Western Caribbean Strangely Quite So Far - How Much Longer?

[gatorcane]

The Western and Northwestern Caribbean have been strangely quite this year. Just a few passing waves but for the most part these areas have seen plenty of sunny skies all hurricane season long. The last thing we saw there of any significance was TS Alberto over 2 months ago. SSTs are boiling and UL conditions have gradually become more favorable for development.

Late Sept and October are the big months for this area also.

My eyes are glued to the Western Caribbean, I really feel we are going to see a major spin up there sooner than later.

Thoughts?

[cinlfla]

LOL gatorcane are you having storm withdrawls? I think we should start to see some development soon, the wave in the central atlantic looks pretty good it just needs some convection.

[Portastorm]

C'mon gatorcane ... we at least need this weekend clear for our rib bbq!!

[LSU2001]

I am by no means expert in tropical weather but I would like to throw something out there. In 2005 we broke the record for total storms and several records for strength of storms. Most of these records were set in the 1933 season. Looking up records of 1934 shows a pretty slow season when compared to the one before (1933) I am not saying that this is a good analog but there just may be something going on that provides a pause after an extremly busy season.

1934 Information : http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-season/hurricane-NOTNAMED-1934-603.php

[gatorcane]

I am by no means expert in tropical weather but I would like to throw something out there. In 2005 we broke the record for total storms and several records for strength of storms. Most of these records were set in the 1933 season. Looking up records of 1934 shows a pretty slow season when compared to the one before (1933) I am not saying that this is a good analog but there just may be something going on that provides a pause after an extremly busy season.

1934 Information : http://www.hurricane.com/hurricane-season/hurricane-NOTNAMED-1934-603.php

Yes, that is a good point, I noticed that too. Maybe we will have a 1934-like season...

As for withdrawals, yes I am, I NEED my hurricanes to track. Until then, I'll just drink lots of beer this weekend and just enjoy the time off

[gtsmith]

I thought, climatilogically (sp?) speaking the Western Carib is the genesis of more storms early in the season, then the Cape Verde genesis takes over from Sept onward. Wilma last year formed north of panama, i thought was more of a fluke. Is this not correct?

[drezee]

Good point...Thanks for the Good news about the W Caribbean

P.S. Thanks for the JINX!!!!!

[gatorcane]

I thought, climatilogically (sp?) speaking the Western Carib is the genesis of more storms early in the season, then the Cape Verde genesis takes over from Sept onward. Wilma last year formed north of panama, i thought was more of a fluke. Is this not correct?

actually no, the Western Caribbean can breed storms just about any time of the season. The spring and late fall are the real prime time months. The Wilma scenario was not a fluke (the CAT 5 part of it maybe) and was quite typical. We saw here get pulled up by an early season front.

[gtsmith]

Ok cool...i dont know why i was under that impression. i just remember not really watching the cape verde area early in the season, mostly the carib basin. prolly because the SSts over the central atlantic haven't warmed enough yet in June and July, historically speaking.

[gatorcane]

Ok cool...i dont know why i was under that impression. i just remember not really watching the cape verde area early in the season, mostly the carib basin. prolly because the SSts over the central atlantic haven't warmed enough yet in June and July, historically speaking.

That and also the shear is too high out that far in the Atlantic until later in the season...

[HurricaneBill]

I think October and November are usually the months when Western Carribean activity is likely.

Oddly enough, after Hurricane Hattie in 1961, no major hurricanes would form in the western Carribean during October and November until Hurricane Roxanne in 1995.

[SunnyFla]

Actually, if you look at the link below, the probability of a Hurricane in the Western Carribean in October is low. Even the probability of a named storm in that region is low for October.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/h_prob_oct.gif

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/ns_prob_oct.gif