Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[artist]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 301530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 30 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUG TO 01/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1500Z A. 31/1800,2100,01/0000Z
B. NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 2305A ERNESTO
C. 31/1300Z C. 31/1515Z
D. 31.5N 80.02W D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/1800Z E. 31/1700 TO 01/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 01/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 2405A ERNESTO
C. 31/2345Z
D. 34.5N 77.5WW
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS FROM 30/0900Z TO 31/0600Z
CANCELED BECAUSE SYSTEM OVERLAND.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?

[drezee]

NOAA SFMR has 58 kt surface winds.

850MB heights down 14M in 1 hour. With only a 1 MB pressure fall. That means the pressure is about to DROP fast! Like 2 MB per hour for at elast a short period of time.

There is sometimes a delayed reaction at the surface with steep height falls...let's test the theory

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311650
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
164100 3119 07934 7095 -0010 294033 +153 +142 283058 057 020
164200 3117 07936 6944 -0014 284056 +160 +116 277060 058 044
164300 3114 07939 6789 +0025 294046 +162 +127 297052 047 009
164400 3112 07942 7033 +0062 300039 +153 +135 297042 043 008
164500 3109 07945 7017 +0081 298043 +157 +126 298043 044 005
164700 3103 07951 7022 +0122 299042 +153 +131 298042 044 003
164800 3101 07954 7023 +0131 297041 +152 +131 297043 042 002
164900 3058 07957 7016 +0146 297039 +153 +124 297040 039 001
165000 3055 08000 7020 +0160 300038 +149 +129 300039 042 002

URNT40 KWBC 311700
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
165100 3053 08003 7057 +0170 301036 +147 +138 304038 046 017
165200 3050 08006 7066 +0184 293038 +144 +129 284041 044 013
165300 3047 08010 7026 +0198 294039 +151 +112 293039 039 001
165400 3045 08013 7009 +0206 291039 +150 +110 290040 036 000
165500 3042 08016 7006 +0214 290037 +154 +109 291039 035 000
165600 3040 08019 7005 +0223 287038 +155 +105 288038 032 000
165700 3037 08022 7010 +0234 287037 +156 +091 287038 031 000
165800 3034 08025 7012 +0242 289037 +155 +092 289038 031 000
165900 3032 08028 7014 +0244 291037 +151 +093 291037 029 000
170000 3029 08031 7015 +0249 291036 +149 +094 291036 029 000

[cjrciadt]

993mb pressure with 58kt SMFR winds as the latest

[Wannabewxman79]

NOAA SFMR has 58 kt surface winds

So it has strengthened to around 70 mph then?

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311710
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
170100 3026 08034 7014 +0254 285034 +149 +091 286035 029 000
170200 3023 08036 7010 +0262 286035 +148 +094 286036 999 999
170300 3021 08032 7007 +0259 284037 +150 +095 287038 030 000
170400 3022 08027 7020 +0260 288038 +148 +094 289039 030 000
170500 3022 08021 7016 +0256 287039 +149 +094 286039 030 000
170600 3022 08016 7016 +0255 290040 +150 +092 291041 033 000
170700 3022 08011 7019 +0255 289042 +151 +092 290042 035 000
170800 3022 08006 7013 +0252 287042 +149 +095 288043 036 000
170900 3022 08000 7026 +0249 284044 +149 +093 283045 037 000
171000 3022 07955 7031 +0246 280046 +147 +098 281047 037 000

Heading eastward

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 311712
XXAA 81178 99316 70793 11619 99993 268// 24009 00563 ///// /////
92626 23408 20008 85363 19806 32003 88999 77999
31313 09608 81635
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 SPL 3157N07926W 1638 WL150 23009 085 DLM WND 22504 992781 M
BL WND 22510 EYE=
XXBB 81178 99316 70793 11619 00993 268// 11992 26814 22909 22404
33798 174// 44781 17846
21212 00993 24009 11979 22010 22958 22012 33864 24501 44781 10002
31313 09608 81635
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 21
62626 SPL 3157N07926W 1638 WL150 23009 085 DLM WND 22504 992781 M
BL WND 22510 EYE=

Drop from previous vortex

[craptacular]

Last three VDMs

A. 31/1407Z
B. 31 DEG 1 MIN N
79 DEG 28 MIN W

A. 31/1525Z
B. 31 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 21 MIN W

A. 31/1635Z
B. 31 DEG 33 MIN N
79 DEG 16 MIN W

12.5 mph at 20 degrees (NNE) between last two

15.7 mph at 18 degrees (NNE) between first and last

[artist]

slowing down some then it appears. Wonder if it will last?

