Blow up E of Bahamas N of PR

[boca]

It looks interesting a little blow up east of the Bahamas with some cyclonic turning.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[tgenius]

If it forms, that would be some homebrew just in time for labor day

[SouthFloridawx]

I believe that is an upper level low.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

[cycloneye]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

boca another of those that haved dominated in 2006 that you know what it is.

[stormernie]

This is a ULL and don't expect development any time soon.

[x-y-no]

I believe that is an upper level low.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

Yes it is ...

But I note that they do analyze some weak vorticity all the way down to 850, and there's upper-level divergence along with a miniscule amount of low-level convergence.

Odds are pretty low for development, but not out of the realm of possibility.

[Patrick99]

Looks like a mid-level circ to me...I don't know, for some reason that looks slightly more suspicious than your everyday ULL.

[boca]

Yeah I look at it now and its a ULL got excited for a second now back to my senses.

[jusforsean]

o.k. here goes my opinion, not like it matters but i see a defenite spin with some convection building in the sw portion, am i way off???????

[x-y-no]

o.k. here goes my opinion, not like it matters but i see a defenite spin with some convection building in the sw portion, am i way off???????

No, you're not off at all. But that spin is in the upper (and possibly down a bit towards the midlle) level.

If you track the movement of the low-level cumulus clouds, you'll see that while there's a bit of a bend there, there's nothing remotely approaching a circulation at that level yet.

But ULLs do sometimes work their way down to the surface and the fact that there appears to be a sharper mid-level signature than surface signature is suggestive of that possibly happening.

As usual, persistence is the key. If this convection keeps going through tomorrow, then we may have something here.

[boca]

This might have a chance to work down to the surface.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

The TUTT is no longer there so the Eastern Caribbean should be more favorable now than a month ago.

[SouthFloridawx]

I have a quick question regarding this Upper Level Low.

Isn't the western side of the ULL most often the subsiding air side causing less convection?

I thought that typically the Eastern side was the most convective.



You can see the ULL fairly well on the CIMSS site.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

There is some vorticity noted also in the 850mb level
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor4.html

Also in the 500mb level.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor2.html

I would be interested to see if this tries to make it to the surface.

Lot's of convection in front of the ULL.

GFS weakens this ULL in front of an approaching trough.

[NFLDART]

Something to watch at least

[SouthFloridawx]

Something to watch at least

We got pleanty to watch.

This area... a dying cold front in a few days... the low entering the caribbean this weekend and invest 98L. Plus whatever else pops up in the coming week.