TS Ernesto Satellite, Analysis, Models Thread #10

[brunota2003]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

The 65kt vortex.

you mean the estimated winds? According to the mets here, they are only estimated winds and the NHC hardly ever uses them...

[superfly]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

The 65kt vortex.

The 65kt in the vortex was an eyeball estimate from an on-board met, hardly scientific.

[ThunderMate]

Just add the 18 mph movement on and we have the hurricane we were waiting for. Still NNE and picking up speed...this thing is probably going to make a landfall around Cape fear or Cape lookout NC tonight around 10-11 pm . Right now my anemometer has a max of around 10mph and is increasing with the leading edges of ernesto about to cross the NC/VA boarder now. Im going to the beach tomm to shoot some video and take some data when possible and stay on here as long as i have power.

[george_r_1961]

If they dont upgrade this to a hurricane they would be making a very bad call.... right now i think the winds havny cought up to the pressure... give it 1-2 more hours....

If the winds haven't caught up, why would it be a bad call?

Its interacting with land...i think thats why the winds have not responded to the pressure falls.

[UpTheCreek]

Where are the confirmation of hurricane force winds? I see a flight level wind of 63Kt as the highest measured. That would require winds to be faster at the surface which isn't likely.the VDM had an estimated surface wind of 65kt, but no confirmation on that. We'd need to see some dropsonde data to see what the ratio of flight - surface winds are before we can call it a hurricane.

The 65kt vortex.

Now I want you to honestly tell me whats the REAL difference between 70 and 75mph and the name difference? It's a mental thing, even Knabb said so the other day on TV.

So those of us in it's path can say we're in a HURRICANE!!! Of course, you're right.....really a mental thing. But I've got to admit, I want it to be called a hurricane too!

[cycloneye]

70 or 75 mph will not make a big difference in terms of the effects in the area of landfall as they will be the same.

[whereverwx]

Hmmm...

[HurricaneGirl]

Almost looks like an eye

[Normandy]

TS my butt.
That looks like a hurricane (and recon supports it).

Althought that is not an eye, but a dry spot

[bjackrian]

It looks to me like the NHC plot is a little in front of the apparent center on radar and from the last VDM Anyone else seeing that, or are my eyes finally crossing after staring at radars all day?

[milfordmawx]

The highest gust from the buoy's is 47mph off the Charleston coast http://www.pdfamily.com/weather/buoy/SEbuoy.php

[JonathanBelles]

will it be inland by 11 'o clock

[Opal storm]

I've been watching TWC and I've heard that a lot of people there are not concerned about a tropical storm but they said they would evacuate only for hurricanes.Like cycloneye said,there's not much if any difference between 70mph and 75mph.A 60 to 70mph tropical storm can do a surprising amount of damage.

[HurricaneGirl]

i know tropical storms don't have eyes, but it darn sure looks like it on the last frames. and the complete banding around the center is on the last frame as well.

[carve]

I looked at the last visible on the NOAA board before it wen't dark....the very last frame it sure looked like an eye!

[JonathanBelles]

i know tropical storms don't have eyes, but it darn sure looks like it on the last frames. and the complete banding around the center is on the last frame as well.

ts's can have eyes

[rnbaida]

URNT12 KNHC 010006
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 31/23:51:30Z
B. 33 deg 12 min N
078 deg 20 min W
C. 850 mb 1350 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 070 deg 048 kt
G. 345 deg 017 nm
H. 990 mb
I. 15 C/ 1524 m
J. 19 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN N-ENE
M. C20
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2305A ERNESTO OB 20
MAX FL WIND 63 KT SE QUAD 23:08:20 Z

[Derek Ortt]

Strong tropical storm almost always form eyes if they are in a developing phase. Recon has found an eye on its last pass, albiet with an open eyewall

There is no magic cutoff of 64KT before an eye can form. An eye is defined as a calm area surrounded by at least a 50% eyewall

[seahawkjd]

So Derek, any words on where its going to finally make landfall and how strong?

[Epsilon_Fan]

he's running out of time to make the jump...