310742
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 19 KNHC
0729. 2901N 07920W 01525 0015 219 048 164 164 048 01573 0000000000
0730 2903N 07919W 01525 0014 218 049 162 162 049 01573 0000000000
0730. 2905N 07919W 01522 0013 219 048 166 166 049 01569 0000000000
0731 2907N 07919W 01525 0012 217 047 166 166 048 01570 0000000000
0731. 2909N 07919W 01525 0012 216 047 166 166 049 01570 0000000000
0732 2911N 07919W 01523 0011 216 045 166 166 046 01568 0000000000
0732. 2913N 07919W 01524 0010 213 046 166 166 047 01568 0000000000
0733 2915N 07919W 01525 0009 212 047 166 166 049 01568 0000000000
0733. 2917N 07918W 01523 0009 213 046 166 166 046 01565 0000000000
0734 2919N 07918W 01524 0008 213 047 166 166 047 01566 0000000000
0734. 2921N 07918W 01525 0007 210 049 164 164 050 01565 0000000000
0735 2923N 07918W 01523 0005 210 049 168 168 050 01562 0000000000
0735. 2925N 07918W 01526 0006 203 049 166 166 050 01565 0000000000
0736 2927N 07918W 01521 0006 205 046 170 170 048 01561 0000000000
0736. 2929N 07918W 01525 0005 201 044 168 168 045 01564 0000000000
0737 2931N 07917W 01525 0005 202 044 168 168 044 01564 0000000000
0737. 2933N 07917W 01523 0005 200 044 168 168 044 01562 0000000000
0738 2935N 07917W 01525 0005 199 044 168 168 045 01563 0000000000
0738. 2937N 07917W 01524 0005 194 046 168 168 047 01562 0000000000
0739 2939N 07917W 01524 0005 197 048 170 170 049 01562 0000000000

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 310752
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
0739. 2941N 07917W 01523 0005 195 045 172 172 045 01561 0000000000
0740 2943N 07917W 01525 0004 191 044 170 170 046 01563 0000000000
0740. 2945N 07916W 01524 0004 188 049 166 166 050 01562 0000000000
0741 2947N 07916W 01524 0004 191 048 168 168 050 01562 0000000000
0741. 2949N 07916W 01522 0005 192 043 162 162 043 01560 0000000000
0742 2951N 07916W 01526 0005 188 043 166 166 044 01564 0000000000
0742. 2953N 07916W 01525 0005 185 043 168 168 044 01564 0000000000
0743 2955N 07916W 01521 0005 182 045 162 162 049 01560 0000000000
0743. 2957N 07915W 01524 0005 181 044 170 170 044 01563 0000000000
0744 2959N 07915W 01524 0006 180 041 172 172 042 01564 0000000000
0744. 3001N 07915W 01524 0007 182 040 172 172 041 01564 0000000000
0745 3003N 07915W 01525 0007 181 040 174 174 042 01566 0000000000
0745. 3005N 07915W 01523 0007 179 043 172 172 043 01564 0000000000
0746 3007N 07915W 01524 0008 183 039 170 170 040 01565 0000000000
0746. 3009N 07915W 01525 0007 180 038 172 172 040 01566 0000000000
0747 3011N 07914W 01525 0008 173 041 164 164 042 01566 0000000000
0747. 3013N 07914W 01522 0008 175 041 170 170 041 01563 0000000000
0748 3015N 07914W 01523 0009 173 040 162 162 041 01565 0000000000
0748. 3017N 07914W 01526 0010 169 037 162 162 039 01569 0000000000
0749 3019N 07914W 01524 0010 164 034 164 164 034 01568 0000000000

[MBismyPlayground]

Stroms truth, Is it getting stronger?? I have no idea how to read these things, the recon reports

[stormtruth]

Stroms truth, Is it getting stronger?? I have no idea how to read these things, the recon reports

Yes, the pressure dropped and it looks much better on satellite. There were some stronger winds found in the recon so I think the winds will be increased to at least 50mph with the 5am advisory.

[MBismyPlayground]

Thanks so much for the info. I think people here are in for a big surprise here in this town in a few hours once they wake up.

