Canadian Model Hits the Crack Pipe Hard.......

Derecho · #1 Postby **Derecho** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 2:45 pm

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... hour=048hr

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... hour=072hr

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmctc2.cgi? ... hour=120hr

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hdd_50.gif

http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/data/mode ... hde_50.gif

Yes, that is apparently the 92L invest wave developing a little in the EPAC, crossing Mexico (apparently, gets a bit fuzzy, even on the 925mb vort maps which are often better than SLP), entering the BOC, and hitting Texas as a 999mb tropical system.

For entertainment purposes only, since they fixed the MRF/GFS to remove most of the boguscanes it's hard to find model fun :-)

Note that it's alone in doing this and also poorly initialized the EPAC INVEST system further to the west.

Any model by itself 120+ hours in the tropics is not to be taken seriously, but this is especially true of the CMC, which is a pretty dubious tropical/GOM model overall (Larry Cosgrove rode it straight into the toilet several times last year, for some strange reason.)

Not that this hasn't happened before (I belive once officially and of course Allison came from the EPAC but not as a designated system.)

About once every two years there's an EPAC to ATL crosser potential but it never pans out.

PTrackerLA · #2 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 3:13 pm

Even though its highly unlikely this will occur, it's something to keep in mind in the slower months of the year (like June :wink:

)

#3 Postby **vbhoutex** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 3:15 pm

YOu may call me crazy, which I am, or a wishcaster or whatever, but in checking the models the last several days I have picked this scenario up in several of them, albeit as you say very fuzzy. I did not post to it because it did not make sense to me especially since none even came near taking it as far as the CMC does. I certainly do not want to see this happen as one Allison is enough!!!!!!

#4 Postby **Steve** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 3:16 pm

Edited for content. This post modified to fit your screen

.

Steve

Anonymous · #5 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 3:27 pm

Eastern Pacific to Atlantic crossovers are not unheard of. In fact, I can think of one significant Atlantic-EPAC-Atlantic crossover that occurred in 1961...

Started with Hurricane Hattie

which crossed over to the EPAC and became Tropical Storm Simone

which crossed into the GOM and became Tropical Storm Inga

Wild, eh?

Rainband · #6 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 4:21 pm

Yes..I see the point..but the front coming down would prevent this scenario???? :? :? :?

Anonymous · #7 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 6:04 pm

A front would actually support an EPAC to Atlantic crossover.

Rainband · #8 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 6:14 pm

Supercane wrote:A front would actually support an EPAC to Atlantic crossover.

so it wouldn't interfere with development??? :roll:

Novice question sorry!! :lol:

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 7:34 pm

Yeah, you're right hehehe. If the system is shallow enough, a front would most likely just absorb all the energy. But if you have a stronger system then it would influence the track more so than the intensity. Or, you could just have a mid to upper level trough (something that helps steer hurricanes away from the east coast), which would not affect intensity period. Now I wasn't suggesting that this possible system had a chance; in fact an absorption seems to be the most likely case as seen with the GOM low about a week ago.

PTrackerLA · #10 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Jun 16, 2003 8:49 pm

Well this seems to be the season where the unheard of happens so you just never know!

Canadian Model Hits the Crack Pipe Hard.......

Canadian Model Hits the Crack Pipe Hard.......

Who is online