Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[bjackrian]

NOAA plane is leaving...did we ever get a VDM from its last pass through the center?

[craptacular]

can someone decipher the last cener fix in coordinates? Thanks

A. 31/19:47:10Z (3:47 EST)
B. 32 deg 17 min N
078 deg 50 min W

[SouthFloridawx]

73 X .80 X 1.15 = 67.16MPH.

I am pretty sure if this is not a hurricane at landfall there will certainly be some Hurricane Gusts felt along the shore.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

When will recon be back?

[Derek Ortt]

AF is in there until 0Z

[artist]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 301530
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT WED 30 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z AUG TO 01/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-092

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERNESTO
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 31/1500Z A. 31/1800,2100,01/0000Z
B. NOAA2 2205A ERNESTO B. AFXXX 2305A ERNESTO
C. 31/1300Z C. 31/1515Z
D. 31.5N 80.02W D. 32.0N 80.0W
E. 31/1400Z TO 31/1800Z E. 31/1700 TO 01/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE
A. 01/0300,0600,0900Z
B. AFXXX 2405A ERNESTO
C. 31/2345Z
D. 34.5N 77.5WW
E. 01/0200Z TO 01/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: MISSIONS FROM 30/0900Z TO 31/0600Z
CANCELED BECAUSE SYSTEM OVERLAND

[craptacular]

NOAA plane is leaving...did we ever get a VDM from its last pass through the center?

Haven't seen it come through.

[craptacular]

SXXX50 KNHC 312017
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 04 KNHC
2004. 3139N 07803W 01520 5004 241 056 170 168 057 01548 0000000000
2005 3138N 07801W 01527 5001 243 056 174 164 057 01557 0000000000
2005. 3136N 07800W 01520 0002 240 058 172 166 059 01553 0000000000
2006 3135N 07759W 01527 0005 236 058 176 158 058 01564 0000000000
2006. 3134N 07757W 01521 0006 235 058 180 150 058 01559 0000000000
2007 3133N 07756W 01526 0009 234 058 176 162 059 01567 0000000000
2007. 3132N 07755W 01524 0011 232 056 172 166 058 01566 0000000000
2008 3130N 07753W 01524 0012 234 054 174 164 055 01567 0000000000
2008. 3129N 07752W 01522 0014 234 053 176 168 054 01568 0000000000
2009 3128N 07751W 01526 0016 232 057 174 158 058 01573 0000000000
2009. 3127N 07750W 01524 0016 233 058 174 156 058 01572 0000000000
2010 3126N 07748W 01524 0018 235 056 172 162 057 01574 0000000000
2010. 3124N 07747W 01525 0020 235 055 176 162 055 01576 0000000000
2011 3123N 07746W 01523 0021 237 055 178 158 057 01576 0000000000
2011. 3122N 07744W 01524 0022 238 058 174 150 059 01577 0000000000
2012 3121N 07743W 01526 0024 238 057 170 152 058 01582 0000000000
2012. 3119N 07742W 01521 0026 238 056 170 154 056 01578 0000000000
2013 3118N 07740W 01528 0027 239 055 170 156 055 01586 0000000000
2013. 3117N 07739W 01520 0028 240 054 168 156 054 01579 0000000000
2014 3116N 07738W 01527 0029 238 053 164 160 054 01588 000000000


someone want to take over?

[craptacular]

Can someone take over posting the recon data? Thanks.

[bjackrian]

010
SXXX50 KNHC 312028
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 05 KNHC
2014. 3114N 07736W 01524 0031 238 054 166 156 054 01586 0000000000
2015 3113N 07735W 01523 0032 238 052 168 152 053 01587 0000000000
2015. 3112N 07734W 01525 0033 238 051 170 154 051 01589 0000000000
2016 3111N 07732W 01523 0034 240 051 174 150 051 01589 0000000000
2016. 3110N 07731W 01529 0037 240 050 174 152 051 01597 0000000000
2017 3108N 07730W 01531 0042 240 055 178 148 057 01605 0000000000
2017. 3107N 07728W 01524 0044 240 055 176 146 055 01599 0000000000
2018 3105N 07726W 01523 0044 241 055 172 152 055 01598 0000000000
2018. 3104N 07725W 01525 0046 239 053 176 146 054 01602 0000000000
2019 3102N 07723W 01522 0046 239 054 178 142 054 01600 0000000000
2019. 3101N 07722W 01525 0048 238 052 182 140 053 01605 0000000000
2020 3059N 07720W 01523 0051 238 050 182 140 051 01605 0000000000
2020. 3059N 07718W 01529 0053 236 049 180 142 049 01613 0000000000
2021 3101N 07716W 01523 0052 233 048 178 140 049 01606 0000000000
2021. 3103N 07717W 01519 0049 230 047 184 140 048 01600 0000000000
2022 3105N 07717W 01525 0048 228 050 184 136 051 01604 0000000000
2022. 3107N 07716W 01523 0047 227 053 184 136 054 01601 0000000000
2023 3109N 07715W 01527 0046 225 052 182 138 054 01604 0000000000
2023. 3112N 07714W 01524 0045 226 052 180 140 052 01601 0000000000
2024 3114N 07713W 01524 0044 226 053 184 140 053 01599 0000000000

