Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311740
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
173100 3054 07851 7028 +0139 259056 +155 +106 261057 046 001
173200 3058 07852 7028 +0115 261058 +159 +106 260060 044 001
173300 3102 07853 7025 +0090 256060 +160 +113 256061 046 001
173400 3106 07854 7029 +0067 254058 +153 +134 253060 050 010
173500 3110 07855 7081 +0054 256061 +149 +131 258064 048 006
173600 3114 07856 7165 +0024 260065 +157 +118 262066 047 002
173700 3118 07857 7101 -0006 258064 +160 +122 259066 053 004
173800 3122 07858 7072 -0035 256058 +167 +114 259060 053 002
173900 3126 07859 7040 -0069 257051 +168 +140 255054 050 003
174000 3130 07900 7070 -0092 265042 +162 +144 259050 048 007

66*0.8 = 52.8 knots, or very close to the SFMR readings.

[kenl01]

Looks like 60mph sustained winds. According to my NOAA Weather radio......

I'm sticking with that..........

No.

...ERNESTO NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

DATA FROM A NOAA P-3 RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE AND REACH THE
COAST AS A HURRICANE.

60 mph is not "near hurricane strength"

This will almost certainly be a hurricane at landfall.

Still not a big deal around here - this thing is well offshore, so just some heavy rains and gusts to 40mph at times this afternoon. Nothing too unusual about that, being that we are on the western side. I was expecting these conditions already this morning...........

In fact, I sincerely hope we get heavier rains before it ends tonight.

[craptacular]

AF plane arriving and descending to operational altitude.

951
SXXX50 KNHC 311757
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 09 KNHC
1744. 3035N 08129W 04098 0211 277 025 018 013 026 04355 0000000000
1745 3035N 08125W 03955 0219 282 027 024 005 028 04221 0000000000
1745. 3035N 08122W 03815 0210 277 030 032 004 033 04071 0000000000
1746 3035N 08119W 03675 0202 279 034 044 010 034 03924 0000000000
1746. 3035N 08115W 03531 0192 279 034 056 014 035 03769 0000000000
1747 3036N 08112W 03393 0183 280 034 060 030 034 03622 0000000000
1747. 3036N 08109W 03248 0172 282 033 070 020 034 03465 0000000000
1748 3036N 08105W 03101 0162 281 033 086 014 033 03308 0000000000
1748. 3036N 08102W 02956 0149 286 034 092 040 034 03150 0000000000
1749 3036N 08059W 02813 0137 286 034 104 050 035 02994 0000000000
1749. 3037N 08056W 02673 0127 282 035 112 070 036 02844 0000000000
1750 3037N 08052W 02530 0117 284 034 118 082 034 02691 0000000000
1750. 3037N 08049W 02387 0105 283 036 122 094 037 02536 0000000000
1751 3037N 08046W 02240 0097 279 037 126 108 038 02378 0000000000
1751. 3037N 08043W 02022 0089 274 036 136 122 036 02143 0000000000
1752 3038N 08040W 01744 0069 276 035 156 136 035 01846 0000000000
1752. 3038N 08038W 01572 0056 278 033 170 144 034 01660 0000000000
1753 3039N 08036W 01557 0049 280 032 176 140 032 01638 0000000000
1753. 3040N 08034W 01573 0049 281 032 172 140 032 01654 0000000000
1754 3042N 08033W 01591 0049 283 031 166 146 032 01672 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311750
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
174100 3133 07900 7084 -0110 266032 +170 +139 265034 038 001
174200 3137 07900 7083 -0125 261024 +174 +129 262029 030 001
174300 3141 07902 7069 -0132 249011 +171 +127 257014 026 000
174400 3145 07903 7072 -0129 234006 +169 +125 242010 023 000
174500 3148 07906 7070 -0119 249007 +171 +126 264009 025 000
174600 3152 07908 7068 -0114 211005 +173 +131 156008 025 000
174700 3154 07911 7066 -0100 113005 +189 +117 077008 999 999
174800 3151 07914 7064 -0094 015008 +181 +128 012012 999 999
174900 3149 07911 7067 -0109 305009 +175 +127 306011 022 000
175000 3152 07908 7067 -0115 231006 +178 +121 187008 027 000

VDM shortly

[Three Blind Mice]

Here in Wilmington it's raining cats and dogs!!! Streets flooding and blowing rain coming off the ocean. 10 -12 hours of this and we'll float away!!

