Cape Verde Development Soon?

[ronjon]

Some rather strong global model support for a Cape Verde storm to develop in the next 48-72 hrs and move west into the central Atlantic. The GFS, CMC, Euro, & NOGAPs all develop a system off west Africa and intensify it -moving it to about 40-50W in 6 days.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 6083100!!/

[Meso]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... f527245ffa

[Frank P]

yeah, well if any of these come to fruition they look to be some long trackers and perhaps will give all the hurricane tracking junkies on board a good fix ....

[Windtalker1]

and every model shows the high building back to the west...if something does develope it will not be a FISH!

[jusforsean]

Is this the same system that the model showed coming into fl from the east while ernesto was going on? Why does it only show it to a certian point now and I saw a link on here somewhere (I have to look for it) That showed it coming all the way in?

[SouthFloridawx]

Yeah Meso was on this yesterday I believe and he posted a new thread concerning what your talking about.

[HenkL]

From the forecaster at the NAMMA project (investigating easterly waves and Sahara air):

Forecast Summary for 8/31/06
August 31st, 2006

A small-amplitude AEW has exited just off the West African coast and while there is some convection with the wave, very little wave structure is seen in the low-level fields. The most prevalent feature is the large dust outbreak which has now put dust from the coast all the way to 40W. A distinct dust boundary is seen in visible imagery, between the islands and the ITCZ. The wave currently to the east of the Cape Verdes will move south with continued very little amplitude, acccording to the 0-48 hour GFS forecast. Past 48 hours, the GFS forecast indicates that a higher amplitude wave will enter western Africa - it is seen in central Africa in this mornings infrared imagery, although the wave is not very well developed. This wave is expected to be near the coast in the 60 hour forecast, valid 12Z on Saturday. By 72 hours, valid 00Z Sunday the wave is a large amplitude with a closed circulation to the east of the Cape Verdes, moving northwest. Wave tracks as far north as the forecast for this wave is typically do not develop - the GFS is forecasting intensification so the track of this wave should be monitored. Precipitable water forecasts indicate strong monsoonal flow into the wave as it departs the coast, while dry, dusty air will be entrained into the northern part of the system. A strong 700hPa jet associated with the wave continues to show a favorable strength and position for a dust outbreak in the Eastern Atlantic, prior to the system exiting the coast. By Monday, the wave is expected to be over the Cape Verdes. The wave translation speed has slowed as compared to previous GFS runs. Other models such as the ECMWF, UKMet, and the French Arpege show similar wave positions, althought the UKMet shows a stronger amplitude on the coast, while the ECMWF compares well with the GFS. Today will be a no-fly, however there is still an alert on the possibility of flying tomorrow depending on the wave situation.

[x-y-no]

Both the 0z and 6z runs of the GFS are still developing two systems in the 4 to 5 day range:



They're then both caught by the weakness in the mid level which is progged to be just ahead of them:



at that time and recurved out to sea.


The timing is tricky, IMHO. I think it's clear the trailing system will recurve at sea, but the lead system could scoot by the weakness and be a long runner to the islands.