TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

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Pebbles
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#361 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:01 am

Ok maybe I got too much grit in my eyes.. but it's 5AM eastern right? my clock isn't wrong is it :P I'm use to getting something outta NHC by now and i'm too tired to be patient LOL

P.S> oh oh well weather channel has it.. saying winds increased to 50MPH
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#362 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:49 am

Ernesto never had it. Too distorted in structure to pull around again and separate from the front. 2006 is poor for storm formation.
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#363 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 4:55 am

The inner core seems to be getting better organized this morning. Pressure down to 998mb more is consistent with a 60mph TS. I think it has time to become a Cat 1 hurricane before landfall this evening.
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#364 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:04 am

Looks like a more eastward jog too. What do y'all think of a more northerly landfall tonight?
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#365 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:05 am

the more east the better shot at a hurricane....
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#366 Postby RevDodd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:09 am

East means more time to drink in that nice warm water. If his track slides from the Holy City to MB, that's another 3 hours for the eye over water. Heck, it could happen. Let's see how Ernesto has responded to a few more hours of no land and warm water....
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#367 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:12 am

i think winds will get up to 65mph or 70mph at the most... it doesnt look tht great right now...
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#368 Postby GaryOBX » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:12 am

The GFDL has been nudging east with every run. The 0z model run puts landfall between Cape Fear and Cape Lookout early Friday morning as a strengthening 989mb storm.
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#369 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:14 am

the gfdl is going a little crazy
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#370 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:38 am

Latest recon 997mb and good banding features.
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#371 Postby GTStorm » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:38 am

rnbaida wrote:the gfdl is going a little crazy


The GFDL is picking up on the Savannah Forcefield. Kind of like the one the folks in Tampa were talking about earlier.

It is raining here, though.
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#372 Postby Pebbles » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:39 am

I dunno. I think the Gfdl may be onto something here. Radar presentation has really improved since Mr. E (as I like to call our little TS here) has come off shore. And he seems to be dropping his pressure about 1mb per hour. He's now at 997mb. Not bad little comeback he's trying to make. If he continues on the current trend I don't think 989 would be totally out of the question.

Edit: oh and recon just reported solid 5 minutes of 55-57knot flight level winds. yes I'd say he's putting up quite the fight
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#373 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:44 am

Nightfall Landfall! Looking more and more like a Cat 1 storm. Expect the big media wake up at 11AM for all in the Cape Fear area.
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#374 Postby UpTheCreek » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:52 am

Yeah, looks like Cape Fear will take a good brunt of it to me. Knock it down for those of us to your north, would ya! 8-)
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#375 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:53 am

where did you see the 55-57 knot report and what is the conversion to surface again? Sorry, only half awake lol.
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#376 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:54 am

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 9&start=40

.8
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#377 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:57 am

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

Is Ernesto wrapping convection around the center?
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#378 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 5:59 am

seahawkjd wrote:where did you see the 55-57 knot report and what is the conversion to surface again? Sorry, only half awake lol.


80% reduction would be about 46kts at the surface. Look at the recon thread.
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#379 Postby Lowpressure » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:00 am

997mb-57kts at flt level. Pressure probably around 995.
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#380 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:00 am

definetely an eye wall feature forming around the center now. Does it look like its moving more NNE now?
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