[jwayne]

URNT40 KWBC 311740
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
173100 3054 07851 7028 +0139 259056 +155 +106 261057 046 001
173200 3058 07852 7028 +0115 261058 +159 +106 260060 044 001
173300 3102 07853 7025 +0090 256060 +160 +113 256061 046 001
173400 3106 07854 7029 +0067 254058 +153 +134 253060 050 010
173500 3110 07855 7081 +0054 256061 +149 +131 258064 048 006
173600 3114 07856 7165 +0024 260065 +157 +118 262066 047 002
173700 3118 07857 7101 -0006 258064 +160 +122 259066 053 004
173800 3122 07858 7072 -0035 256058 +167 +114 259060 053 002
173900 3126 07859 7040 -0069 257051 +168 +140 255054 050 003
174000 3130 07900 7070 -0092 265042 +162 +144 259050 048 007

66*0.8 = 52.8 knots, or very close to the SFMR readings.

since that is from the noaa flight, I thought those were the sfmr readings which would make this a hurricane. am I missing something?

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KWBC 311746
XXAA 81188 99311 70789 11618 99000 26411 22551 00000 26411 22551
92686 21805 23561 85420 19004 25060 88999 77999
31313 09608 81734
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 SPL 3116N07886W 1737 WL150 22558 085 DLM WND 24558 999782 M
BL WND 23060 EYEWALL 135=
XXBB 81188 99311 70789 11618 00000 26411 11993 25812 22940 22603
33781 15413
21212 00000 22551 11995 22557 22969 23063 33944 23060 44920 23562
55909 24057 66878 24562 77851 25060 88838 25064 99781 25559
31313 09608 81734
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 23
62626 SPL 3116N07886W 1737 WL150 22558 085 DLM WND 24558 999782 M
BL WND 23060 EYEWALL 135=

51 knots at the surface in the eyewall, with 61 knots at 925mb.

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311740
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
173100 3054 07851 7028 +0139 259056 +155 +106 261057 046 001
173200 3058 07852 7028 +0115 261058 +159 +106 260060 044 001
173300 3102 07853 7025 +0090 256060 +160 +113 256061 046 001
173400 3106 07854 7029 +0067 254058 +153 +134 253060 050 010
173500 3110 07855 7081 +0054 256061 +149 +131 258064 048 006
173600 3114 07856 7165 +0024 260065 +157 +118 262066 047 002
173700 3118 07857 7101 -0006 258064 +160 +122 259066 053 004
173800 3122 07858 7072 -0035 256058 +167 +114 259060 053 002
173900 3126 07859 7040 -0069 257051 +168 +140 255054 050 003
174000 3130 07900 7070 -0092 265042 +162 +144 259050 048 007

66*0.8 = 52.8 knots, or very close to the SFMR readings.

since that is from the noaa flight, I thought those were the sfmr readings which would make this a hurricane. am I missing something?

The highlighted number is the flight-level wind. The SFMR is the column to the right of that, which had mainly 45-50 knots in this set.

[cycloneye]

Another VDM in minutes.

[craptacular]

AF plane has also arrived, so we've got two to watch.

[StormsAhead]

AF observation:

URNT11 KNHC 311803
97779 17534 50307 80618 15600 28032 18148 /2501
42930
RMK AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 01

30 knots at the surface

[Steve]

>>Here in Wilmington it's raining cats and dogs!!! Streets flooding and blowing rain coming off the ocean. 10 -12 hours of this and we'll float away!!

You'll do fine. Keep it cool, ice up some brew and enjoy the show. It's not a big-killer storm, just one of those you guys see every couple of years. Get lots of photos and video.

Steve

[StormsAhead]

AF dropsonde:

UZNT13 KNHC 311802
XXAA 81188 99307 70806 11700 99008 27036 28027 00072 26431 28028
92756 21012 30030 85487 17423 28530 88999 77999
31313 09608 81753
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 3067N08055W 1755 MBL WND 28529 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29029
007872 WL150 28028 083 =
XXBB 81188 99307 70806 11700 00008 27036 11949 22408 22850 17423
33838 16622
21212 00008 28027 11958 29031 22923 30030 33872 29528 44838 28531
31313 09608 81753
61616 AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 3067N08055W 1755 MBL WND 28529 AEV 20604 DLM WND 29029
007872 WL150 28028 083 =

1008mb, 27 knots at the surface

[MiamiensisWx]

>>Here in Wilmington it's raining cats and dogs!!! Streets flooding and blowing rain coming off the ocean. 10 -12 hours of this and we'll float away!!

You'll do fine. Keep it cool, ice up some brew and enjoy the show. It's not a big-killer storm, just one of those you guys see every couple of years. Get lots of photos and video.

