Tropical Wave East of Lesser Antilles (Ex 98L)

[millibar]

Just wanted to say that I was obviously way wrong in my post yesterday. I said "no way" for a westward track to continue with these two systems. I have never posted anything so wrong during my membership on this board. My apologies...seldom have I been this incorrect. -removed-, I guess.

I'll take my crow cold, please.

Regards,
Chuck

[OURAGAN]

I am very confused, which one of this system will develop in a tropical depression?
The 5:30 AM TWO says the eastern sytem, and the TWD says the Western one.

Read this:

ABNT20 KNHC 030925
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT SUN SEP 3 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER IN WASHINGTON DC HAS
ISSUED THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THE REMNANTS OF ERNESTO...LOCATED OVER
WESTERN NEW YORK.

A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE ACCOMPANIED BY A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS GENERATING A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 1450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ABOUT
1050 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALSO ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST OF THE DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS UNLIKELY AS THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY MERGE
LATER TODAY WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE EAST.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL WESTWARD-MOVING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS INCREASED A LITTLE THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.


AXNT20 KNHC 031101
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N 37.5W.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 16N
BETWEEN 38W AND 41W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N39W 14N35W. FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT TO THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION STAGE IS UNLIKELY AS
IT IS LIKELY THAT THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MERGE LATER
TODAY WITH THE 11.5N 42.5W LOW PRESSURE CENTER.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
11.5N 42.5W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 14N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 59W NEAR WHAT
APPEARS TO BE A SURFACE TO LOW LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 56W FROM 10N
TO 20N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY.

[TheEuropean]

Invest 98L is now deleted at NRL.

[Mac]

Invest 98L is now deleted at NRL.

Does that mean that invest 90L will now become invest 188L???? [snicker]

[hial2]

The latest GFS is scary!


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

[HurricaneHunter914]

98L has already merged so should this thread be locked?

[cycloneye]

Well,instead of locking the thread,we can continue to discuss about the tropical wave ex 98L to see down the road what it does.

[wxman57]

I can see a weak low-level spin near 11.5N/46.5W, but no convection is associated with it. This disturbance will probably die out as 90L near 14.5/38W takes over. I'd still keep an eye on it, as it's separated fairly far from 90L now. GFS develops this one and moves it to Florida and 90L out to sea.

[Sanibel]

Absorbed by 90L.

[jusforsean]

anyone else think it is a fish?

Yes, and the east coast is the aquarium!!
Why does it seem that all the invests and models piont right at florida at some point or another what did we do ??? After Ernesto I wont believe the track until I am shacked up in a hotel with a glow stick!

[Ola]

I can see a weak low-level spin near 11.5N/46.5W, but no convection is associated with it. This disturbance will probably die out as 90L near 14.5/38W takes over. I'd still keep an eye on it, as it's separated fairly far from 90L now. GFS develops this one and moves it to Florida and 90L out to sea.

Agreed 57. Ex 98 might actually turn out to be the more dangerous if it doesnt dissipate soon, ala Deby/Chris. 90 might lift north and keep 98 low in latitude. IF 98 doesnt loose the low and refires convection after they separate a bit. You can see right now that the eastern side of the circulation of 98 is being disrupted by the circulation of 90 which is stronger.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[Zardoz]

I'd still keep an eye on it, as it's separated fairly far from 90L now.

It sure is. I really don't understand how they are considered to have "merged":

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

[CrazyC83]

Fujiwhara effect?

[ConvergenceZone]

Okay, is the ex 98 invest the one in the below satellite with all of the convection??

Now there's another one JUST entering the picture from the east, is THAT the one they say can develop into a depression today?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

The latest TWO says that this ex invest will merge with a aystem from the east, but isn't the system in the east the 90L?? Perhaps someone can post a satellite pic pointing to the invests and the system this suppose to merge with to the east?

Thanx in advance.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convergence Zone, 90L is the on the NHC expect to become a TD, not the one behind it, that one isn't even mentioned.

[ConvergenceZone]

Convergence Zone, 90L is the on the NHC expect to become a TD, not the one behind it, that one isn't even mentioned.

Hmm, see I thought 90L is the one that just came off Africa the last couple of days, as opposed to the one in the below satellite pic. I thought the one in the below Satellite pic east of the islands was 98L...So I have it backwards? The one below still has alot of convection and great shape to it......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

[Sanibel]

Fujiwhara? - not really. 90L will just strip 98L of energy as it convects and pulls the energy away from 98L's surface feature.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Convergence Zone, 90L is the on the NHC expect to become a TD, not the one behind it, that one isn't even mentioned.

Hmm, see I thought 90L is the one that just came off Africa the last couple of days, as opposed to the one in the below satellite pic. I thought the one in the below Satellite pic east of the islands was 98L...So I have it backwards? The one below still has alot of convection and great shape to it......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

That wave that has alot of red to it is 90L, behind her was another large wave that you thought was 90L. The convection at 47W and 10N is 98L.

[Zardoz]

[ConvergenceZone]

Convergence Zone, 90L is the on the NHC expect to become a TD, not the one behind it, that one isn't even mentioned.

Hmm, see I thought 90L is the one that just came off Africa the last couple of days, as opposed to the one in the below satellite pic. I thought the one in the below Satellite pic east of the islands was 98L...So I have it backwards? The one below still has alot of convection and great shape to it......

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn.jpg

That wave that has alot of red to it is 90L, behind her was another large wave that you thought was 90L. The convection at 47W and 10N is 98L.

okay thanx. LOL, no wonder I've been so confused the last day or two...