Invest 91L Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

This is the system that models are jumping on during the past days...QuikScat indicates wind barbs of 45 knots from the west..Lets see how it behaves as it emerges from the coast..

[jabber]

I wonder if this is the one the models have been jumping all over. Pretty Impressive. But lets see if it goes 'poof'..... The year of the 'Poofs'

[cycloneye]

I dont want to be a spoiler but that system will have to contend with this new sal outbreak.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

[CrazyC83]

At first absolutely. 98L has it much easier.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart is already a tropical wave.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_12Z.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

Quote from the Models thread.

Forecast issued for the NAMMA project:

"NAMMA weather forecast Sept 2 2006
September 2nd, 2006

NAMMA forecast Sept 2

Today is a no-fly day. The convection embedded in the ITCZ is not expected to intensify until Sept 3. Heavy dust loading can be seen as far as 53W. The southern edge of the dust plume is south of CV near 15W. The dust plume we sampled yesterday is steadily moving west and reached 22W. A small-amplitude AEW is located southeast of the CV embedded in the ITCZ and moderate convection is occurring. Convection associated with the wave is near 14N17W. Due to dry and dusty air ahead, this convection is expected to weaken in the next 12 hours. Another strong convection behind the wave is located near 10N10W. Strong monsoon trough bringing moisture from the southwest may support and strengthen this convection for the next 24 hours. The wave amplitude will increase and gradually form a closed circulation by 06Z Sept 3 centered at 12N20W. Both GFS and UIUC-WRF shows the circulation is well organized and shows sign of intensification for the next 24 hours. By 12Z Sept 3, the center is at 14N22W by GFS and 18N18W by UIUC-WRF. The GFS is taking the wave to the northwest over the island through Monday. General model consensus (GFS, UIUC-WRF, ECMWF, and ARPEGE) is to develop the wave west of the island towards a tropical depression intensity through Sept 3 to 4. Tomorrow is a scheduled fly day."

Daily forecasts for the project can be found here.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

The Euro likes this wave and has it still moving west in 168 hrs
Loop it here http://tinyurl.com/s24px

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 02 2006

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE IS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC MAP ALONG
20W/21W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS
SEEN IN LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON VISIBLE IMAGERY...BUT THE MAIN
JUSTIFICATION FOR ADDING THIS WAVE LIES IN THE VEERING SEEN IN
THE LOW LEVEL WINDS IN THE DAKAR SOUNDING OVER THE LAST 24 TO
36HRS. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE ASSOCIATED
CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION THAT
MOVED OFF AFRICA LAST EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED MODERATE STILL
LIES FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 22W-25W. GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THIS
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL...THOUGH THE MODELS PLACEMENT IS
SLIGHTLY E OF MINE. THERE MAY BE A WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING
ALONG THIS WAVE BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THIS AT 1200 UTC WAS NOT
HIGH.

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg

BIG Blow up tonight. Any possible mention in the TWO?

[SouthFloridawx]

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22W S OF 17N MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS SEEN IN LOW CLOUD MOTIONS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN
19W-23W.

805TWD

[Zardoz]

Is it beginning to rotate a little already?

http://www.fileden.com/files/18324/investheaven.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/met8/eatl/loop-wv.html

[ROCK]

I dont want to be a spoiler but that system will have to contend with this new sal outbreak.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html

maybe the system to the north can cut off some of this SAL or at least dilute it some....

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

[HenkL]

Forecast from the NAMMA project:

"Forecast Summary for 9/3/06
September 3rd, 2006

The wave over the coast yesterday has now moved to a location just south of the Cape Verde islands. Infrared satellite imagery and 925mb analysis indicates a wave center near 15N/23W. The wave is moving to the west at 10-15 knots. Intense convection has been forming with this wave over night, continuing into this morning, and is showing a fairly extensive cloud shield from 26W to 22W. A second convective burst is also located to the southwest of the wave, as well as a third convection burst to the east around at 14N/20W. The GFS 18-hour forecast indicates a westward movement to approximately 24W by the middle of today’s flight. The 36 hour forecast, valid at 12Z tomorrow shows a more east/west closed vorticity center at low-levels, centered around 15N/26W. The GFS resolves a slower translation speed for the wave, however keeping a similar speed as current, tomorrows position may be farther to the west than indicated by GFS forecasts. Only slight intensification is indicated over the next 48-hours in the GFS, however the 54-hour forecast shows the beginning of an intensification stage, with the center of the wave located at 14N/29W. By 72-hours, valid 00Z on Tues., Sept. 5th the circulation center is between 35 and 40W, and remaining at 14-15N. Arpege and ECMWF confirm a broad circulation forming within the next 48-hours to the west of the islands. Precipitable water forecasts show a strong moisture convergence into the system, while dry dusty air remains to the north/northwestern regions of this wave. After the current wave, no significant wave is forecast to exit the coast until Thursday/Friday."

[CrazyC83]

91L soon? Although it does have a lot of dry air ahead of it which will make life very difficult...

[Zardoz]

...it does have a lot of dry air ahead of it which will make life very difficult...

But what about this statement? :

Precipitable water forecasts show a strong moisture convergence into the system, while dry dusty air remains to the north/northwestern regions of this wave.

EDIT:

OTOH, JB says this:

Yet, another tropical wave in near 14 north and 25 west and is moving to the west at 10-15 knots. There are a couple of thunderstorms near the center of this wave and just south of the Cape Verde Islands. Though the waters are warm enough and the shear is low here, a cloud of Saharan dust to the north of the wave could prohibit further development over the next few days.

Just wondering about the "moisture convergence" statement...

[WindRunner]

Since no one has mentioned it, the GFS develops (and has been developing) this one and takes it on a track somewhat following 90L/soon-to-be-Six.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

Dont forget about this one...It appears also to be slowly organizing...However, is not yet being mentioned in the TWO...

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

According to latest NHC Surface Analysis Chart this tropical wave already has a 1008mb low...In their next discussion at 805pm, they will talk more about this...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/ATSA_18Z.gif