TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

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NFLDART
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#241 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:08 pm

It has expanded quite a bit wahat is the windswath now
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#242 Postby carve » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:09 pm

Sure looks like that eye wants to show itself
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#243 Postby shaggy » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:10 pm

if it could close off that northern part of the COC i think it would drop pressure quickly but its having a hard time doing that and it doesnt seem to me that this is happening
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#244 Postby NFLDART » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:11 pm

Looking at radar images... Some very Heavy weather is already affecting the area.
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#245 Postby ga_ben » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:49 pm

Boy this thread died all of a sudden. Where'd everyone go?
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#246 Postby krisj » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:51 pm

Well, here in Charleston the news has said we dodged a bullet and nothing is going on except rain.
I think everyone is tired and waiting for the 5pm forcast.
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#247 Postby Meso » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:51 pm

I think they all ran to the advisory thread...
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#248 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:55 pm

Perhaps the storm it tilted in the vertical, but it sure looks like it's moving more NE than NNE on the Charleston / KCLX radar... On the 248nm BR 0.5degree scan, the beam is about 17,000' above sea level at the range of the center of circulation... I haven't plotted the VORTEX message-indicated center yet, though.
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#249 Postby ga_ben » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:56 pm

I've been away from the puter about 30 minutes. Since this thread had no activity I thought Ernie may have been upgraded and a new thread started. Sure looks like he his on the threshold.
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#250 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:57 pm

WxGuy1 wrote:Perhaps the storm it tilted in the vertical, but it sure looks like it's moving more NE than NNE on the Charleston / KCLX radar... On the 248nm BR 0.5degree scan, the beam is about 17,000' above sea level at the range of the center of circulation... I haven't plotted the VORTEX message-indicated center yet, though.


We were discussing that here. The consensus is that the small open area visible on CHS radar that's moving NE is not the center. Center appears nearly over 32N/79W now.
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#251 Postby Grease Monkey » Thu Aug 31, 2006 1:57 pm

Based on the structure. I smell a cane very soon.
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#252 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
WxGuy1 wrote:Perhaps the storm it tilted in the vertical, but it sure looks like it's moving more NE than NNE on the Charleston / KCLX radar... On the 248nm BR 0.5degree scan, the beam is about 17,000' above sea level at the range of the center of circulation... I haven't plotted the VORTEX message-indicated center yet, though.


We were discussing that here. The consensus is that the small open area visible on CHS radar that's moving NE is not the center. Center appears nearly over 32N/79W now.


That's wierd. That "hole" has been so persistent for the past couple of hours, and,if you looked at just a single image time, it certainly looks like it'd be the center, particularly given how the echoes seem to "funnel" / spiral right into that area. A little mesovortex rotating about the overall center? Too bad it's so far from CLX. It does appears as though it is "swinging" back around to a NNE heading now.
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#253 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:04 pm

we will have a hurricane at 5pm.... the eye will show itself within 2-4 hours....
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#254 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:04 pm

Image

eye is coming.
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#255 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:05 pm

31/1745 UTC 31.8N 79.1W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

SSD sat estimate has it as a hurricane.
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#256 Postby rnbaida » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:07 pm

BASED ON RADAR AND SAT IMAGE(SSD) WE HAVE A 75MPH HURRICANE...
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#257 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:08 pm

rnbaida wrote:BASED ON RADAR AND SAT IMAGE(SSD) WE HAVE A 75MPH HURRICANE...


Nice...Man did FL get lucky or what..
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#258 Postby WxGuy1 » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:08 pm

rnbaida wrote:BASED ON RADAR AND SAT IMAGE(SSD) WE HAVE A 75MPH HURRICANE...


Based on what radar? I don't see anything to support 65kts at the surface based on any radar I'm looking at. And remember, the post above yours is just one satellite estimate. Recon data is not indicating that Ernesto is that strong (yet, at least), and I'd take Recon data over satellite estimates.

The closest radar (Charleston) is scanning well over 10,000' above sea level at the range of the center, and it isn't showing anything to indicate it's within Cat 1 range.
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:11 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#259 Postby NCWeatherChic » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:08 pm

cycloneye wrote:31/1745 UTC 31.8N 79.1W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

SSD sat estimate has it as a hurricane.



WOW! This is the info I was hunting for today. Good mindreader!

Angela
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#260 Postby artist » Thu Aug 31, 2006 2:08 pm

according to recon I think the highest winds found at the moment are 54 surface.
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