55 kt at FL, 127 mi from last VDM

[hurricanefloyd5]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Ernesto expected to reach the coast tonight...weather should
deteriorate soon...
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
from Edisto Beach South Carolina southward.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Edisto Beach
to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.6 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 120
miles...195 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina and
about 75 miles...125 km...east of Charleston South Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track...the center of Ernesto will cross the coast tonight.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with
higher gusts. However...Ernesto could reach the coast as a
category one hurricane.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the east of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane
was 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches...through Saturday. These amounts could cause
life-threatening flash floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina through
tonight.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...32.6 N...78.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...991 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[bjackrian]

Can someone take over posting the recon data? Thanks.

Got it. As you probably noticed.

[bjackrian]

368
SXXX50 KNHC 312037
AF300 2305A ERNESTO HDOB 06 KNHC
2024. 3116N 07711W 01526 0044 225 053 180 140 053 01601 0000000000
2025 3118N 07710W 01519 0042 225 053 178 142 053 01592 0000000000
2025. 3120N 07709W 01527 0042 222 053 176 144 054 01600 0000000000
2026 3122N 07708W 01522 0041 220 054 172 146 055 01594 0000000000
2026. 3125N 07707W 01527 0041 218 054 174 146 054 01599 0000000000
2027 3127N 07706W 01521 0040 218 054 180 142 054 01593 0000000000
2027. 3129N 07705W 01526 0040 218 055 176 144 055 01598 0000000000
2028 3131N 07704W 01521 0041 217 055 178 140 055 01593 0000000000
2028. 3133N 07703W 01526 0041 216 054 180 138 054 01598 0000000000
2029 3135N 07702W 01525 0041 215 054 178 142 055 01597 0000000000
2029. 3138N 07701W 01521 0041 212 054 180 140 054 01593 0000000000
2030 3140N 07700W 01525 0041 212 053 176 140 054 01597 0000000000
2030. 3142N 07659W 01525 0040 211 051 172 144 052 01596 0000000000
2031 3144N 07659W 01524 0039 210 052 176 156 054 01594 0000000000
2031. 3147N 07700W 01515 0037 213 053 174 170 054 01583 0000000000
2032 3149N 07700W 01520 0033 213 054 176 172 055 01584 0000000000
2032. 3151N 07700W 01528 0031 209 053 172 172 053 01590 0000000000
2033 3153N 07700W 01534 0035 205 054 176 166 055 01601 0000000000
2033. 3155N 07700W 01525 0036 202 055 176 150 056 01592 0000000000
2034 3157N 07700W 01523 0035 202 053 170 160 053 01590 0000000000

55 kt at FL 110 miles east of last VDM.

[artist]

has anyone thanked you guys lately for taking the time to post the recon info? Having done it last year I know it takes al ot of time out of your day.
Thanks everyone!

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC THU AUG 31 2006

AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS DISCONTINUED
FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA SOUTHWARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.


TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 60SW 25NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 50SW 25NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 78.7W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 25SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.6N 78.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT THU AUG 31 2006

EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE
60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS
TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.

ONCE INLAND AND BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERNESTO SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE REMNANT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE AND
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.

THE COMBINATION OF ERNESTO AND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS FROM THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS ARE NOT DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/2100Z 32.6N 78.7W 60 KT
12HR VT 01/0600Z 34.7N 78.0W 50 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 01/1800Z 37.0N 77.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 02/0600Z 38.5N 77.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/1800Z 41.0N 78.5W 25 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Josephine96]

I'm guessing he's not going to regain Cat 1 status..?

[rnbaida]

it will be a cane by 8pm

[artist]

it will be a cane by 8pm

do you have info you can post to back that up?

[bjackrian]

has anyone thanked you guys lately for taking the time to post the recon info? Having done it last year I know it takes al ot of time out of your day.
Thanks everyone!

No problem

[rnbaida]

i dont need any back up.... what makes you think it wont be a cane?