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311720
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
171100 3022 07950 7031 +0245 280047 +148 +095 280048 037 000
171200 3022 07944 7030 +0242 279048 +147 +096 279049 037 000
171300 3022 07938 7028 +0239 278049 +149 +097 277050 037 000
171400 3022 07933 7024 +0232 278050 +152 +096 278051 037 000
171500 3022 07927 7020 +0229 277051 +153 +095 276051 038 000
171600 3023 07922 7030 +0231 274051 +154 +093 273051 040 000
171700 3023 07916 7032 +0232 271052 +151 +093 270054 040 000
171800 3023 07911 7031 +0231 270053 +151 +094 270054 040 000
171900 3023 07905 7029 +0230 267054 +148 +103 267056 038 000
172000 3023 07859 7027 +0230 265053 +147 +111 267054 038 000

URNT40 KWBC 311730
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
172100 3024 07854 7029 +0235 262053 +154 +102 263053 037 000
172200 3024 07848 7025 +0237 263053 +155 +103 265054 036 001
172300 3024 07843 7030 +0243 259052 +153 +108 259053 037 000
172400 3028 07841 7030 +0235 255050 +152 +107 256051 035 000
172500 3032 07843 7028 +0223 253053 +150 +103 254054 037 002
172600 3035 07845 7027 +0210 255051 +150 +101 256055 037 004
172700 3039 07846 7024 +0199 251051 +150 +110 249053 040 000
172800 3043 07848 7031 +0186 253055 +150 +113 253056 039 001
172900 3047 07849 7027 +0174 256054 +152 +100 253056 041 000
173000 3050 07850 7026 +0160 257056 +151 +112 255058 044 000

Many reports of 50-60 knots at FL in the SE quad

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER
NORTHWARD TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND
ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.1 WEST OR ABOUT 180
MILES...285 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA AND
ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF ERNESTO WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF
THE CAROLINAS LATER TODAY.

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COASTS OF SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA IN AREAS
OF ONSHORE FLOW WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTH CAROLINA
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...THROUGH
SATURDAY. THESE AMOUNTS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Andrew92]

Wait a second:

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

And at the end:

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.9 N...79.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB.

Correction, anyone?

[cycloneye]

For sure will be corrected in minutes .

[cycloneye]

I can't discount that NHC issues a special advisory to upgrade to hurricane before the 5 PM advisory,depending on what the NOAA plane finds in the comming minites.

[kenl01]

Looks like 60mph sustained winds. According to my NOAA Weather radio......

I'm sticking with that..........

[NCWeatherChic]

It's 70mph..I just checked...geeeshhhhh crazy storm!
Angela

I checked locally and checked NOAA and weatherunderground.com and they say 70mph

[Brent]

Looks like 60mph sustained winds. According to my NOAA Weather radio......

I'm sticking with that..........

No.

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

60 mph is not "near hurricane strength"

This will almost certainly be a hurricane at landfall.

[NCWeatherChic]

...Corrected for repeat section intensity...

...Ernesto nearing hurricane strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect from the Savannah River
northward to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and
Albemarle sounds.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 31.9 north...longitude 79.1 west or about 180
miles...285 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina and
about 90 miles...145 km...southeast of Charleston South Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track the center of Ernesto will be near the coast of
the Carolinas later today.

Data from a NOAA p-3 reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Ernesto could strengthen a little more and reach the
coast as a hurricane.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km
mainly to the north and east of the center.

Latest minimum pressure reported by a NOAA p-3 reconnaissance plane
was is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from South Carolina
into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and central
Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches...through
Saturday. These amounts could cause life-threatening flash floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina late
this afternoon and tonight.

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...31.9 N...79.1 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...993 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

Looks like 60mph sustained winds. According to my NOAA Weather radio......

I'm sticking with that..........

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

[millibar]

Unlike the "episode" in relation to Ernesto's strength prior to Florida landfall, he's forreal now!!!

Tons of rain, major street flooding...waiting for the winds to pick up. And a beach full of tourists...

Regards,
(a very soggy) Millibar