TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

DID the GFDl run for this new invest?

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

I dont think I have seen the Euro develop something that wasnt even a system yet so vigorously. Euro is not known for developing Phantom storms so this may indeed develop into something big IMHO-errrr one of the 2 invests may.

edit
This is seen on the main ECMWF site where its true slp pressures and not customizable or whatever. It is showing a deep low with strong winds.

[Trugunzn]

DID the GFDl run for this new invest?

not yet

[CrazyC83]

First this blob has a lot of SAL to clear, and that ain't easy.

[MWatkins]

First this blob has a lot of SAL to clear, and that ain't easy.

Dry air is always present in the tropical Atlantic...always.

There is PLENTY of available moisture in the envelope well away from the thunderstorms. This is not going to have a problem with dry air unless a upper feature injects it with some. At least not any time soon.

MW

[wxman57]

First model data (BAMs) just released:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902006) ON 20060903 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060903 0000 060903 1200 060904 0000 060904 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.5N 36.0W 12.4N 38.0W 13.4N 39.9W 14.4N 41.5W
BAMM 11.5N 36.0W 12.6N 38.1W 13.7N 40.0W 14.7N 41.7W
A98E 11.5N 36.0W 11.7N 37.2W 12.5N 38.8W 13.4N 40.7W
LBAR 11.5N 36.0W 12.3N 37.8W 13.2N 39.6W 14.4N 41.9W
SHIP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 53KTS
DSHP 25KTS 33KTS 44KTS 53KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060905 0000 060906 0000 060907 0000 060908 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.1N 43.1W 16.1N 46.1W 16.6N 49.0W 16.3N 51.5W
BAMM 15.5N 43.2W 16.6N 45.9W 17.3N 48.4W 17.5N 50.3W
A98E 14.2N 43.0W 15.7N 47.8W 16.6N 52.9W 16.6N 57.6W
LBAR 15.5N 44.2W 17.9N 48.7W 20.2N 53.5W 22.3N 59.2W
SHIP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS
DSHP 63KTS 80KTS 84KTS 81KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.5N LONCUR = 36.0W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 35.0W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.5N LONM24 = 34.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[Trugunzn]

The ships makes this develope more then invest 98L

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ships already put this at 90 mph winds in 5 days.

[SouthFloridawx]

[JonathanBelles]

what is the ukm doin?

[Noah]

NHC is not picking up on it??

[HurricaneHunter914]

They always screw up their run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

seems like all the models want to curve it back west toward the end of the 5 days.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

what is the ukm doin?

Yeah, the UKMET has issues! It turns the system NE immediately and against the flow of the Bermuda High. http://tinyurl.com/pf586

[cinlfla]

First this blob has a lot of SAL to clear, and that ain't easy.

Dry air is always present in the tropical Atlantic...always.

There is PLENTY of available moisture in the envelope well away from the thunderstorms. This is not going to have a problem with dry air unless a upper feature injects it with some. At least not any time soon.

MW

I love it when someone with experience and knowledge explains things I was wondering about the dry air. Thanks

[SouthFloridawx]

[WeatherEmperor]

what does the synoptic pattern look like for the next 7-10 days by the global models?

<RICKY>

[Sanibel]

They are hitting the warm SST's of the West Atlantic and swirling up.


Prime time folks.

[cycloneye]

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 800 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH.

[HurricaneHunter914]

That's how most TD's start off. When the NHC mentions a possible TD then the chances go up significantly.