Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[x-y-no]

Both waves are now losing convection fast. Man, what a frustrating year. I expect something like this in June or July, but not in September...4 more weeks to watch, and then we'll have to see if the season will also end early like it sometimes has before.

unbelievable......

I wouldn't write this wave off by any means. In fact, the more southerly course it appears to be taking will keep it further clear of that trough.

I expect it to flare up again tonight.

[cpdaman]

i was thinking the same thing

the southerly route will take it through an area of less shear so it will need to be watched at least as close if not even more now due the shift in track

[SouthFloridawx]

Both waves are now losing convection fast. Man, what a frustrating year. I expect something like this in June or July, but not in September...4 more weeks to watch, and then we'll have to see if the season will also end early like it sometimes has before.

unbelievable......

I wouldn't write this wave off by any means. In fact, the more southerly course it appears to be taking will keep it further clear of that trough.

I expect it to flare up again tonight.

Also 18Z GFS reduces the Upper Level winds that are currently shearing this one.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_018l.gif

I agree with x-y-no. This one should not be written off at all.

[Trugunzn]

Doesnt looks to bad, nice outflow starting:

[wxmann_91]

Sign of shear, not outflow. I am not optimistic about this developing.

[Dean4Storms]

I definitely see a MLC near 14n 64w moving almost due west. Hard to tell with all the cirrus if it has any surface rotation.

On closer inspection maybe more like 63w

[Trugunzn]

Doesnt look like shear is affecting it much, maybe a little, shear should be at most today and suppose to move west and weaken. I think it has a very good chance

[x-y-no]

Sign of shear, not outflow. I am not optimistic about this developing.

It still has some southwesterly shear, but about 10 knots less than it did this morning. And the fact it's heading a little south of due west gives the trough more time to retreat ahead of it.

At the moment, I think lack of low-level convergence is the bigger issue, and a sustained convection (if it can get one of those going during the diurnal max) could cure that.

[Sanibel]

Serious diurnal minimum.

We'll see if this is another Chris or real former.

Structure looks good right now if it re-fires.


Board should be busy. If these flesh out they are real news.

[ROCK]

Serious diurnal minimum.

We'll see if this is another Chris or real former.

Structure looks good right now if it re-fires.


Board should be busy. If these flesh out they are real news.

refiring attm.....lets see if it holds it with the shear to its north....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[SouthFloridawx]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

We have some decreasing shear in the Southeast Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

A little sparse on convection to call a second Ernesto just yet.

Need to see a substantial burst before calling this one a go.

[SouthFloridawx]

602
ABNT20 KNHC 030234
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Zardoz]

Is the shear starting to break up a little?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-ir2.html

[Meso]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 030925
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

[rnbaida]

what time does the recon get there?

[Sanibel]

There's a small spin to this on a low track.

[rnbaida]

Recon has been cancelled...

[Brent]

11:30am TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM.

My full attention is on 90L.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From Jeff Master's morning post:

Lesser Antilles tropical wave
A small tropical wave surrounded by a cloud of African dust is moving through the eastern Caribbean this morning. This wave, which NHC has designated "Invest 99L", is tracking west at 15 mph and has a small area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it. A large upper trough of low pressure over Cuba and Hispaniola that is creating about 10-20 knots of shear over 99L, preventing significant development. The trough is expected to weaken and move west over the next few days, potentially creating a low shear environment over most of the Caribbean. This could allow intensification of 99L into a tropical depression by Tuesday at the earliest. NHC has not run any preliminary models for this storm since yesterday.