Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#101 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:55 am

SouthFloridawx wrote:
HenkL wrote:It's 99L.INVEST now on the nrlmry site.


Post it up there...


I changed the title.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#102 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:58 am

Image
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#103 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:59 am

Have any models run on this invest yet?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 38
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:
Contact HURAKAN

#104 Postby HURAKAN » Sat Sep 02, 2006 7:59 am

HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#105 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:00 am

This is system is way more interesting than 98L..which will be a fish
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#106 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:00 am

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060902 1200 060903 0000 060903 1200 060904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.5N 60.5W 15.6N 62.6W 15.5N 64.7W 15.4N 67.0W
BAMM 15.5N 60.5W 15.4N 63.0W 15.4N 65.8W 15.4N 68.4W
A98E 15.5N 60.5W 15.6N 63.1W 15.9N 65.7W 16.4N 68.1W
LBAR 15.5N 60.5W 15.7N 62.9W 15.8N 65.3W 15.9N 67.7W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 35KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060904 1200 060905 1200 060906 1200 060907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.4N 69.5W 15.9N 75.0W 16.8N 80.4W 17.7N 84.0W
BAMM 15.6N 71.2W 16.4N 76.8W 17.2N 81.7W 17.9N 85.4W
A98E 16.7N 70.6W 18.6N 75.5W 20.4N 79.9W 23.3N 82.7W
LBAR 15.9N 70.3W 16.5N 75.3W 17.5N 79.3W 17.9N 81.6W
SHIP 49KTS 63KTS 72KTS 78KTS
DSHP 49KTS 63KTS 72KTS 78KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.5N LONCUR = 60.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.5N LONM12 = 57.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 15.5N LONM24 = 54.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 20NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$


0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rnbaida

#107 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:01 am

ships has it at 30mph winds speeds right now.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#108 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:04 am

it a very small and still disorganized system.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#109 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:04 am

HURAKAN wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!


Alright I'll give that one, so what's the next POOF or TD. IF the UPPER level winds do become more favorable as SFWX says, it will probably crank up pretty quick.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#110 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:05 am

tailgater wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:
HURAKAN wrote:This system should be 99L already.


They heard me immediately I wrote the statament above!!!!!


Alright I'll give that one, so what's the next POOF or TD. IF the UPPER level winds do become more favorable as SFWX says, it will probably crank up pretty quick.
Right now it is having trouble doing anythign becuase of all the dry air on every side of it.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#111 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:06 am

What is the shear forecast like around this system?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
SouthFloridawx
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8346
Age: 46
Joined: Tue Jul 26, 2005 1:16 am
Location: Sarasota, FL
Contact:
Contact SouthFloridawx

#112 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:06 am

rnbaida wrote:What is the shear forecast like around this system?

I posted it on the previous page.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 146154
Age: 69
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#113 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:07 am

Image

First models graphic for 99L.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
rnbaida

#114 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:08 am

:uarrow: Those models are highly inaccurate.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#115 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

Once the GFDL runs, i think we should have a "feel" on where the invest wil go and if there will be any development.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
tailgater
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3339
Joined: Sun Jul 11, 2004 9:13 pm
Location: St. Amant La.

#116 Postby tailgater » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

rnbaida wrote:it a very small and still disorganized system.


Small yes, but it's shown a fairly well developed LLC(naked) for the last 2 or 3 days, but I'd agree convection is dis organized ATT.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#117 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:09 am

ImageLatest visible shot on the invest.
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#118 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:11 am

Do you think they can schedule a recon?
0 likes   
Top
rnbaida

#119 Postby rnbaida » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:22 am

Image There is 20-30kt shear ahead of this system...
0 likes   
Top
HurricaneHunter914
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4439
Age: 31
Joined: Fri Mar 10, 2006 7:36 pm
Location: College Station, TX

#120 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Sat Sep 02, 2006 8:30 am

2006 definitly looks like an El Nino year.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 33 guests