cycloneye wrote:The center is poorly defined but convection is strong to the SW.
Actually, it's only the eyewall that's poorly defined. The center is very well defined, with a strong wind shift.
Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
Moderator: S2k Moderators
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
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StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
URNT40 KWBC 311440
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
143100 3237 07929 7034 +0203 108019 +150 +117 104019 030 005
143200 3238 07932 7033 +0207 101020 +153 +118 094022 030 006
143300 3236 07936 7083 +0205 084021 +151 +123 081022 030 005
143400 3233 07940 7038 +0190 090023 +149 +120 087024 033 005
143500 3230 07943 7051 +0182 082020 +147 +134 077022 040 019
143600 3227 07947 7041 +0178 088017 +146 +133 091020 045 018
143700 3224 07951 7052 +0185 079017 +148 +132 084020 038 011
143800 3221 07954 7054 +0185 069017 +146 +128 072018 035 006
143900 3218 07958 7023 +0178 059020 +146 +129 063023 037 007
144000 3215 08002 7037 +0171 054022 +149 +126 054024 039 010
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
143100 3237 07929 7034 +0203 108019 +150 +117 104019 030 005
143200 3238 07932 7033 +0207 101020 +153 +118 094022 030 006
143300 3236 07936 7083 +0205 084021 +151 +123 081022 030 005
143400 3233 07940 7038 +0190 090023 +149 +120 087024 033 005
143500 3230 07943 7051 +0182 082020 +147 +134 077022 040 019
143600 3227 07947 7041 +0178 088017 +146 +133 091020 045 018
143700 3224 07951 7052 +0185 079017 +148 +132 084020 038 011
143800 3221 07954 7054 +0185 069017 +146 +128 072018 035 006
143900 3218 07958 7023 +0178 059020 +146 +129 063023 037 007
144000 3215 08002 7037 +0171 054022 +149 +126 054024 039 010
0 likes
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
UZNT13 KWBC 311437
XXAA 81148 99303 70793 11609 99002 26207 23040 00021 26007 23039
92706 22200 24546 85439 17601 26049 88999 77999
31313 09608 81356
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 SPL 3028N07926W 1359 WL150 23542 085 DLM WND 25046 002782 M
BL WND 24047 EYEWALL 180=
XXBB 81148 99303 70793 11609 00002 26207 11986 24800 22894 20400
33782 15020
21212 00002 23040 11995 23540 22978 24052 33967 24049 44905 24550
55888 26044 66782 25040
31313 09608 81356
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 SPL 3028N07926W 1359 WL150 23542 085 DLM WND 25046 002782 M
BL WND 24047 EYEWALL 180=
Eyewall:
Surface (1002mb): 40 knots
1000mb: 39 knots
995mb: 40 knots
978mb: 52 knots
967mb: 49 knots
925mb: 46 knots
905mb: 50 knots
888mb: 44 knots
850mb: 49 knots
782mb: 40 knots
XXAA 81148 99303 70793 11609 99002 26207 23040 00021 26007 23039
92706 22200 24546 85439 17601 26049 88999 77999
31313 09608 81356
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 SPL 3028N07926W 1359 WL150 23542 085 DLM WND 25046 002782 M
BL WND 24047 EYEWALL 180=
XXBB 81148 99303 70793 11609 00002 26207 11986 24800 22894 20400
33782 15020
21212 00002 23040 11995 23540 22978 24052 33967 24049 44905 24550
55888 26044 66782 25040
31313 09608 81356
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 07
62626 SPL 3028N07926W 1359 WL150 23542 085 DLM WND 25046 002782 M
BL WND 24047 EYEWALL 180=
Eyewall:
Surface (1002mb): 40 knots
1000mb: 39 knots
995mb: 40 knots
978mb: 52 knots
967mb: 49 knots
925mb: 46 knots
905mb: 50 knots
888mb: 44 knots
850mb: 49 knots
782mb: 40 knots
0 likes
-
Stormtrack03
- Category 1
- Posts: 377
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:06 pm
- Location: Downingtown, PA
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38088
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...A LITTLE STRONGER...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
...ERNESTO HEADING TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...A LITTLE STRONGER...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 225
MILES...360 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 105 MILES...170 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH
CAROLINA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEARING THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.3 N...79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38088
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT
LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN
THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE
FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT
10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64
KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE
INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA
P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT.
ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 31.3N 79.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC THU AUG 31 2006
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT NORTH CAROLINA
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 0NE 75SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.6W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 79.9W
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 75NE 100SE 40SW 20NW.
