TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

[rnbaida]

ships has a 85mph hurricane....

[UpTheCreek]

Don't worry about your daughter, carve......Lejeune is where you want to be in the Jacksonville area, she's very safe.

[bjackrian]

Wouldn't 3.5 translate to 65 mph?

Per the link above, 3.5 = 55 kts = 63 mph (approximately, of course).

Ah slightly different question.

[UpTheCreek]

Wouldn't 3.5 translate to 65 mph?

63mph, here's the chart provided earlier in this thread:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

[SCMedic]

Latest loop shows a Nward movement once again.

I see NNE here, no change in direction that I can see?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... raprod=n0z

there is some serious skewing on that map. Look at other radar loops, and you'll see a N direction..

[tallywx]

that 85 mph SHIPS reading occurs in 36 hours, after the hurricane has already made landfall. Looks like extrapolating out the SHIPS trend to the point of landfall yields about 65 knots exactly. Hurricane warnings need to go up.

[UpTheCreek]

Thanks Medic, I'll look at some others.

[UpTheCreek]

Sure is raining steady hard here in New Bern.....

[tallywx]

Latest loop shows a Nward movement once again.

I see NNE here, no change in direction that I can see?

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... raprod=n0z

there is some serious skewing on that map. Look at other radar loops, and you'll see a N direction..

On the jacksonville fl base reflectively, I see a motion towards Myrtle Beach. On that composite wunderground, I see it directly towards Cape Fear. Splitting hairs, I guess.

[SCMedic]

Thanks Medic, I'll look at some others.

No prob. I looked at that one earlier, and it almost points to a due NE movement, which knew by my local radar loop, wasn't accurate...

[mtm4319]

55 mph on the advisory? That's a bit unorthodox... I guess they can only do that on the intermediate advisories.

[SCMedic]

I would expect, that at 11am, we'll see 60-70mph...

I'm thinking they may need to throw hurricane warnings up by noon.

[wxman57]

Look for 60 mph on the next advisory. The way the CDO is developing, I think there's a 60-80% shot that Ernesto will reach hurricane strength at landfall. Pressure may drop to 985mb or so. This will produce a 3-4 ft storm surge on the Carolina coast east of the center.

[storms in NC]

The radar you give you a faults heading. There is a reason behind it a promet can tell you if they are on here. The best to go by is satellite

[SCMedic]

Look for 60 mph on the next advisory. The way the CDO is developing, I think there's a 60-80% shot that Ernesto will reach hurricane strength at landfall. Pressure may drop to 985mb or so. This will produce a 3-4 ft storm surge on the Carolina coast east of the center.

There sure is a lot of crow around here lately...


PS... There's a very small chance, very very small, that WXMAN57 is WAAAAAAAAAAAY more accurate than me.

[krisj]

How far will the winds go out from the center. They guy on channel 4, I think, said that this will just be a rain event for us. Justin somebody, I think.

[Cuber]

I'm still surprised how much convection there is in the SW quadrant of this storm.... and how little there is in the NE quad. During it's run over Florida the west coast got alot more of this storm than the east coast. The stunning blow-up of convection as it came along side Lake O was a fun thing to watch. Hang on to your Carolina hats folks .... "there's a stom coming alright .... and it's coming after you people"

[tgenius]

Well Looks like Ernie decided that he wanted to hit the carolinas and not FL as a stronger storm... how thoughtful.

[rnbaida]

all the models have the system at 60mph...so look for 60 at 11am.... I think 70mph by 5pm....

[Josephine96]

60 mph @ 11.. maybe 65 @ 2 and then 70-75 @ 5,, Could be an interesting day..