[clfenwi]

Supplementary Vortex Data Message
Inbound Ob #1: 31.3°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 59°F; Flt level wind: E (100°) @ 21 mph
Inbound Ob #2: 31.1°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4900 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 16 mph
Inbound Ob #3: 30.8°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 15 mph
Inbound Ob #4: 30.6°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 16 mph
Inbound Ob #5: 30.3°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: ESE (110°) @ 20 mph
Inbound Ob #6: 30.1°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Flt level wind: E (80°) @ 23 mph
Inbound Ob #7: 29.8°N 080.4°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 64°F; Dewpt: 64°F; Flt level wind: E (90°) @ 17 mph


Max flight level wind (Inbound): 26 mph at 30.0°N 080.4°W
First inbound ob surface wind: NA

Outbound Ob #1: 29.2°N 079.9°W; 850mb height: 4700 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 50 mph
Outbound Ob #2: 29.0°N 079.7°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 61°F; Dewpt: 61°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 59 mph
Outbound Ob #3: 28.9°N 079.5°W; 850mb height: 4800 feet; Temp: 63°F; Dewpt: 63°F; Flt level wind: SW (230°) @ 53 mph
Max flight level wind (Outbound): 63 mph at 29.1°N 079.9°W
Last outbound ob surface wind: NA
Storm Name: ERNESTO (05L)
Mission Number: 21
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 09

[clfenwi]

RECCO Observation
Storm Name: ERNESTO (05L)
Mission Number: 21
Flight ID: AF303
Observation Number: 10
Time: 0758Z
Latitude: 30.5°N
Longitude: 79.4°W
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: Clear
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SSE (150°) @ 31 mph
Temperature: 63°F
Dewpoint: 63°F
Weather: Unknown
850mb height: 4800 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 310812
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 22 KNHC
0759. 3031N 07926W 01524 0009 149 027 174 172 028 01566 0000000000
0800 3030N 07927W 01522 0008 153 029 174 168 029 01564 0000000000
0800. 3029N 07928W 01525 0007 148 029 172 172 030 01566 0000000000
0801 3028N 07929W 01525 0007 148 028 162 162 029 01565 0000000000
0801. 3027N 07931W 01523 0006 153 029 172 172 030 01562 0000000000
0802 3026N 07932W 01524 0004 149 030 162 162 032 01562 0000000000
0802. 3025N 07933W 01525 0001 146 029 150 150 033 01560 0000000000
0803 3024N 07935W 01523 0002 150 028 166 166 029 01559 0000000000
0803. 3023N 07936W 01524 0002 154 027 174 174 028 01559 0000000000
0804 3021N 07937W 01525 0000 151 026 176 172 027 01559 0000000000
0804. 3020N 07938W 01523 5001 148 028 180 170 030 01556 0000000000
0805 3019N 07940W 01523 5003 150 030 174 174 031 01554 0000000000
0805. 3018N 07941W 01525 5004 145 028 176 172 029 01555 0000000000
0806 3017N 07942W 01523 5006 146 027 174 174 028 01550 0000000000
0806. 3016N 07944W 01525 5007 144 028 174 174 029 01551 0000000000
0807 3015N 07945W 01522 5010 145 033 168 168 033 01546 0000000000
0807. 3014N 07946W 01526 5011 145 029 170 170 031 01548 0000000000
0808 3013N 07948W 01524 5012 140 029 178 178 030 01545 0000000000
0808. 3011N 07949W 01524 5014 140 031 178 178 032 01543 0000000000
0809 3010N 07950W 01524 5016 141 027 180 180 029 01542 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 310822
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 23 KNHC
0809. 3009N 07952W 01524 5018 132 025 178 178 025 01540 0000000000
0810 3008N 07953W 01525 5019 131 026 176 176 028 01539 0000000000
0810. 3007N 07954W 01523 5022 126 026 178 178 029 01534 0000000000
0811 3006N 07956W 01524 5024 127 026 180 178 026 01533 0000000000
0811. 3004N 07957W 01525 5026 120 023 180 178 024 01532 0000000000
0812 3003N 07958W 01523 5028 118 025 180 180 026 01529 0000000000
0812. 3002N 07959W 01524 5031 117 024 180 180 027 01527 0000000000
0813 3000N 08001W 01524 5033 119 022 180 180 024 01525 0000000000
0813. 2959N 08002W 01525 5035 112 016 182 176 018 01523 0000000000
0814 2958N 08003W 01523 5036 107 016 180 180 017 01521 0000000000
0814. 2956N 08003W 01525 5037 115 015 176 176 015 01521 0000000000
0815 2955N 08004W 01521 5038 136 012 174 174 013 01517 0000000000
0815. 2953N 08005W 01526 5040 133 010 176 176 011 01520 0000000000
0816 2952N 08007W 01523 5041 127 010 176 176 011 01516 0000000000
0816. 2951N 08008W 01523 5042 126 006 178 176 008 01515 0000000000
0817 2950N 08009W 01525 5042 105 004 176 176 005 01517 0000000000
0817. 2948N 08010W 01525 5042 083 002 176 176 003 01516 0000000000
0818 2947N 08012W 01524 5042 005 002 176 176 003 01515 0000000000
0818. 2946N 08013W 01524 5041 354 004 176 176 004 01516 0000000000
0819 2944N 08014W 01524 5041 327 005 176 176 006 01516 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Stroms truth, Is it getting stronger?? I have no idea how to read these things, the recon reports

