Central Atlantic Wave,Midway Between Africa and L Antilles

[Zardoz]

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float2_0.html
I'm seeing some spin in the low level clouds.

Lots of spin showing in this loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-avn.html

[Dean4Storms]

I don't see the turn NW occuring with either low out there. If they delay in organizing they could very well be alot further west in the long run.

[Sanibel]

You can see the forward wave trying to circulate but it is being synoptically sheared by a clearly-defined flat line of negative conditions in the Atlantic. This phenomena continues to dominate with pseudo-spring-like conditions even in prime season.

I could imagine Max is starting to worry that a major prediction bust could be unfolding.

[Anthonyl]

http://files.wtoc.com/weather/trop_sat30min.htm

Watch the above loop, convection starting to fire around the supposed LLC.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI SEP 1 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.


ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

[cycloneye]

Slowly the wave is organizing and invest status may come later today or tonight depending on if it continies to organize.

Sanibel,you can post your thoughts about the wave at this thread.

[Sanibel]

I don't know about it "blooming" up near the islands like I said before. If you look at the little wave up by the northern Lessers it isn't doing that well and looks dried out.

I'd say this one has spin so it will convect upwelling air better from the surface closer to warmer and moister South America.

I'll take a risk and say this is our next Atlantic storm.

[Anthonyl]

Cycloneye,where do you see this feature heading. A strong ridge seems to be parked to it's north.The models indicate a northerly turn before the islands.What's your take?

[cycloneye]

Cycloneye,where do you see this feature heading. A strong ridge seems to be parked to it's north.The models indicate a northerly turn before the islands.What's your take?

I am 50/50 about recurvature of the system.I prefer to wait until it organizes more if it does so and see if that ridge holds thru the next few days to say anything definite about where it may go.

[perk]

Is the northerly turn indicated by the models suppose to be created by the ull to the NNW of the wave.

[cycloneye]

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDER-
STORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N35W 14N36W
11N40W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FOUND FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 40W AND 44W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 11N.


2 PM Discussion.

[Derek Ortt]

I really dont think the wave is organziing at all.

There is a high amount of vorticity in the area, but no really well-defined closed LLC. I played the feature down during the HRD briefing, which I gave today

[Sanibel]

My instinct says 1010 entering Ernesto's breeding gorund will form.

[jhamps10]

well we now have an invest on this wave, looks like I actually made a correct guess for once.

[Sanibel]

If it gets pulled north it might go into the dry air dominating the area.