Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[Siberian Express]

It's definitely getting its act together tonight (tomorrow?).



Looking like a super typhoon again, IMO.

The thermodynamics really aren't there for a repeat of what it was before yesterday. It's past peak, the cloud tops have continued to warm signficantly. It's probably a 3 now, even once the ERC finishes I don't see it going back to Super status unless it stops gaining latitude.

CIMSS loop puts it in perspective, looks "super" to me. What a storm.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... rjava.html

[WindRunner]

Concentric eyewalls present and clearly evident on the 85gig pass.

[Pebbles]

Man this thing loves to do ERC's!

[HurricaneBill]

Man this thing loves to do ERC's!

Almost as much as Frances!

[Ptarmigan]

Typhoon Ioke is one hell of a storm. Katrina did not last that long as a major hurricane.

[CronkPSU]

Typhoon Ioke is one hell of a storm. Katrina did not last that long as a major hurricane.

no storm ever has a cat 4

[Ptarmigan]

Typhoon Ioke is one hell of a storm. Katrina did not last that long as a major hurricane.

no storm ever has a cat 4

Ioke never ceases to amaze me. Katrina was only a Cat. 4+ hurricane for about 24 hours.

[sevenleft]

Typhoon Ioke is one hell of a storm. Katrina did not last that long as a major hurricane.

no storm ever has a cat 4

Ioke never ceases to amaze me. Katrina was only a Cat. 4+ hurricane for about 24 hours.

Yeah, its almost as if it ran into stuff that weakened it. Oh yeah, the southern United States....

[whereverwx]

Ioke's ACE is 32.2 and growing. The total ACE for the Atlantic is 14.7.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

32.2 was only for the central pacific. So is likely only about half of the Ace of this storm.

Also this blows every storm to pieces in strengthen. In length of lasting at that strengthen from last year.

Katrina only about 24 hours as a cat4-about 12 or so hours as a cat5. Ioke most likely had 150 knot winds at peak(Thats my option).

Rita about the same time frame then Katrina...

Wilma yes it was powerful but not as long lasting as Ioke.

Ivan, he had over a 70+ ace in had been a major for one of the lasting times for a Atlantic storm after Allen 1980. This storm comes close but in strength falls short.

Ioke blows them all away....

[superfly]

Huge eye about to pop out

[wxmann_91]

My opinion is that after this ERC it will become annular, and have a huge eye. It might approach or even reach briefly STY status again, but probably won't be as strong as it once was.

Here's to bring back some memories, this was back when advisories when Ioke were first initiated, 0Z Aug 20:

[mtm4319]

Ioke's ACE is about 72 already. I had to estimate intensities of two advisories that don't seem to be on either the Unisys page or the Weather Underground page, but with that I got 72.535 through the 9/2 00Z advisory.

I'm not sure what the highest ACE ever is, but here's what Wikipedia says for the Atlantic:

The highest ever ACE estimated for a single storm in the Atlantic is 73.6, for Hurricane San Ciriaco in 1899. This single storm had an ACE higher than many whole Atlantic storm seasons.

If the intensity forecast holds, the ACE would soar to near 95 through 120 hrs.

[wxmann_91]

Imagine if the ACE exceeded above 100! That would be absolutely crazy.

[mtm4319]

For those wondering, my calculation of Hurricane/Typhoon John (1994)'s ACE is 70.6425 (based on the best track intensities found here, here, and here).

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I thought remembering Ivan had something like a 70 or 72 ace?

[mtm4319]

I thought remembering Ivan had something like a 70 or 72 ace?

It was 70.4.

[ArizonaBay]

Just curious, I know this was from many posts-ago, but didnt anyone else find it "odd" that the following story is found all over the web, but without the paragraph regarding the french meteorologist and that the Associated Press used the term "Pro Met"?????? Funny, I only see that term used in chat rooms like this, not in Associated Press stories. And why is there no other information on the web when you type in this "french meteorologist's" name, or for that matter, try googling anything about someone staying on Wake Island during this storm, and the only match was for this particular post ........ very odd..........
Pacific island evacuated ahead of storm
© 2006 The Associated Press

HONOLULU — The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, though French hurricane meteorologist Thomas Cavanaugh decided to stay on the tiny island for the purpose "of research and the common human trait of curiosity." The 72-year-old pro met

[WxGuy1]

And by very odd you mean faked?

I started getting suspicious when I realized that I haven't heard anything about a 'french meteorologist' from anywhere other than this thread. I 'passed along' this information to another board and to my blog, but included a disclaimer that this was at least 2nd-hand information. A ton of websites have that AP article (such as THIS ONE), but, as you noted, there is no mention of the infamous (and imaginary?) french "pro met".

[ArizonaBay]

LOL - no, I mean ODD. Its frustrating when you see a post like that... then find nothing else on the subject at all after a 2 hour search. Its frustrating enough that there is no damage report, and no new news. I would still bet you $ that the Associated Press would never put "Pro Met" in a news story, not only would it leave some readers wondering what it meant, its not "proper". Anyway, just an observation.