Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Trugunzn]

Same thing happened to Ernesto if it doesnt speed up Shear shouldnt affect it much. Trough is expected to weaken and move west.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Remember from Ernesto that the Bam bros are totally worthless models and were showing mexico until very late. GFDL is probably losing the system and picking up some small vortex taking into south america. The TWO looks an aweful lot like just before Chris where the NHC doesnt expect formation due to UL winds. If the system develops, I wouldnt be surprised if it is forecasted to dissipate in the first advisory.

[SouthFloridawx]

The weird thing is that GFS forecast in 24 hours shows not much Upper Level Shear in 24 hours from now. There is some easterly shear on the Southern side but, for the most part not too bad.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
300mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
250mb

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif
200mb

A good look at the Upper Level low being forecasted to weaken and move west in front of the system.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

This is the same kind of scenario as with Ernesto.

[Extremeweatherguy]

models took ernesto into mexico too.. then we saw the big jump north into cuba and haiti.....

you can't base every system on Ernesto though. Ernesto was a rare event. Yes, there is usually a model error at 5 days, but it is very rare that there is an error like Ernesto's.

[hawkeh]

It's beginning to seem like every single storm people say is a "rare" event. What is normal then?

[Grease Monkey]

It's beginning to seem like every single storm people say is a "rare" event. What is normal then?

It seems like that lately.

[GeneratorPower]

Normal is simply the average behavior of all the rare events. No storm is actually average

[Derek Ortt]

Everyone,

Are we not all forgetting that shear forecasts are basically useless forecasts? They are only slightly more accurate than is the GFS 384 hour forecast. The models almost always weaken the shear over anything remotely appearing as if it will develop, yet the shear almost always lasts longer than the models are suggesting. The models had a perfect upper air environment for Ernesto, even though a UL was practically on top of it

I would not base anything on a shear forecast

[Bailey1777]

Derek,

What do they use in the first place to determine shear? Satellite interpetation?

[rnbaida]

great agreement with all the models....haha

[SouthFloridawx]

Everyone,
Are we not all forgetting that shear forecasts are basically useless forecasts? They are only slightly more accurate than is the GFS 384 hour forecast. The models almost always weaken the shear over anything remotely appearing as if it will develop, yet the shear almost always lasts longer than the models are suggesting. The models had a perfect upper air environment for Ernesto, even though a UL was practically on top of it
I would not base anything on a shear forecast

So are you saying that Upper Level wind forecasts are not accurate at all? If you are saying this what is the point of running them?

What do you base your Upper Level wind projections from?

[Derek Ortt]

wind shear forecasts are terrible. Too much emphasis is placed on them

One can determine the shear by judging the synoptics fairly well. Like with Ernesto, it was obvious that it would encounter shear, even when the models said the shear would be 0

[Nimbus]

Interesting day both the main convection and the model runs shifted south toward a Mex\Tex track. I highly doubt that this will be an open wave by the time it reaches the western Caribbean even with the 2006 luck we had so far.

Still kind of dry and some shear is the norm according to climo.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Interesting day both the main convection and the model runs shifted south toward a Mex\Tex track. I highly doubt that this will be an open wave by the time it reaches the western Caribbean even with the 2006 luck we had so far.

Still kind of dry and some shear is the norm according to climo.

yeah, being September, I think this one needs to be watched closely...especially once it reaches the western Caribbean. Sooner or later this 2006 luck is going to run out (probably when we least expect it too).

[Trugunzn]

[hial2]

Well,if it means anything, the ULL over Cuba has been moving WNW since this AM...@ 5 dgrees or so.....

[Sanibel]

After Chris and many others no one wants to be the first to jump in and say "This will form!" But indeed it is showing signs of potential cyclogenesis.

2006 will either impress us with another false alarm bust or spin this one better than Ernesto. We'll see.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't see anything to say that this will form at all...Really looking at the visible, I see that the low to mid level wave 850 or so millibars give or take...Northern end is at 62-63 west at 15. In its not strong at all. This is not even a sharp tropical wave. Forming at 12 north/60 west or so where you see that big blow up of convection maybe a weak MLC at most. Most of the winds blowing through that area is eastly...This is a very weak tropical wave with a MLC around the area of blow up. I would watch 98L which looks to have a real LLC. In keep a half a eye open on this.

[Sanibel]

I would agree with that Matt, except 2006 seems to be drying up waves until they flesh out in the Caribbean. It's not easy to tell what will form or not, but this one is doing the Caribbean surprise thing Ernesto and Chris did.

[ConvergenceZone]

Both waves are now losing convection fast. Man, what a frustrating year. I expect something like this in June or July, but not in September...4 more weeks to watch, and then we'll have to see if the season will also end early like it sometimes has before.

unbelievable......