TS Ernesto Satellite,Analysis and Models Thread #9

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Derek Ortt

#481 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:23 am

it should still hit land as the models turn it to the NNW in about 24 hours
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seahawkjd
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#482 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:23 am

Would like to think that it would skip us, but that high is still sitting out there so i guess there's only so far east it can go at the moment.
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cpdaman
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#483 Postby cpdaman » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:24 am

just looked at this storm this morning and wow.

offshore canaveral bouy still reporting sustained winds over 30 mph gusting to 40 mph

only question is track certainty if this pushes more northeast could it graze carolina's and go up the coast surprising millions.

very interesting day setting up
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#484 Postby seahawkjd » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:24 am

Derek, since you seem active on this thread right now. What is your thinking now about where it will eventually make landfall?
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Regit
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#485 Postby Regit » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:25 am

Derek Ortt wrote:it should still hit land as the models turn it to the NNW in about 24 hours



Well if it keeps going NE till then, it seems that it could go around NC and slide farther up the coast.

Not likely. I would still expect Horry or Brunswick Counties. It could always jog back west.
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carve
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#486 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:25 am

What would turn it nnw..?just curious
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nequad
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#487 Postby nequad » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:25 am

Also looks like the center is tightening on latest radar. Could be the convection wrapping around the south and east will nudge Ernie a little to the east temporarily?
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#488 Postby Thunder44 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:26 am

carve wrote:What would turn it nnw..?just curious


It's gets captured by the ULL over the Mid-West
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#489 Postby storms in NC » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:26 am

It is going NNE as of right now. the front is what is going to turn it NNW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
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