Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[wxman57]

Look for the next model runs to be shifted eastward for 98L. And watch for 90L in the eastern Atlantic near 12-13N/23W. That's the most impressive disturbance in the Atlantic Basin today.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We don't have 90L yet wxmann

[Meso]

Yeah,I believe he is saying watch for that disturbance to be assigned 90l soon

[msbee]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

you see? it is this sort of comment that is regularly turning me off to this board.
There are a certain amount of posters that only get thrilled when something is coming towards someone.
.
We all claim to be weather enthusiasts.
So we should be watching these systems to see what they do. Each one is different and each one has different weather phenomenon attached to it.
we can learn from everything that happens this time of year.. even if something is a fish....
It shouldn't have to be a severe threat to someone in order to turn us on.

Barbara

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 021513
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...OVER MARYLAND.

A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
CENTERED HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS MOVING
SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Derek Ortt]

thank you, Msbee

we do not need systems hitting land. A system destroying everything is not interesting, IT IS TRAGIC. Comments wanting death and destruction are also turning me off as well, especially when they come from teenagers who have never experienced a real hurricane. I have, twice, and let me tell you, its hell that I would only wish upon people like Bin Laden

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

This graphic from the NHC shows two possible low pressure systems in the next 3 days. The first on I beleive is 98L and the one behind it is soon to be 90L.

[sunny]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

you see? it is this sort of comment that is regularly turning me off to this board.
There are a certain amount of posters that only get thrilled when something is coming towards someone.
.
We all claim to be weather enthusiasts.
So we should be watching these systems to see what they do. Each one is different and each one has different weather phenomenon attached to it.
we can learn from everything that happens this time of year.. even if something is a fish....
It shouldn't have to be a severe threat to someone in order to turn us on.

Barbara

Good post Barbara!

[senorpepr]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

you see? it is this sort of comment that is regularly turning me off to this board.
There are a certain amount of posters that only get thrilled when something is coming towards someone.
.
We all claim to be weather enthusiasts.
So we should be watching these systems to see what they do. Each one is different and each one has different weather phenomenon attached to it.
we can learn from everything that happens this time of year.. even if something is a fish....
It shouldn't have to be a severe threat to someone in order to turn us on.

Barbara

I also echo your comments. Thank you for making this post. It's really sad to see so many sick-minded individuals who "WAHOO!!!" everytime a storm approaches land, especially if it's strengthening.

[cycloneye]

Why would someone want to watch a system that is going to be a fish and affect NOBODY??? Isn't that boring?? I'm not saying I want it to come and destroy everything and cause deaths but It would be a lot more interesting than watching a system that will eventually turn north and dissipate...99L has a chance of getting deep into the Caribbean and might get close to the north Caribbean...It's a wait and see issue.

you see? it is this sort of comment that is regularly turning me off to this board.
There are a certain amount of posters that only get thrilled when something is coming towards someone.
.
We all claim to be weather enthusiasts.
So we should be watching these systems to see what they do. Each one is different and each one has different weather phenomenon attached to it.
we can learn from everything that happens this time of year.. even if something is a fish....
It shouldn't have to be a severe threat to someone in order to turn us on.

Barbara

I also agree with your sentiment.

[BatzVI]

Hurricane Hunter....thanks for that graphic....I'm not like where they have the first wave (98L) going...follow that line and it's very close to us.....hopefully, it won't follow that prediction....

[x-y-no]

99L looks better...

Better than what? Looks much worse than yesterday. MLC no longer evident. I don't think that the models are focused on the correct area. That part around 39W is diminishing and/or being ripped apart. The place to watch is farther east, near 11N/35-36W.

Yes, I think that's clear. Looking in at Jeff Masters' blog just now I notice he makes the same point.


I wonder if it doesn't risk being caught from behind by that strong SAL outbreak to its NE ...

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/vis-l.jpg

98L has a very nice circulation.

[Frank2]

...I regret having hurt a few feelings two weeks ago, when I made a similar comment about some here who seem to desire a hurricane strike, but, as some here have mentioned today, it's because these folks either live outside the danger zone, and/or, have never suffered the effects of a disasterous Category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane.

As my Dad used to say on similar topics - that's something I wouldn't even wish on my enemies...

All one has to do is watch The Weather Channel episode of Storm Stories entitled "Semester at Sea", to see what even a non-tropical storm can do to a large ship, that was caught in a storm that contained hurricane force winds. Unlike some theme-park ride that gives a big thrill, but are over in seconds or minutes, in a storm at sea, or during a violent hurricane in a coastal community, a person cannot stop the action by getting off - even if they do not like what's happening. As with the students at sea, hearing them scream, while getting thrown from one side of the room to another, was very intimidating, even to see it on television - they suffered like that, moment by moment, for almost 2 agonizing days....

THAT is what any form of violent weather is about - it might be beautiful from a distance, but, it's deadly serious when it's overhead...

Frank

[windnrain]

If a hurricane is about to hit my area, I do feel a bit of excitement. Honestly, no matter where a hurricane hits, I feel a little excitement... why? Because it is a chance to witness the power of nature firsthand. Storms that go out to sea, you can only stare at them on a satelite, but storms that make landfall... you attatch face, pictures, sounds to the surreality of staring at radar images and satelite images. Sometimes, it's nice to see the weather up close and personal... it's no different than those that chase tornadoes for the thrill, hoping that one forms so that they can get a rush from watching it. The best thing I can compare it to, is that nowhere else in life, can you watch something be born, live, have it's problems and have its successes, and die in all of it's beauty, within the span of a week or two. Oh, and don't give me any bs. I stayed for Katrina, an hour and a half SOUTH of New Orleans. My money's where my mouth is.

[Derek Ortt]

those wanting a cane

Please do not speak for everyone, as you do not. Please only speak for yourselves

As for the disturbance, the trailing one is becoming better organized this afternoon. I'd give it about a 30-40% chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next 36 hours (which is about 4 times greater than the climatological percentage)

[Bailey1777]

windnrain tell that to those who died. I'm sure they enjoyed it too. Go away please!

[wxmann_91]

Guys what's this arguing about. People have their own opinions and I don't see why they have to be bashed about it.

Anyhow I do believe we will see a system out of either 98L or the wave behind it.

[Thunder44]

This we want/we don't want hurricane debate is getting old. And we just need to talk about 98L as that is what this thread is for.

Since the system is developing further east around 35W this afternoon, it has little better chance now of connecting with UL over the North-Central Atlantic, recurving it out to sea. However I still don't much movement southward of ULL, so I think a more westerly course is still a possibility.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.0 39.1 270./11.1
6 11.4 39.4 328./ 4.1
12 11.7 39.5 334./ 3.9
18 12.6 39.9 336./10.0
24 13.0 40.7 294./ 8.5
30 13.7 40.9 348./ 6.9
36 14.7 41.0 350./10.7
42 15.8 41.8 326./12.9
48 16.8 42.7 320./13.3
54 17.6 43.5 310./11.2
60 18.4 44.0 329./ 9.8
66 19.2 44.7 320./10.0
72 20.3 45.2 335./11.4
78 21.1 45.8 324./10.4
84 22.0 46.4 326./10.3
90 22.6 47.1 314./ 9.2
96 23.3 47.5 331./ 7.4
102 24.0 47.8 331./ 7.6
108 24.6 48.5 312./ 9.2
114 25.0 49.5 293./ 9.9
120 25.4 50.5 288./ 8.8
126 25.5 51.2 282./ 7.1



12z GFDL doesn't start at the proper place as the more organizing area is more east.