Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[UpTheCreek]

Storm surge in the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds will be a big factor, at least where I live. If the Neuse River blows it's top, we have a world of hurt around these parts.

[NFLDART]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[shaggy]

people forget that TS dennis in 99 gave the pamlico sound a higher a storm surge than bertha and almost as high as fran when he came ashore.The wind at the right direction can really do damage to these sounds

[NFLDART]

What are your tides supposed to be at Landfall

[rainstorm]

looks like a cape lookout landfall tomorrow am

[rainstorm]

it appears to be moving ene

[craptacular]

000
URNT12 KWBC 311813
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/1756Z
B. 31 DEG 52 MIN N
79 DEG 9 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1379 M
D. 50 KT
E. 160 DEG 10 NM
F. 258 DEG 65 KT
G. 164 DEG 36 NM
H. 993 MB
I. 18 C/2155 M
J. 20 C/2152 M
K. 11 C/NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 24 AL052006
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 1736Z
STRONG CONVECTION WEST OF CENTER

FYI, the AF plane should have a VDM soon as well.

[HurricaneGirl]

wow up to 70 mph... i think a Holy Crap!! is in order.

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto is getting stronger and also growing in size. It should not surprise anyone if he comes in as a hurricane.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[craptacular]

106
SXXX50 KNHC 311828
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 12 KNHC
1814. 3134N 07933W 01528 5015 295 037 172 172 037 01544 0000000000
1815 3135N 07932W 01523 5018 297 041 176 172 041 01536 0000000000
1815. 3137N 07930W 01524 5022 295 043 178 170 045 01533 0000000000
1816 3138N 07928W 01525 5026 293 048 172 166 049 01531 0000000000
1816. 3139N 07927W 01519 5028 290 039 154 154 042 01522 0000000000
1817 3141N 07925W 01526 5029 292 030 154 154 031 01529 0000000000
1817. 3142N 07924W 01519 5034 299 034 172 172 035 01516 0000000000
1818 3144N 07923W 01523 5039 305 038 162 162 040 01516 0000000000
1818. 3145N 07921W 01524 5045 307 039 156 156 042 01510 0000000000
1819 3146N 07920W 01525 5047 318 035 154 154 036 01510 0000000000
1819. 3147N 07919W 01528 5049 320 034 158 158 035 01509 0000000000
1820 3149N 07918W 01522 5052 314 032 174 174 034 01501 0000000000
1820. 3150N 07917W 01523 5056 315 030 176 176 031 01499 0000000000
1821 3151N 07915W 01525 5058 316 030 180 180 031 01497 0000000000
1821. 3152N 07914W 01522 5062 323 030 180 180 030 01491 0000000000
1822 3153N 07913W 01525 5066 319 030 182 182 031 01489 0000000000
1822. 3155N 07911W 01525 5070 318 027 184 184 028 01486 0000000000
1823 3156N 07910W 01525 5074 317 024 190 184 026 01482 0000000000
1823. 3157N 07908W 01526 5077 302 015 184 184 019 01480 0000000000
1824 3158N 07907W 01519 5079 237 003 184 184 007 01471 0000000000

[craptacular]

Last four NOAA VDMs

A. 31/1407Z
B. 31 DEG 1 MIN N
79 DEG 28 MIN W

A. 31/1525Z
B. 31 DEG 21 MIN N
79 DEG 21 MIN W

A. 31/1635Z
B. 31 DEG 33 MIN N
79 DEG 16 MIN W

A. 31/1756Z
B. 31 DEG 52 MIN N
79 DEG 9 MIN W

last two - moving 17mph at 17 degrees (NNE)

[craptacular]

901
SXXX50 KNHC 311838
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 13 KNHC
1824. 3200N 07906W 01521 5078 104 008 184 184 011 01474 0000000000
1825 3202N 07906W 01533 5075 088 011 182 182 012 01488 0000000000
1825. 3203N 07905W 01525 5074 087 006 186 186 009 01482 0000000000
1826 3204N 07903W 01520 5076 077 005 194 182 006 01475 0000000000
1826. 3205N 07902W 01527 5075 111 004 196 182 005 01483 0000000000
1827 3207N 07900W 01522 5076 129 008 200 178 010 01477 0000000000
1827. 3208N 07859W 01524 5075 138 016 200 174 019 01480 0000000000
1828 3209N 07857W 01524 5073 133 020 198 176 023 01481 0000000000
1828. 3210N 07856W 01523 5073 131 023 186 186 025 01482 0000000000
1829 3211N 07855W 01523 5070 125 026 186 186 027 01484 0000000000
1829. 3213N 07853W 01527 5067 129 028 182 182 030 01491 0000000000
1830 3214N 07852W 01521 5065 127 038 172 172 041 01487 0000000000
1830. 3215N 07850W 01526 5062 125 036 174 174 038 01495 0000000000
1831 3216N 07848W 01523 5058 123 041 182 164 042 01496 0000000000
1831. 3217N 07847W 01526 5056 125 042 180 162 045 01501 0000000000
1832 3218N 07846W 01524 5052 130 050 172 172 050 01503 0000000000
1832. 3219N 07845W 01526 5049 132 050 170 168 051 01508 0000000000
1833 3221N 07843W 01524 5045 132 049 172 162 050 01510 0000000000
1833. 3222N 07842W 01524 5043 134 050 176 162 050 01513 0000000000
1834 3223N 07840W 01523 5040 136 049 176 168 050 01514 0000000000

[storms in NC]

it appears to be moving ene

I just looked a still NNE

[artist]

seems to still be a tropical storm from what I see.

[craptacular]

835
URNT12 KNHC 311837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/18:23:40Z
B. 31 deg 56 min N
079 deg 09 min W
C. 850 mb 1378 m
D. 50 kt
E. 227 deg 027 nm
F. 293 deg 049 kt
G. 226 deg 024 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 17 C/ 1530 m
J. 19 C/ 1528 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 03
MAX FL WIND 49 KT SW QUAD 18:15:40 Z
;

[rainstorm]

no, it moven .5 west and .6 north the last 3 hours so its noving ne now. hurricane warnings should be up now for all of nc and se virgina

[HURAKAN]

Forecasts are getting better. It was forecasted to intensify and become a hurricane before arriving in Florida after leaving Cuba and it didn't. It wasn't forecasted to become a hurricane before reaching the Carolinas and it's doing the opposite.

[craptacular]

first AF VDM
835
URNT12 KNHC 311837
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/18:23:40Z
B. 31 deg 56 min N
079 deg 09 min W

H. 993 mb

Nice match.

[dwsqos2]

552
UZNT13 KWBC 311834
XXAA 81188 99316 70794 11619 99998 25212 30052 00518 ///// /////
92668 22819 30049 85404 19209 31042 88999 77999
31313 09608 81801
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 27
62626 SPL 3161N07937W 1803 WL150 29557 085 DLM WND 30043 997781 M
BL WND 29553 EYEWALL 225=
XXBB 81188 99316 70794 11619 00998 25212 11989 25016 22974 25228
33846 19007 44793 16425 55780 15207
21212 00998 30052 11990 29557 22979 29558 33955 30048 44920 30050
55909 30545 66863 30547 77780 28523
31313 09608 81801
61616 NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO OB 27
62626 SPL 3161N07937W 1803 WL150 29557 085 DLM WND 30043 997781 M
BL WND 29553 EYEWALL 225=

998 mb and 52 knots at the surface

[rnbaida]

it is trying to form an eyewall or raar and visible sat...