TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[fci]

There is a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning. In my opinion that really should be adequate for people right now. It tells them to expect, by and large, tropical storm force conditions with the potential for it to be a bit stronger than that, and covers the bases of what realistically to expect with this storm. If the storm does continue to intensify, I imagine they will upgrade to a hurricane warning, however.

With all due respect; what does upgrading a watch to a warning provide when it is within "hours" of landfall?
All it does is look good on a piece of paper.

IMO, a Hurricane Warning is a beacon to take action in advance of a landfalling hurricane and a Hurricane Watch tells you to prepare to take precautions.

That's why a Hurricane Watch should have been up yesterday and a Hurricane Warning hoisted at 11 last night or 5 this morning. Then schools could have been out, work could have been cancelled and people could have been taking precautions this morning in advance of a potentially landfalling hurricane.

Now, is too late; hard enough for the residents to get out of work and pick up kids let alone put up shutters, bring in lawn furniture etc....

[UpTheCreek]

Is skeetobite weather gone ? I wanted a map of Ernie's path imposed on a map of NC to see what towns etc it is going over.

Came up for me:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

[bjackrian]

Is skeetobite weather gone ? I wanted a map of Ernie's path imposed on a map of NC to see what towns etc it is going over.

Umm...it seems to work for me: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/

Heh...beaten to it.

[westmoon]

skeetobiteweather is still live

[casademadre]

Hi dg.

It's working for me.

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com

[fci]

Oh by the way, I believe your overreacting, I know a few folks from the NHC and have personally talked to them. I know how hard it is to forecast storms such as these, but I just dont get why there arent warnings out?

I agree they should have put a hurricane watch up at 5am this morning and it should have been changed to a warning at the 11am. Bottom line is that hurricane conditions seem very likely at this time. Also another thing that kills me is when this thing was a little ole TD coming off Cuba they issued a hurricane watch for florida and it took them until a borderline hurricane is 10-12 hours out to issue a WATCH for NC. For those saying do not come down on the NHC all I can say is they did not forecast it right I understand it is a difficult thing to do but you cant tell me that at 5am when this thing had already reached the strength they had forecast at landfall (18 hrs out ) that they did not see the possibilty of a hurricane at landfall and if they are going to issue a watch for south florida with a weak TD/TS coming off of cuba then why not do the same for NC?????

If they do not put a warning out soon then they will have to issue a warning within 12 HRS of landfall that is a huge miss in my book by the NHC.

YOU ARE EXACTLY 100% CORRECT!!!

[dgparent]

thx had the wrong addy

[southerngale]

For those of you bashing the NHC, take it off this board!

Also, this is the satellite, analysis, and models thread. Could we keep the discussions to that? If you have something else to bring up, start another thread and keep this one on topic. Thanks!

[Epsilon_Fan]

Ernie has strengthened fairly rapidly since leaving the Florida coast. Now the convection is blowing up on the east and southeast side and wrapping around. This could very well become a hurricane if it isn't one already!

[storms in NC]

i am still waiting for an update from my local NWS office to see what kind of winds i can expect but right now they are not saying much which is surprising seeing the track has it about 30 miles to my west still as a TS tomorrow morning.If it gets any stronger then i would suspect that my area may also see a increase in potential winds.

Did you see what TV9 had to say. You will be undre alot of rain and some wind too.
I here will be in the hurricane on the eastside if not the eye.

[milfordmawx]

Here's the latest GRLevel3 from KCLX http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/br2.htm click for the loop.

[NFLDART]

Looks Like Top Sail Beach, Cure Beach, may be in for another rough ride. Convection seems to be firing nicely now. This is probably the healthiest I have ever seen this system look.

[cjrciadt]

From GRlevel 3

[shaggy]

i am still waiting for an update from my local NWS office to see what kind of winds i can expect but right now they are not saying much which is surprising seeing the track has it about 30 miles to my west still as a TS tomorrow morning.If it gets any stronger then i would suspect that my area may also see a increase in potential winds.

Did you see what TV9 had to say. You will be undre alot of rain and some wind too.
I here will be in the hurricane on the eastside if not the eye.

yeah that puts me in the tornado threat more than i would like to be and i am not liking that but cant change it.If it develops further than forecast then maybe here in greenville winds gusting to 50 might be possible but with his fast forward speed he could be a gusty storm anyways.

[westmoon]

What is the tide going to be tonight as this makes landfall?

[AJC3]

Advisory center fixes since Ernie left FL.



Note that soon the center will be leaving the gulf stream and moving over slightly cooler shelf waters. May slow the current strenghtening trend some.

[windnrain]

From that map, the coldest it looks like it will be going over is 29.3... which is still, what, 84 degrees F? Isn't that still enough for decent strengthening to occur? I mean, the whole "Blue" color for 84-85 degrees is somewhat distracting, heh.

[CronkPSU]

heck it did nothing over the super warm waters near florida...who knows if it will weaken or strengthen at this point

[NFLDART]

Ernesto seems to be carrying alot more moisture with him now than he did over FL. The biggest problem IMO is going to be with inland flooding.

[windnrain]

I also did some conversions, and the difference between 30.3 and 29.3 is only 2 degrees Fahrenheit (apparently, 29.3 is closer to 85 degrees F)... I really don't see how that will slow weaking all that much.