TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[Stormtrack03]

hopefully it wont strengthen much more before it makes landfall around my coast in less than 12 hrs

[gurutc]

Over 100 miles inland here and the rain bands are kicking here.

- gurutc

[Three Blind Mice]

Forward motion appears to be increasing.....NNE

[Pebbles]

oh 996mb pressure reading.. my my! Ok Mr. E... you've made your point.. you can stop now *winks*

Edit: That 989mb really starting to look possible now. Anyone think they might put the hurricane watches back up? More likely if they did they would be warnings now that i think about it.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

If they are using .9 that's 55mph.

[Stormtrack03]

oh 996mb pressure reading.. my my! Ok Mr. E... you've made your point.. you can stop now *winks*

Edit: That 989mb really starting to look possible now. Anyone think they might put the hurricane watches back up? More likely if they did they would be warnings now that i think about it.

I believe that it could happen unfortunately.

[cinlfla]

Wow ernesto is getting his act together this morning, good luck to the folks in the Caolinas. Hopefully he's not going to be to bad, I don't think theres enough time for him to strengthen to a major storm but then again you don't need a major storm to have damage.

[Bane]

he definitely loooks more impressive on radar this morning.

[storms in NC]

Just heared he is come ing in Cape Fear River at a cat 1 on TV12 news here. a fran payh is what he said. and he was starting to wrap aroundon the eastside.
More later when I wake up

[Stormavoider]

The first visibles are coming in.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=30&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=4&palette=ir.pal

[HURAKAN]

HURRICANE WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

[Bane]

they may be needed soon

[seahawkjd]

Ok, I think my head just exploded. I turned it on CNN for a sec and the meteorologist there gave a very clear, concise explanation of the recon planes findings, knots to mph, and what that meant at the surface. What is the world coming to? lol.

[MBismyPlayground]

Just heared he is come ing in Cape Fear River at a cat 1 on TV12 news here. a fran payh is what he said. and he was starting to wrap aroundon the eastside.
More later when I wake up

Just curious where you are hearing this?? I have listened to both local and TWC and neither have said this so far.

[seahawkjd]

From where he is I believe thats WCTI, the local ABC affiliate in Eastern NC, home of good ol Skip Waters.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Might be a good idea on HC watches. The pressure dropping and baroclinic interaction could well put near HC force winds up.

I can tell you that this storm is evidence that a lot of people ( other than this board) focus on what it DID rather than on what it could DO.

[storms in NC]

From where he is I believe thats WCTI, the local ABC affiliate in Eastern NC, home of good ol Skip Waters.

That is who it was. Thank you

[Thunder44]

They are flying at 850mb so the normal reduction would be .8

61kts converts to about 56mph at the surface.

8am advisory just out says 55mph winds. They don't use 55mph full advisories, so it maybe 60mph on 11am advisory.

[UpTheCreek]

Skip is da man! I'm trying to figure out what the wind directions will be for the sounds from this, especially Pamlico.

[MBismyPlayground]

From where he is I believe thats WCTI, the local ABC affiliate in Eastern NC, home of good ol Skip Waters.

That is who it was. Thank you

All I can say is I hope they are right and that TWC is wrong!! I definitly prefer the other side of this storm. They are here in the city saying it is going to hit here and I don't want any part of it. Maybe the NHC will move the forecast up some from me.