Yes, the pressure dropped and it looks much better on satellite. There were some stronger winds found in the recon so I think the winds will be increased to at least 50mph with the 5am advisory.

Highest winds found so far where 50kts. They are flying at 850mb so that is 80% reduction to 40kts.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

55 knots at .8 is 44 knots at the surface. So I would expect them to up it to 45 knots.

[clfenwi]

clfenwi -- why were the winds reported in the 20s on the drop? Weren't there some in the 50kt range? The pressure dropped again to 999. Definitely getting stronger.

The highest winds were found in the southeast part of the storm... after the first vortex report.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 310832
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/08:17:00Z
B. 29 deg 49 min N
080 deg 10 min W
C. 850 mb 1412 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 151 deg 033 kt
G. 44 deg 033 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN N
M. C25
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF303 2105A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SW QUAD 07:13:00 Z
RAGGED EYEWALL
;

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 310833
AF303 2105A ERNESTO HDOB 24 KNHC
0819. 2943N 08015W 01525 5040 335 006 176 176 007 01518 0000000000
0820 2942N 08017W 01524 5039 342 008 176 176 009 01519 0000000000
0820. 2941N 08018W 01524 5037 329 009 176 176 010 01520 0000000000
0821 2940N 08020W 01524 5035 324 011 176 176 011 01522 0000000000
0821. 2939N 08021W 01524 5034 320 013 178 176 013 01524 0000000000
0822 2937N 08022W 01523 5033 323 014 174 174 014 01524 0000000000
0822. 2936N 08024W 01525 5032 315 014 172 172 015 01527 0000000000
0823 2935N 08025W 01525 5030 316 015 170 170 016 01528 0000000000
0823. 2934N 08026W 01524 5028 318 018 164 164 019 01529 0000000000
0824 2933N 08028W 01518 5029 311 024 148 148 025 01523 0000000000
0824. 2932N 08029W 01528 5025 298 029 150 150 032 01536 0000000000
0825 2931N 08030W 01524 5024 294 032 154 154 032 01534 0000000000
0825. 2930N 08031W 01526 5023 307 034 152 152 035 01536 0000000000
0826 2928N 08033W 01525 5019 308 035 154 154 035 01540 0000000000
0826. 2927N 08034W 01522 5017 303 038 156 156 040 01539 0000000000
0827 2926N 08035W 01524 5014 302 039 158 158 039 01543 0000000000
0827. 2925N 08037W 01526 5011 303 038 158 158 039 01548 0000000000
0828 2924N 08038W 01520 5009 302 037 174 174 038 01544 0000000000
0828. 2923N 08039W 01528 5006 306 039 170 170 040 01555 0000000000
0829 2922N 08040W 01522 5004 307 038 158 158 038 01552 0000000000

[Thunder44]

Vortex has 55kt FL winds max in the SW Quad. That 44kts at the surface.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Also 25 nmi wide eye forming.