Steve

I think that's a bit premature to say. Similar storms under similar synoptics that have impacted the South Carolina/North Carolina area have caused very extensive wind damages and coastal flooding. Good examples are Ophelia, Isabel, Alex, Gaston, and many more. All did not make landfall as major hurricanes, either. Tropical storm-force to Category One one-minute sustained winds or gusts, topped by coastal and inland flooding, is quite destructive. The geography of coastal (and inland) South Carolina and North Carolina and the barrier islands only enhance an already dangerous risk.

[Steve]

>>I think that's a bit premature to say. Similar storms under similar synoptics that have impacted the South Carolina/North Carolina area have caused very extensive wind damages and coastal flooding. Good examples are Ophelia, Isabel, Alex, Gaston, and many more. All did not make landfall as major hurricanes, either. Tropical storm-force to Category One one-minute sustained winds or gusts, topped by coastal and inland flooding, is quite destructive. The geography of coastal (and inland) South Carolina and North Carolina and the barrier islands only enhance an already dangerous risk.

I'm not saying it's a dud or something to completely ignore. The poster ought to know what his location can handle. I've spent some time up that way (and have read many reports from people on this and other sites about coastal NC/SC), so I'm pretty familiar with the situation and issues they face. Outside of lots of rain (which I had suggested in a will thread last week that Ernesto could have greater impacts for the coastal Carolinas than for Florida) and some coastal/lowlying flooding, it's not going to be that bad. Things are different up there (especially Dare County) where you sometimes have pretty wide stretches of dunes and beach (often where you can't even see the Ocean from the highway) that require quite a surge to cover. Almost all tropical storms cause some problems, they just aren't usually as serious in the Carolinas outside of lowlying areas. They see at least a brush-by Cat-1 every 2-3 years, so the citizens up thataway will know what to do.

Steve

[NFLDART]

IMO the greatest risk from this storm will be the inland flooding. Especially in the areas already saturated from earlier rainfall this week

[craptacular]

AF plane coming in from SW

917
SXXX50 KNHC 311811
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 10 KNHC
1754. 3043N 08031W 01589 0048 282 030 166 146 031 01668 0000000000
1755 3044N 08030W 01580 0045 279 032 168 150 033 01656 0000000000
1755. 3045N 08029W 01582 0045 281 031 166 152 031 01658 0000000000
1756 3047N 08027W 01580 0044 283 031 166 146 031 01656 0000000000
1756. 3048N 08026W 01581 0043 283 031 166 144 032 01655 0000000000
1757 3049N 08024W 01580 0042 282 031 168 140 031 01653 0000000000
1757. 3051N 08023W 01562 0040 279 031 170 138 032 01634 0000000000
1758 3052N 08021W 01566 0039 281 032 174 142 032 01636 0000000000
1758. 3053N 08020W 01564 0039 285 031 172 148 032 01634 0000000000
1759 3054N 08018W 01565 0038 285 032 172 148 032 01634 0000000000
1759. 3056N 08017W 01563 0037 286 032 174 144 034 01632 0000000000
1800 3057N 08016W 01565 0036 286 034 170 146 035 01633 0000000000
1800. 3058N 08014W 01563 0036 285 032 172 148 033 01630 0000000000
1801 3059N 08013W 01564 0034 288 035 176 146 037 01629 0000000000
1801. 3101N 08011W 01564 0034 290 032 172 152 033 01629 0000000000
1802 3102N 08010W 01565 0032 292 033 170 164 034 01628 0000000000
1802. 3103N 08008W 01563 0031 293 035 166 164 035 01626 0000000000
1803 3104N 08007W 01565 0030 293 036 166 166 037 01627 0000000000
1803. 3106N 08006W 01563 0028 296 037 166 166 038 01622 0000000000
1804 3107N 08004W 01564 0026 295 039 158 158 041 01621 0000000000

[StormsAhead]

URNT40 KWBC 311800
NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO
175100 3155 07909 7065 -0105 150006 +177 +127 122008 027 000
175200 3156 07913 7069 -0085 071009 +185 +124 056013 030 000
175300 3157 07917 7073 -0058 036017 +174 +133 039019 031 000
175400 3158 07916 7064 -0062 043019 +173 +131 043022 031 000
175500 3156 07913 7069 -0088 038007 +178 +130 053010 029 000
175600 3153 07909 7074 -0105 183002 +173 +130 178005 999 999
175700 3150 07911 7067 -0107 342008 +166 +150 337017 034 004
175800 3147 07914 7051 -0092 323015 +174 +136 337018 034 005
175900 3144 07917 7053 -0063 308022 +174 +115 309025 040 005
180000 3141 07920 7094 -0029 315024 +162 +129 315026 041 005

[NFLDART]

Looks like wrightsville, Kure and topsail will be in for another really bumpy ride tonight.

[NFLDART]

What will be interesting to see is when this thing becomes extra-tropical as it interacts with the trough.