TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[rnbaida]

where can I get the latest GFDL model?

[WindRunner]

When do the next set of models come out? If i remember correctly dont they come out at 3pm?

Right! 1800Z.

Actually, they'll run around 18Z (2pm) and could be out anywhere from 2:15 to 3pm in most cases, depending on how many model outputs they have to do.

[Derek Ortt]

I'm leaning to something much weaker than SHIPS

WV clearly shows a very large upper trough dropping to the south, right toward the developing system

I think there is a good chance we will see Florence out of this, but I do not see rapid development beyond moderate TS until it reaches about 60W

[Brent]

with its current speed and just for interest sakes... how many days (if it stays on current track) would it take to get to the east coast?

Probably at least a week, but it's no sure thing it'll get to the East Coast.

[rnbaida]

I'm leaning to something much weaker than SHIPS

WV clearly shows a very large upper trough dropping to the south, right toward the developing system

I think there is a good chance we will see Florence out of this, but I do not see rapid development beyond moderate TS until it reaches about 60W

do you think that it will curve out?

[ConvergenceZone]

if everyone prepared correctly and did nothing stupid during and after the storm, we could get hit by a strong cat 1 and have some fun.. AND not have any deaths or even injuries.
but that's too much to ask for right?
i would love to get a cat 2.
after Wilma, I went around and cleaned yards for $80 a piece. Made almost $3000

dude, so you'd want a cat2 to hit at the expense of others just so you can make 80$ a day cleaning yards?

that's not cool...


Anyway, back on topic....

This invest does have a nice shape to it. I will be interested to see wha they find later today.

[cycloneye]

where can I get the latest GFDL model?

Be Patient.It will come shortly.

[Eyewall]

if everyone prepared correctly and did nothing stupid during and after the storm, we could get hit by a strong cat 1 and have some fun.. AND not have any deaths or even injuries.
but that's too much to ask for right?
i would love to get a cat 2.
after Wilma, I went around and cleaned yards for $80 a piece. Made almost $3000

Dude...you have no clue what would happen with even a weak storm on the north central gulf coast. In my area, Evacs would be ordered for a Tropical Storm so yea, that's too much to ask.

If you left town for a TS, you have no clue.
unless you live right on the beach, there is no reason to evac for a TS.

basically i love getting hit by storms, and what makes me mad is when i hear about someone getting killed by a branch falling on their car DURING the storm (Wilma).. ITS SIMPLE: DON'T GO OUT DURING THE STORM!

the reason i posted this is because someone said that they didn't want to be affected by any storm. If you are scared by hurricanes, then move somewhere else

[Zardoz]

Take one look at it. It's definitely curling up into 'cane...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at2_0.html

Where do you think it will go, Sanibel?

[rnbaida]

is it just me or is this system growing in size?

[Bane]

where can I get the latest GFDL model?

Be Patient.It will come shortly.

i think patience is something this new user struggles with. speaking of patience, where is will?

[WindRunner]

if everyone prepared correctly and did nothing stupid during and after the storm, we could get hit by a strong cat 1 and have some fun.. AND not have any deaths or even injuries.
but that's too much to ask for right?
i would love to get a cat 2.
after Wilma, I went around and cleaned yards for $80 a piece. Made almost $3000

Dude...you have no clue what would happen with even a weak storm on the north central gulf coast. In my area, Evacs would be ordered for a Tropical Storm so yea, that's too much to ask.

If you left town for a TS, you have no clue.
unless you live right on the beach, there is no reason to evac for a TS.

basically i love getting hit by storms, and what makes me mad is when i hear about someone getting killed by a branch falling on their car DURING the storm (Wilma).. ITS SIMPLE: DON'T GO OUT DURING THE STORM!

the reason i posted this is because someone said that they didn't want to be affected by any storm. If you are scared by hurricanes, then move somewhere else

He lives in the bayous of Louisiana, SE of NO. That's even more prone, so it's well worth it. That tone really wasn't necessary.

[rnbaida]

where can I get the latest GFDL model?

Be Patient.It will come shortly.

i think patience is something this new user struggles with. speaking of patience, where is will?

umm.....hey I see that your avatar says that you at a cat 5...... it doesnt matter when you signed up...How many posts have you written? I signed up on august 2 and i have written more posts than you!!!

[WindRunner]

12Z GFDL output:

WHXX04 KWBC 031728
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 90L

INITIAL TIME 12Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.5 38.8 300./11.1
6 14.4 39.4 327./10.9
12 15.1 40.2 308./10.4
18 15.6 41.5 295./13.4
24 16.2 42.8 292./14.0
30 16.7 43.8 298./10.5
36 17.0 44.5 292./ 7.9
42 17.3 45.2 294./ 7.6
48 17.3 46.1 273./ 8.4
54 18.0 46.8 312./ 9.2
60 18.2 47.7 282./ 8.8
66 18.4 48.5 288./ 7.3
72 18.8 48.9 314./ 6.2
78 19.6 49.4 328./ 9.4
84 20.3 50.7 297./13.2
90 20.7 51.7 292./10.4
96 21.2 53.0 291./13.1
102 21.7 54.2 293./12.0
108 22.2 55.5 290./13.8
114 22.7 57.1 287./15.2
120 23.0 58.7 282./15.2
126 23.1 60.3 272./14.3

That's a good recurve.

[rnbaida]

GFDL curves this out to sea...

[KWT]

12z GFDL also shows the system re-curiving back west again towards the end of the run however windrunner.

[Bane]

where can I get the latest GFDL model?

Be Patient.It will come shortly.

i think patience is something this new user struggles with. speaking of patience, where is will?

umm.....hey I see that your avatar says that you at a cat 5...... it doesnt matter when you signed up...How many posts have you written? I signed up on august 2 and i have written more posts than you!!!

it's not the size of the post count that matters. it's the quality. that's something i'm sure you'll figure out eventually.

[rnbaida]

what is the GFDl intensity forecast?

[cycloneye]

Let me explain something here, all of us Mods have been very busy this weekend doing our jobs the best we can. Effective immediately, all non essential posts a mod deems non-essentail will contunue to be deleted and if I see one member being rude to an admin, mod or promet you are automatically inactive for 12 hours or more. You got a problem with this pm me I'd love to discuss it with you

[rnbaida]

CMC shows a huge system....

12z CMC at 144 Hours