TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[artist]

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.

It is dangerous to make a statement ike that at a time like this - please include this is just your opinion.

[marcane_1973]

The storm track will be shifting even more East. This is a wilmington maybe even Hatteras storm now. Looks like Hatteras will get the worst winds and storm surge. Myrtle Beach you are in the clear now. The last several frames shows Ernesto is moving more East.

I definitely wouldn't say in the clear: http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ltx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The worst weather will be way offshore of Myrtle Beach so basically yes. They are only expected to get 35 mph winds if that. Oak Island, Carolina Beach, Caswell Beach, and Bald Island they are in for some rough weather.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto :
Text Information: Public Advisory Marine Advisory Discussion Coordinates Wind Probabilities

Available Maps:

Tracking
5 Day Forecast
Satellite
Radar Loop
Flash Tracker
Historical
Computer Models
Storm History

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



...Ernesto expected to reach the coast tonight...weather should
deteriorate soon...
At 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...the Tropical Storm Warning is discontinued
from Edisto Beach South Carolina southward.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Edisto Beach
to Currituck Beach Light including the Pamlico and Albemarle
sounds.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 500 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 32.6 north...longitude 78.7 west or about 120
miles...195 km...south-southwest of Wilmington North Carolina and
about 75 miles...125 km...east of Charleston South Carolina.

Ernesto is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
On this track...the center of Ernesto will cross the coast tonight.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with
higher gusts. However...Ernesto could reach the coast as a
category one hurricane.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
mainly to the east of the center.

Latest minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane
was 991 mb...29.26 inches.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels
is possible along the coasts of south and North Carolina in areas
of onshore flow within the warning area.

Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible from northeastern
South Carolina into the mid-Atlantic states...and the southern and
central Appalachians...with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches...through Saturday. These amounts could cause
life-threatening flash floods.

Isolated tornadoes are possible over eastern North Carolina through
tonight.

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...32.6 N...78.7 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...70
mph. Minimum central pressure...991 mb.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 800 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 1100
PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Brent]

Discussion snip:

EXTENSIVE RECONNAISSANCE WITH BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERNESTO ARE
60 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 991 MB. SATELLITE AND
RADAR PRESENTATION SHOW A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND
WRAPPING AROUND AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ERNESTO
IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS AND ON THIS
TRACK...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT WITH 60 KNOTS. ONE CAN NOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY A SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE AT
LANDFALL.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 29

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2006



extensive reconnaissance with both NOAA and Air Force aircraft
indicate that the maximum surface winds associated with Ernesto are
60 knots. The central minimum pressure is 991 mb. Satellite and
radar presentation show a well defined convective curved band
wrapping around an area of deep convection near the center. Ernesto
is moving toward the north-northeast at 15 knots and on this
track...the cyclone is forecast to reach the coast within the
warning area tonight with 60 knots. One can not rule out the
possibility a slight strengthening to a category one hurricane at
landfall.

Once inland and beyond 36 hours...Ernesto should begin to interact
with a frontal system and become extratropical by 48 hours.
However...the remnant system is expected to move little and
produce heavy rains over portions of the eastern United States.

The combination of Ernesto and a strong high pressure area to the
northeast is expected to produce gale force winds from the Delmarva
Peninsula northward. However...these winds are not directly
associated with the circulation of the tropical cyclone. See
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 31/2100z 32.6n 78.7w 60 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 34.7n 78.0w 50 kt...inland
24hr VT 01/1800z 37.0n 77.5w 30 kt...inland
36hr VT 02/0600z 38.5n 77.5w 25 kt...extratropical
48hr VT 02/1800z 41.0n 78.5w 25 kt...extratropical
72hr VT 03/1800z...absorbed by a frontal system

$$
forecaster Avila

[Epsilon_Fan]

it looks like it took a slight easterly jog on the current loop... this may even miss Myrtle Beach and hit more up toward Wilmington. He looks to be getting stronger as it looks as if an eyewall is forming...

[westmoon]

Looking better by the minute. Guess i'm having crow for dinner too.

[Trugunzn]

[storms in NC]

It is moveing NNE @15MPH

[westmoon]

It's almost like he is trying to buy himself more time over water.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

---
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from South Santee River South
Carolina to Cape Lookout North Carolina. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...in
this case within the next 6 to 12 hours.
---

I found that part most alarming.
I know it's not a hurricane yet, but why not just go ahead and issue the warnings? I guess because it doesn't meet criteria?

With Alberto (2006) wasn't there hurricane warnings? Or was that just watches?

[TampaFl]

5:00PM postion.

[marcane_1973]

Latest track has Ernesto making landfall just a little west of Cape Fear around 11:00 PM. Information provided by Mark Sudduth at Hurricanetrack.com

[Swimdude]

I really am cheering him on to regain hurricane status. I don't think the difference between 70 and 75 mph will rip anyone's roof off... [Literally...]

I am a bit concerned about the fact that this storm is strengthening while making its landfall. I've heard that a storm can seem like a category above or below what it actually is, depending on whether it's weakening or strengthening at landfall.

[MiamiensisWx]

With Alberto (2006) wasn't there hurricane warnings? Or was that just watches?

There were hurricane warnings for the Big Bend area of Florida (Cedar Key/St. Marks) with Alberto.

[artist]

Did they get hit from any of the canes last year? Anyone there still have blue roofs, if so? I hope not. Riding around here the other day made me notice how many here still do have them.

[brunota2003]

Did they get hit from any of the canes last year? Anyone there still have blue roofs, if so? I hope not. Riding around here the other day made me notice how many here still do have them.

here where I'm at, while not expected to receive super bad winds, we still do have some people recovering from Ophelia...

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I thought so CDW. If Ernesto becomes a hurricane then the NHC is going to get so much negativity for not putting the warnings up, whether they deserve it or not.

And artist, I think only Ophelia affected NC last year.

[NFLDART]

Once again IMO this is going to be a Major Rain event. The forecast interaction with the front would cause way more rainfall than these areas can handle.

[artist]

according to the news they have moved their forecast points further east now at the 5 advisory..