Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 021800UTC 24.5N 155.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 130NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 031800UTC 26.6N 150.5E 80NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
48HF 041800UTC 29.2N 147.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
72HF 051800UTC 32.9N 144.7E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT

[senorpepr]

Lookslike he's about to hit another small island, which island is it?

You mean she.

Ioke (ee-OH-kay) is Hawaiian for Joyce.

[WindRunner]

Check out the huge eye getting ready to clear:



Looks like it'll be almost 2° wide =~120 miles! Of course we can't say for sure until it does pop out on vis, but the 85GHz is a good indicator.

[oceancounty]

I feel bad for any islands that may be in the way of Ioke. This thing may just eat them up. Is there any news on Wake Island at all? I know that there are no reports coming from their station as of 8/31.

[theworld]

Nice shot of Eye....
LINK

[theworld]

I feel bad for any islands that may be in the way of Ioke. This thing may just eat them up. Is there any news on Wake Island at all? I know that there are no reports coming from their station as of 8/31.

Nothing yet, but here is a good article on the evac w/pics.
http://starbulletin.com/2006/08/29/news/story01.html

[TampaSteve]

Pacific island evacuated ahead of storm
© 2006 The Associated Press

HONOLULU — The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, though French hurricane meteorologist Thomas Cavanaugh decided to stay on the tiny island for the purpose "of research and the common human trait of curiosity." The 72-year-old pro met has been through severe storms before, namely in Guam and Taiwan. His current location is a 24 ft concrete structure built after WW2, where Cavanaugh will conduct his research.

Ioke had winds of 160 mph and gusts up to 185 mph on Monday, Powell said. The storm was 560 miles southeast of Wake Island and on track for a direct hit, according to the forecast.

Wake Island is 2,300 miles west of Honolulu and 1,510 miles east of Guam. The storm is expected to strike at 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, or noon Thursday on the island.

___

Leejet,

I have read that very same AP article on several different websites, and none of them include the text you have in bold in your post. Why do you feel the need to post such patently bogus information???

[P.K.]

[theworld]

Pacific island evacuated ahead of storm
© 2006 The Associated Press

HONOLULU — The military evacuated 200 people from Wake Island on Monday before the arrival of Typhoon Ioke, the strongest Central Pacific hurricane in more than decade.

Classified as a Category 5 "super typhoon," Ioke is expected to extensively damage the U.S. territory when it hits Wednesday with 155-mph winds, said Jeff Powell, lead forecaster for the National Weather Service in Honolulu.

"This is going to roll up a storm surge that will probably submerge the island and destroy everything that's not made of concrete," Powell said.

The evacuees, mostly American and Thai contractors, were flown to Hickam Air Force Base on the Hawaiian island of Oahu, said Maj. Clare Reed, a spokeswoman for the 15th Airlift Wing.

The contractors work at a civilian base, Reed said. No other permanent residents live on the tiny island, though French hurricane meteorologist Thomas Cavanaugh decided to stay on the tiny island for the purpose "of research and the common human trait of curiosity." The 72-year-old pro met has been through severe storms before, namely in Guam and Taiwan. His current location is a 24 ft concrete structure built after WW2, where Cavanaugh will conduct his research.

Ioke had winds of 160 mph and gusts up to 185 mph on Monday, Powell said. The storm was 560 miles southeast of Wake Island and on track for a direct hit, according to the forecast.

Wake Island is 2,300 miles west of Honolulu and 1,510 miles east of Guam. The storm is expected to strike at 8 p.m. EDT on Wednesday, or noon Thursday on the island.

___

Leejet,

I have read that very same AP article on several different websites, and none of them include the text you have in bold in your post. Why do you feel the need to post such patently bogus information???

Here is the link to the original AP story off the AP official site. Obviously the above was forged.

http://associatedpress.com/ and type Ioke on 7 day search....

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/W/ ... TE=DEFAULT

[wxmann_91]

For those who are anti-JTWC, a look at the archived forecast maps actually reveals that JTWC has been spot-on with Ioke. Same though cannot be said with CPHC.

BTW, the waters there can still support a Cat 5, however just a few degrees latitude to the north, it can only support a 2-3. It needs to finish that ERC and fast.

[WindRunner]

OK, vis images are supposed to be streaming into NRL by now, but I'm getting nothing, and the most recent IR they are showing is from 1830Z - i.e. 4 hours old. Is this a caching problem of my own or is it their problem?

[P.K.]

No new images here either. Have a look at http://www.jma.go.jp/en/gms/large.html?area=3&element=1&mode=UTC .

[wxmann_91]

That's a good link. Did anybody archive images before 2230Z 1 Sept 06?

[Audrey2Katrina]

That thing is a MONSTER, and forgive me if it offends; but may God protect any and all in its wake... no pun intended.

A2K

[WindRunner]

That's a good link. Did anybody archive images before 2230Z 1 Sept 06?

I have NRL back to the declaration of 91C on 8/18.

Oh wait, I just realized you meant of the MTSAT-1R images. BOM has an archive of the GMS images, which contains all images from GMS back to May 2003, including full-disk and quarter disk it appears. Use option 2 here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/sat/archive_new/gms/

Problem is the images are 320x486 and the hi-res versions require $.

[wxmann_91]

That's a good link. Did anybody archive images before 2230Z 1 Sept 06?

I have NRL back to the declaration of 91C on 8/18.

Oh wait, I just realized you meant of the MTSAT-1R images. BOM has an archive of the GMS images, which contains all images from GMS back to May 2003, including full-disk and quarter disk it appears. Use option 2 here:

http://www.bom.gov.au/sat/archive_new/gms/

Problem is the images are 320x486 and the hi-res versions require $.

Thanks for the link, but I was refering to archived images from P.K.'s link.

I have archives from all the way back to Aug. 19, but the sats from P.K's link were pretty cool and I was just wondering if there was a website for those archives.

[P.K.]

Every 3 hours but not as high res as the ones on the JMA page. http://www.sat.dundee.ac.uk/abin/geobrowse/MTSAT/

[WindRunner]

Yeah, I figured you were, but that was the best I could find quickly . . . didn't think of looking at the Dundee page, though, another good find P.K.

[P.K.]

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 030900UTC 26.1N 152.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 040900UTC 28.8N 147.7E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
45HF 050600UTC 32.2N 145.2E 150NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
69HF 060600UTC 37.7N 147.2E 290NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT

[WindRunner]

Looks like Ioke is having some serious moisture problems on WV: