TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[jhamps10]

Now can we change the title?

I agree with cycloneeye on this one, until I see an special statment or the first advisory (which will most likely happen) I wouldn't change the name, just to keep from posting false info.

and I agree, no on this one.... Hopefully it can stay out of the gom and again like I said with ernesto, not to wish an hurricane or a tropical storm on anyone, but the GOM just can not handle another storm for a couple of years to come.....

[ConvergenceZone]

No fishing for this one.

what makes you say that Dixie? I know that there's always a small possibility it won't, but the METs and models seem to be saying recurve mostly likely...

[SouthFloridawx]

ITS TD NUMBER SIX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Yes.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Again I rather wait for the official word from NHC in the form of a special Tropical Disturbance Statement or wait until 5 PM to see if advisories are iniciated..

Atlantic
99L.INVEST
06L.SIX

We'll see the advisories at 5PM i would Imagine.

[WindRunner]

This is official as it is off of the NHC's servers . . . the preliminary best track data for 06L so far.

AL, 06, 2006090200, , BEST, 0, 113N, 330W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090206, , BEST, 0, 114N, 340W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090212, , BEST, 0, 115N, 350W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090218, , BEST, 0, 116N, 360W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 06, 2006090300, , BEST, 0, 121N, 369W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090306, , BEST, 0, 127N, 378W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090312, , BEST, 0, 135N, 388W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 175, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 06, 2006090318, , BEST, 0, 142N, 399W, 30, 1005, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, SIX, D,

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/atcf/btk/bal062006.dat

[ConvergenceZone]

Now can we change the title?

I agree with cycloneeye on this one, until I see an special statment or the first advisory (which will most likely happen) I wouldn't change the name, just to keep from posting false info.

and I agree, no on this one.... Hopefully it can stay out of the gom and again like I said with ernesto, not to wish an hurricane or a tropical storm on anyone, but the GOM just can not handle another storm for a couple of years to come.....

I concur, what happens is that when you change the title to TD6, all of the sudden you'll get a ton of posts with people saying "I don't see TD6 yet"? and then you'll have to explain the whole "noname" thingy to everyone and it's alot more work, but that's just my opinion ....

and Jhamps, why do you say no "fish"??

[Windsurfer_NYC]

I agree we should continue calling this 90L until official word from NHC, but is it possible to put some hint of this new change in the tile? like: 'NRL=06L.NONAME' ?

thanks

[hurricanefloyd5]

td#6 possible now!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Brent]

Yeah, I think it's official enough to say for sure that it will be TD 6 at 5.

[WmE]

Yeah, I think it's official enough to say for sure that it will be TD 6 at 5.

Not 100%. Remember Pilar last year?

[Thunder44]

I agree we should continue calling this 90L until official word from NHC, but is it possible to put some hint of this new change in the tile? like: 'NRL=06L.NONAME' ?

thanks

The title of the thread can be changed to 6LNONAME. Since that is what is on the site now and that would be the proper name. That doesn't necessarily mean we are calling it TD 6.

[ConvergenceZone]

even though it's extremely likely it will be a fish. I'm excited that perhaps I'll have a good system to finally track!!!!

Ernesto was hella ugly!

[CrazyC83]

Yep, we should call it an Invest until it is declared 06L.NONAME (or 06L.Florence if winds are already TS-force, which I highly doubt).

[Grease Monkey]

No it's a good idea not to put it up yet. I'm not looking forward to the server overloading again.

[jhamps10]

it looks like dr. lyons was excatly correct on predicting this to become a td at 5 pm, he said that this morning on TWC's boring weekend moring show. I don't think he excatly said td at 5, but he did mention a strong possiblity of it becoming a td by the evening. so good job dr. lyons, your the only person on the weather channel other than cantore that I trust.

[SouthFloridawx]

# storm06
# storm50
# storm90
# storm99



Up on the SFWMD site too...
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html

[cycloneye]

Yeah, I think it's official enough to say for sure that it will be TD 6 at 5.

I also know it will be a TD at 5,but you never know if NHC doesn't pull the trigger at 5 for some reason.Storm2k is a serious board that provides information to the members that always is the truth and false information is not allowed and we dont want to make a mistake calling it a TD two hours before.It's better play it safe.

[Thunder44]

Yep, we should call it an Invest until it is declared 06L.NONAME (or 06L.Florence if winds are already TS-force, which I highly doubt).

But it is 06L.NONAME on NRL now. That's is technically not calling it TD 6.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

Yeah, I think it's official enough to say for sure that it will be TD 6 at 5.

I also know it will be a TD at 5,but you never know if NHC doesn't pull the trigger at 5 for some reason.Storm2k is a serious board that provides information to the members that always is the truth and false information is not allowed and we dont want to make a mistake calling it a TD two hours before.It's better play it safe.

It is truth and fact that NRL has replaced 90L with 06L.NONAME And listing that does not mistakenly call it a TD....

[jhamps10]

looks like florida to the carolina's may be on the bullet end of this one in about a week. (Not an actual prediction just from looking at models at this time the risk area I use is from the end points of the furtherest out model plots, and then taking them to the coast)

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest models:



looks like everyone needs to watch this one. The models have shifted even further south! IF they verify, then it looks like S. Florida or the Florida straights are a good possibility. However, it looks it could do anything from turning south into Haiti or turning north into the Atlantic.

BTW: notice the purple model was initialized in the wrong position. I would discount it's track at this point.