Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SAT SEP 2 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC IS
ISSUING ADVISORIES ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...OVER MARYLAND.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
NOW OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
IS CURRENTLY POORLY ORGANIZED...AND DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD
BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT
1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 10
MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

A NEW AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 750 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM SHOWS SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[ConvergenceZone]

some dark reds starting to fire within the convection within the past hour.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[cycloneye]

178
WHXX04 KWBC 022331
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 40.0 270./ 8.9
6 11.5 39.6 30./ 7.7
12 12.1 39.6 2./ 6.1
18 12.9 39.8 344./ 8.6
24 13.8 40.3 331./10.1
30 15.0 40.9 333./13.4
36 16.0 41.9 316./13.4
42 16.9 43.1 306./14.8
48 17.4 44.1 300./10.8
54 18.2 44.7 321./10.2
60 19.1 45.5 321./11.4
66 19.8 46.4 307./11.0
72 20.6 46.7 335./ 8.0
78 21.7 47.2 337./12.3
84 22.3 48.4 296./12.1
90 22.8 49.1 307./ 9.1
96 23.4 50.1 299./10.9
102 23.9 51.1 298./10.1
108 24.4 52.6 289./14.6
114 24.9 53.8 289./12.2
120 25.3 55.0 288./11.6
126 25.7 56.1 292./10.4

[rnbaida]

WOW!!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[JonathanBelles]

what is that one to the northeast of 90L

[Trugunzn]

WOW!!!

shifted farthur west then last run

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 11.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 98L

Uh Invest 98L on 11.2N 35.6W???

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

That GFDL model run alongside the Canadian as well as the Euro are all pointing to something that is less than desired along the US east coast with the turn west. Meanwhile, the GFS builds up 3 cyclones: one approaching the Bahamas moving west, the one the Euro, GFDL, and Canadian are showing (also turning WEST along 20N and deep) and a new storm brewing off Afrika! Any sign of something upstream that may turn these puppies out to sea beyond 6 days?? We sure could use a trough!!

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 11.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 98L

Uh Invest 98L on 11.2N 35.6W???

Now its ok..but they place both at the same position...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 11.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Trugunzn]

nvm

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 11.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 98L

Uh Invest 98L on 11.2N 35.6W???

Now its ok..but they place both at the same position...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
02/2345 UTC 11.2N 35.6W TOO WEAK 90L -- Atlantic Ocean

They are confused about these two systems almost joint one to another.

[Trugunzn]

note the westward turn:

[SouthFloridawx]

98L firing up once again this evening.

[JonathanBelles]

lookin' good

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

note the westward turn:

Yeah, storms have done this before, This one happenned to pick Florida as a destination. Looks pretty close IMHO although on about the latitude of Miami

[Sanibel]

Now the western portion looks good again.

I'm not seeing this lift north, but it has been staying near 35W so long I would believe it is caught in a cut-off blocking synoptic.


Starting to look better for formation with tighter roundness.

[ROCK]

Heres a good view of both....90L looks alot better but 98L holding its own for now...

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/SDDI/cgi/lis ... 0#controls

[Sanibel]

I just realized prime time for high season could be flashing on in front of us.

[ROCK]

I think the tropics just realized its September......