Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
mtm4319
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1537
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2004 2:47 am
Location: Mobile, AL

#361 Postby mtm4319 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:12 am

http://starbulletin.com/2006/08/31/news/story11.html

Wake Isle in storm's cross hairs
Super Typhoon Ioke will likely hit today with 190-mph gusts
Star-Bulletin staff
citydesk@starbulletin.com

The Air Force is waiting for Super Typhoon Ioke to clear out of the way before it files back to survey Wake Island.

A Hickam Air Force Base spokesman said he does not expect that to occur until Sunday at the earliest. Once the 10,000-foot runway is deemed safe to use, an assessment team will be dispatched.

The super typhoon was expected to head straight for the three-island atoll. Last night, its eye was about 60 miles east of Wake, with the storm traveling west at about 10 mph.

"That's a bull's-eye, as far as I'm concerned," said Tim Craig, lead forecaster of the National Weather Service.

Image

Forecasters said Ioke was likely to hit the atoll well before its predicted time of arrival, which was between midnight and 1 a.m. today.

That is because hurricane-force winds of 155 mph span 150 miles in diameter, with gusts of 190 mph, Craig explained.

"This is bad -- I can't put it any other way," Craig said. "Between the winds and the storm surge, I wouldn't be surprised if the whole island goes underwater."

The U.S. Navy's Joint Hurricane Typhoon Warning Center has been able to track Ioke accurately since it was 500 miles from Wake, Craig said.

Ray Tanabe, Weather Service lead forecaster, said 155-mph winds can do a lot of damage, especially to buildings that are not concrete. Most of the structures on Wake were "built during the war, are fairly fortified and should fare OK," he said. "However, some of the smaller structures may not survive as well."

Ioke will pass into no man's land once it passes Wake Island, Tanabe said. Next on its path is an uninhabited Japanese island, Minami Torishima. Ioke is expected to get there by Saturday afternoon.

Ioke is the first Category 5 hurricane to develop in the central Pacific since record keeping began in the early 1960s, according to the National Weather Service. Once it crossed the International Dateline, its name was changed to Super Typhoon Ioke.
0 likes   

Jim Cantore

#362 Postby Jim Cantore » Thu Aug 31, 2006 8:34 am

I can only imagine what it is like in Wake Island now, Winds 125-135mph I'm guessing.

Image
0 likes   

HenkL
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2401
Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:33 pm
Location: Groningen, The Netherlands
Contact:

#363 Postby HenkL » Thu Aug 31, 2006 9:34 am

Station on Wake island is alive:

1890000 20060831 14:06 9.33 182.00 35.77 78.98 81.68 979.70
0 likes   

User avatar
P.K.
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 5149
Joined: Thu Sep 23, 2004 5:57 pm
Location: Watford, England
Contact:

#364 Postby P.K. » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:19 pm

As of the last advisory Wake Island is still within the area of 50kt winds.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 311800UTC 20.2N 165.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 011800UTC 21.7N 160.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
48HF 021800UTC 23.5N 155.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
72HF 031800UTC 25.8N 150.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
0 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#365 Postby WmE » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:20 pm

HenkL wrote:Station on Wake island is alive:

1890000 20060831 14:06 9.33 182.00 35.77 78.98 81.68 979.70


This french guy rulez!! :lol:
0 likes   

Brandon007
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 84
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:34 pm
Location: Meridian, MS

#366 Postby Brandon007 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:21 pm

so do we know anything offical on the max winds or pressure? also any word on that french guy, is he still alive?
0 likes   

tgenius
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1160
Joined: Mon May 15, 2006 5:31 pm
Location: Miami, FL

#367 Postby tgenius » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:23 pm

Um.. not trying to be silly, butr that was 2:06 their time in the Afternoon, if you notice,there's no other readings (Be it loss of power, broken instruments, or god forbid death)
0 likes   

User avatar
WmE
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 696
Age: 36
Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 11:23 am
Location: Vienna, Austria

#368 Postby WmE » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:27 pm

Ohh well, I hope he's alive. :(
0 likes   

Brandon007
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 84
Joined: Sat Mar 04, 2006 2:34 pm
Location: Meridian, MS

#369 Postby Brandon007 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:30 pm

its amazing how that pathetic TS Ernesto gets all the attention when we have this huge monster out there that has been a cat 4/5 for days now, go figure
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#370 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:31 pm

Brandon007 wrote:its amazing how that pathetic TS Ernesto gets all the attention when we have this huge monster out there that has been a cat 4/5 for days now, go figure


How many people is Ioke affecting and how close it's to the US mainland?

