Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html



Radar from Martinique.Is not the best quality one,but we at least can see what is going on under the clouds.

[O Town]

Finally, they made this an invest. Been watching it for a few days but looked much better last night and today. Question is will the shear relax as forecasted?

[Thunder44]

Rainbow image with 12z inital plot:



Visible image:

[Aquawind]

If this thing develops before getting into the western Caribbean lookout..it will be a certified freak. Already showing freakism signs with the convection developing in that dry environment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[Bane]

the shear will not be kind to it.

[rnbaida]

the shear will not be kind to it.

the shear is forecast to become low....

[Brent]

Looks pretty nice.

[rnbaida]

nice convection blow-ups

[Derek Ortt]

shear was also forecast to drop with Ernesto

A model shear forecast is the 2nd most useless met forecast, only behind the 384 hour GFS forecast

[Hyperstorm]

OK folks, I think it's time to deviate our attention elsewhere. This system that is moving into the Caribbean has almost no chance of developing.

Over the past few days, the system has been been under marginally favorable upper-level conditions, however the subsidence surrounding it made sure it didn't develop. Believe it or not, if it didn't make a run at developing under those relatively "better" conditions, it won't make it in the Caribbean. Why?

Destructive upper-level winds coming straight from the west and southwest.

Model forecasts indicate that the huge trough that covers the entire western Atlantic and Caribbean will remain there and VERY slowly weaken and/or move westward. VERY slowly. The tropical low pressure system entering the Caribbean has a pretty good clip of movement, so all indications are that the very small low pressure system won't survive the extremely hostile environment awaiting it.

As this unfolds, watch for the low pressure to fizzle and the wave to weaken over the next 24-48 hours.

Time to look to the east...

[rnbaida]

shear was also forecast to drop with Ernesto

A model shear forecast is the 2nd most useless met forecast, only behind the 384 hour GFS forecast

so you think that this invest is nothing to watch??? What are your thoughts?

[rnbaida]

OK folks, I think it's time to deviate our attention elsewhere. This system that is moving into the Caribbean has almost no chance of developing.

Over the past few days, the system has been been under marginally favorable upper-level conditions, however the subsidence surrounding it made sure it didn't develop. Believe it or not, if it didn't make a run at developing under those relatively "better" conditions, it won't make it in the Caribbean. Why?

Destructive upper-level winds coming straight from the west and southwest.

Model forecasts indicate that the huge trough that covers the entire western Atlantic and Caribbean will remain there and VERY slowly weaken and/or move westward. VERY slowly. The tropical low pressure system entering the Caribbean has a pretty good clip of movement, so all indications are that the very small low pressure system won't survive the extremely hostile environment awaiting it.

As this unfolds, watch for the low pressure to fizzle and the wave to weaken over the next 24-48 hours.

Time to look to the east...

that could be the case...

[Sanibel]

Good example of 2006 Atlantic waves not convecting before the islands.

Looks like a spinner to me. 98L too.


I disagree with Hyperstorm. I think the prime season will erode what he thinks are permanent destructive features.

[Hyperstorm]

shear was also forecast to drop with Ernesto

A model shear forecast is the 2nd most useless met forecast, only behind the 384 hour GFS forecast

Derek Ortt...

I completely agree. There is a MUCH higher probability of a model being wrong when forecasting favorable winds than when forecasting a destructive atmosphere.

[Thunder44]

I don't know why this was made an invest now. It should of been an invest days ago when an LLC was more evident. It's looks more disorganized this morning, and the flare-up thunderstorms are only being caused by the diverengent flow aloft with the interaction of the ULL to the NW. This has very little chance of development in my opinion.

[El Nino]

If it's initialized at 25 kts, is there a RECON prepare to investigate this system, now that's in the Caribean ?

[Nimbus]

Shear does tend to initially enhance convection. Maybe by the time this area gets near Jamaica the upper low will have lifted out. What lat lon are people starting to see the turning?

[Aquawind]

When it was mostly naked a possible LLC was more evident but with some convection it's hard to say for sure. It does not look any better than the last couple days other than some convection..the LLs don't show little if any convergence. But in less shear and more WV it will be a looker if it doesn't open up and poof in the central and eastern Caribbean.

[x-y-no]

Looking at the WV loop, the trough is retrogressing, but not as fast as the wave is advancing.

This looks likely to be too heavily sheared to develop for the next day at least. If it's still somewhat hanging together at that point and it hasn't gained latitude (buying it a little room as the ULL will be backing off somewhat north of west probably) then it'll be time to reassess it.

[Trugunzn]

I actually think this may have a good chance of developement. The trough is expected to weaken and move west. Also it looks like Dry air shouldnt be a problem when it arrives in the Caribbean.