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT THU AUG 31 2006
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME A LITTLE
ORGANIZED WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN BANDS AND NEAR THE CENTER BUT
LIMITED OUTFLOW. THE MOST RECENT AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IN
THE AREA REPORTED THAT THE PRESSURE WAS GRADUALLY FALLING AND THE
FLIGHT LEVEL PEAK WINDS INCREASED TO 61 KNOTS. THEREFORE... THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 50 KNOTS. ERNESTO HAS ABOUT
10 ADDITIONAL HOURS OVER WARM WATERS BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
COAST AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR IN THAT PERIOD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS ERNESTO TO 60 KNOTS AT LANDFALL IN
AGREEMENT WITH GUIDANCE. SINCE NEITHER I NOR THE MODELS ARE GOOD
ENOUGH TO PRECISELY KNOW IF ERNESTO WILL HAVE AN INTENSITY OF 64
KNOTS AT LANDFALL...WHICH IS THE BORDER BETWEEN HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY AND 4 KNOTS ABOVE THE FORECAST...A
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE
INTENSITY OF ERNESTO IS BEING VERY CLOSELY MONITORED WITH A NOAA
P-3 AIRCRAFT WHICH IS MEASURING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE SFMR
INSTRUMENT.
ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THIS REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 020 DEGREES AT 15
KNOTS AND IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL UNITED
STATES. THE STEERING PATTERN IS NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...SO THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL
LANDFALL WITHIN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/1500Z 31.3N 79.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 01/0000Z 33.4N 78.8W 60 KT
24HR VT 01/1200Z 36.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0000Z 38.0N 78.0W 25 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1200Z 40.1N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1200Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
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#neversummer
-
SouthFloridawx
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8346
- Age: 46
- Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
- Location: Sarasota, FL
- Contact:
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
URNT40 KWBC 311450
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
144100 3212 08005 7053 +0170 061026 +147 +131 061030 039 009
144200 3209 08009 7021 +0161 044032 +144 +131 042034 043 013
144300 3206 08013 7002 +0159 034032 +149 +125 037034 044 019
144400 3202 08017 7059 +0164 030026 +144 +131 028029 039 010
144500 3159 08021 7050 +0169 038020 +146 +133 032025 037 009
144600 3156 08024 7062 +0169 041015 +148 +134 043018 043 012
144700 3153 08028 7025 +0172 012023 +156 +133 007025 043 008
144800 3150 08032 7058 +0176 013023 +155 +129 013024 039 007
144900 3147 08035 7050 +0179 000023 +157 +125 356025 040 010
145000 3144 08039 7040 +0181 002026 +162 +110 005027 039 008
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
144100 3212 08005 7053 +0170 061026 +147 +131 061030 039 009
144200 3209 08009 7021 +0161 044032 +144 +131 042034 043 013
144300 3206 08013 7002 +0159 034032 +149 +125 037034 044 019
144400 3202 08017 7059 +0164 030026 +144 +131 028029 039 010
144500 3159 08021 7050 +0169 038020 +146 +133 032025 037 009
144600 3156 08024 7062 +0169 041015 +148 +134 043018 043 012
144700 3153 08028 7025 +0172 012023 +156 +133 007025 043 008
144800 3150 08032 7058 +0176 013023 +155 +129 013024 039 007
144900 3147 08035 7050 +0179 000023 +157 +125 356025 040 010
145000 3144 08039 7040 +0181 002026 +162 +110 005027 039 008
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-
Josephine96
-
superfly
-
StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
URNT40 KWBC 311500
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
145100 3141 08042 7037 +0183 358028 +159 +109 359028 037 004
145200 3138 08045 7040 +0190 353028 +159 +114 354030 034 001
145300 3135 08049 7042 +0196 352029 +154 +116 350030 029 001
145400 3132 08052 7045 +0204 353027 +154 +106 351029 031 002
145500 3129 08056 7041 +0211 358026 +161 +085 359026 030 001
145600 3125 08100 7043 +0218 353025 +159 +086 351025 028 000
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NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
145100 3141 08042 7037 +0183 358028 +159 +109 359028 037 004
145200 3138 08045 7040 +0190 353028 +159 +114 354030 034 001
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150000 3113 08113 7036 +0241 337021 +155 +094 333023 023 000
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StormsAhead
- Category 5
- Posts: 1447
- Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2005 6:38 pm
- Location: Cape Cod, Massachusetts
URNT40 KWBC 311510
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
150100 3110 08114 7033 +0251 332024 +155 +087 329025 999 999
150200 3109 08110 7046 +0242 332023 +154 +093 330024 025 000
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151000 3110 08031 7036 +0180 331031 +159 +089 330033 029 001
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
150100 3110 08114 7033 +0251 332024 +155 +087 329025 999 999
150200 3109 08110 7046 +0242 332023 +154 +093 330024 025 000
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150900 3110 08036 7032 +0191 334029 +159 +078 334030 029 000
151000 3110 08031 7036 +0180 331031 +159 +089 330033 029 001
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