That's why Ernesto gets the attention.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tstormwatcher
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3086
Joined: Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:31 pm
Location: New Bern, NC

#371 Postby Tstormwatcher » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:36 pm

That is correct, Ioke is only affecting 200 military and civilian contractors some 5000 miles away from the mainland. Why should it get any attention?
0 likes   

User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#372 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:51 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 AUG 2006 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 20:37:57 N Lon : 164:28:23 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 928.1mb/115.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.1mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 32 km

Center Temp : +1.9C Cloud Region Temp : -67.9C
0 likes   

User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#373 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:55 pm

31/2033 UTC 20.3N 164.7E T6.0/6.5 IOKE -- West Pacific Ocean
0 likes   

User avatar
WindRunner
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5806
Age: 34
Joined: Fri Jul 29, 2005 8:07 pm
Location: Warrenton, VA, but Albany, NY for school
Contact:

#374 Postby WindRunner » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:56 pm

Interesting ADT estimates, the eye has cooled significantly from the at least +13C it was at one point, if not +17C, but I can't quite remember. JMA track is almost pointing at a track somewhat towards the southern end of Japan, if not completely south if you consider the recent forecast track trends. If this were to stay to the south, it could hit the hot waters of the main "explosion" areas of the WPAC and who knows what Asia will get if that happens.

Old advisory, the 00Z advisory should become available within an hour or so.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 312100UTC 20.5N 164.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 012100UTC 21.9N 160.3E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
45HF 021800UTC 23.5N 155.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 920HPA
MXWD 105KT
69HF 031800UTC 25.8N 150.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 100KT
0 likes   

User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#375 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:56 pm

The GFS still has mid Japan on its direct path, now the JTWC is mentioning a possible hit.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _162.shtml
0 likes   

User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#376 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:59 pm

KMA models has shifted south also..except for one that turns it due northImage[list=][/list]
0 likes   

User avatar
jimvb
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:03 am
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Contact:

Ioke may affect a lot more people

#377 Postby jimvb » Thu Aug 31, 2006 6:59 pm

Brandon007 does have a point. The mediots on CNN and the news programs on TV all hype on Ernesto and now John. They completely ignore Ioke. It's not just Wake Island, either, although the complete submerging of an island is something that is at least somewhat newsworthy. Ioke is headed towards Japan. Every GFS run for the past few days call for a hit on Japan, and more than half smash right smack into Tokyo. How many people does Tokyo have? Is it the biggest city in the world? 25,000,000 people? Ioke may very well affect more people than Ernesto, John, Katrina, Rita, Isabel, Wilma, and Juan put together (unless you count the effect on gasoline prices). So I think the media should at least mention Ioke.

But right now the immediate threats are Ernesto and John, and I would certainly like to find out what is going to happen right near my home and at the place where I went to see a total eclipse of the Sun on 1991 July 11. I am more interested in Ernesto than anything else right now, but I still want to know about Ioke.
0 likes   

User avatar
jimvb
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 397
Joined: Wed Sep 15, 2004 8:03 am
Location: Richmond, Virginia
Contact:

#378 Postby jimvb » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:01 pm

Interesting that as I post that Ioke could affect so many people, a model goes and turns it thataway and makes of it an interesting but somewhat irrelevant typhicane It still bears watching.
0 likes   

oceancounty
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 33
Joined: Mon Sep 19, 2005 1:46 pm
Location: Ocean County, New Jersey

#379 Postby oceancounty » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:02 pm

And this is just another reason why I do not watch CNN!!!! :roll:
0 likes   

User avatar
bostonseminole
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 209
Joined: Sun Sep 11, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Tokyo, Japan

#380 Postby bostonseminole » Thu Aug 31, 2006 7:15 pm

I am not sure what kinda of damage Tokyo would have, it is protected by another piece of land, so it is not on the Pacific side but on the bay. Of course a storm surge can still occur on the bay etc, but I heard once from a MET that a hurricane has to come from a very specific angle to cause serious problems to Tokyo. I would think this would be that angle since it is not coming from the south, when they do they usually are moving quickly sort of like you see in the NE. When they come from the West they have to get past the Mt's, which tear any system apart. This one is coming directly from the east, which is rare I believe, I hope a Pro Met can comment.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], lolitx, Sunnydays and 65 guests