Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[cycloneye]

NOUS42 KNHC 021500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SAT 02 SEP 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z SEP 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
A. 03/2100Z
B. 01HHA INVEST
C. 03/1545Z
D. 16.0N 067.0W
E. 03/2000Z TO 04/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12 HOURLY FIXES NEAR
16.5N 72.5W AT 04/1800Z IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.

I see that NHC has some interest in the system as they are planning a mission for tommorow afternoon if needed.

[El Nino]

If system develops.

What do they need as development to investigate this system ?

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 021513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...OVER MARYLAND.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...NEAR
MARTINIQUE...IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND SURFACE PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME ONLY SLIGHTLY MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY AT ALL.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[ammmyjjjj]

FYI

Here is a nice loop showing full view of Atlantic

http://www.intellicast.com/IcastPage/Lo ... odnav=none

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here is what Jeff Master's thinks:

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200609

[Zardoz]

Here is what Jeff Masters thinks:

A strong new tropical wave is emerging from the coast of Africa today near the Cape Verde Islands. Some of the computer models continue to develop this wave into a tropical storm or hurricane by the middle of next week.

Which of these three waves should most concern us? Both the wave coming off Africa today and the one in the middle of the Atlantic--98L--will probably end up recurving out to sea. However, 99L is already in the Caribbean and is forecast to enter a low shear environment, so this is the one to be most concerned with.

Let's see if he's right.

[rnbaida]

shouldnt the GFDL Run this invest now??

[rnbaida]

[SWFLA_CANE]

Looks like most models take it into Mexico, I guess Fla and N.C. should watch out.

[rnbaida]

models took ernesto into mexico too.. then we saw the big jump north into cuba and haiti.....

[rnbaida]

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/archive/model/AL992006mlts.gif?122505999 GFDL takes the system south?

[Zardoz]

It's tough to make out, but are we seeing some increasing lower level circulation?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html

[Trugunzn]

Looks like most models take it into Mexico, I guess Fla and N.C. should watch out.

lol Well I define learn a lot from Ernesto and how quickly things change

[rnbaida]

The gfdl just ran and takes the sytem south into south america...how funny is that

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, Jeff Masters says the central Atlantic wave and the one coming off the African coast will probably recuve out to sea, but that the one in the eastern Carib is the one to watch and could be a depression by Monday in a low shear environment.


That's interesting, I didn't think the central atlantic wave would recurve. I wonder what would cause the recurve, but I guess I better talk about that in the other thread...

[rnbaida]

THE GFDL Doesnt develop this system at all during its first run.... Lets see what happens when it runs again at around 8-9pm....

[ConvergenceZone]

The gfdl just ran and takes the sytem south into south america...how funny is that

yea, it will probably pull an Ernesto and the models will go more north with time. Models always have a difficult time with invests. It's only after they become depressions do they settle down and get a better grasp on the storms. As always, the quicker the storm develops, the further north it will probably go.

[WeatherEmperor]

Is it just me or is this system about to run into some massive windshear?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

<RICKY>

[rnbaida]

Is it just me or is this system about to run into some massive windshear?

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html

<RICKY>

it is but it is also forecast to weaken....

[WeatherEmperor]

Its forecast to weaken? Oh I didnt notice that. Do you have any shear forecast maps that I can look at? Thanx

<RICKY>