My September and October Hurricane Risk Assessment

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST. This is ONLY ONE MAN'S INTURPITATION OF THE PATTERN, IT COULD VERY WELL BE IN ERROR.

In August a major Pattern Shift Occurred. Where as in the period from late May to July a Mean Trough dominate the East, a Mean Ridge Prevailed, as the Mean Trough shifted out into the Central Atlantic. However recently model projections have indicated an upcoming change; in which a more amplified Pattern will prevail with a Mean Eastern Trough and Western Atlantic Ridging dominating trough September, and perhaps even the start of October. As such I have created a hurricane landfall forecast reflecting this for September and October. I believe over all that most storms will have a mean NNE motion during this time. In addition with the SAL and Shear weakening the risk of major hurricane formation and landfalls will increase:

Three areas; The Northern Bahamas, most of Florida, and the mid-South Carolina Coast to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina are in the extreme risk zones.

Map Key -

Yellow: Low Risk

Orange: Moderate Risk

Red: High Risk

Purple: Extreme Risk

Link: http://photos1.blogger.com/hello/198/71 ... ctRisk.jpg

[whereverwx]

In August a major Pattern Shift Occurred. Where as in the period from late May to July a Mean Trough dominate the East, a Mean Ridge Prevailed, as the Mean Trough shifted out into the Central Atlantic. However recently model projections have indicated an upcoming change; in which a more amplified Pattern will prevail with a Mean Eastern Trough and Western Atlantic Ridging dominating trough September, and perhaps even the start of October. As such I have created a hurricane landfall forecast reflecting this for September and October. I believe over all that most storms will have a mean NNE motion during this time. In addition with the SAL and Shear weakening the risk of major hurricane formation and landfalls will increase:

Three areas; The Northern Bahamas, most of Florida, and the mid-South Carolina Coast to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina are in the extreme risk zones.

Map Key -

Yellow: Low Risk

Orange: Moderate Risk

Red: High Risk

Purple: Extreme Risk

It looks very reasonable. Nice map, btw.

(Also, I made the image work by uploading it by URL to ImageShack)

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have heard that a strong ridge is forecast to build back in toward mid to late September. If this happened wouldn't it mean more of a GOM risk again?

[Jim Cantore]

I don't think I've ever been in any sort of high risk area.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Perhaps, but given the pattern I personally doubt it. I think that most, if not all, storms will be sweep either out to sea, or else into the Risk Areas I noted, rather than make landfall West of the Florida Panhandle.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

BTW Thanks Calamity. I kept trying to upload it earlier, and couldn't, so I just put it on my site instead.

[SouthFloridawx]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=89350

I guess we are kind of thinking the same thing. I'll post more about my thoughts tonight. Good post hybridstorm.

[Opal storm]

I doubt we will have a stronger ridge build in,usually in late Sept and Oct cold fronts starting coming down and sweep storms more eastward.

Nice forecast.

[WindRunner]

I have heard that a strong ridge is forecast to build back in toward mid to late September. If this happened wouldn't it mean more of a GOM risk again?

Really doubt that it would build that far back, like Hybridstorm said. That would funnel the storms up/along the coast into is high+ risk areas.

Looks like you don't believe we'll have that many low riders coming in from the Atlantic towards the Caribbean as you have the lower Lesser Antilles in low risk. It does however appear that you are favoring development in the Caribbean and having those systems move north or northwest, which is certainly a common October track. Now that I think about it, those risk areas are probably very climatological for September/October, and they seem to be appropriate for this year. Maybe that means this season will be about average despite what everyone is saying . . . interesting. Great discussion, Hybridstorm, and I agree.

BTW . . . the link in the first post still isn't working, though calamity's transload is.

[TampaSteve]

In August a major Pattern Shift Occurred. Where as in the period from late May to July a Mean Trough dominate the East, a Mean Ridge Prevailed, as the Mean Trough shifted out into the Central Atlantic. However recently model projections have indicated an upcoming change; in which a more amplified Pattern will prevail with a Mean Eastern Trough and Western Atlantic Ridging dominating trough September, and perhaps even the start of October. As such I have created a hurricane landfall forecast reflecting this for September and October. I believe over all that most storms will have a mean NNE motion during this time. In addition with the SAL and Shear weakening the risk of major hurricane formation and landfalls will increase:

Three areas; The Northern Bahamas, most of Florida, and the mid-South Carolina Coast to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina are in the extreme risk zones.

Map Key -

Yellow: Low Risk

Orange: Moderate Risk

Red: High Risk

Purple: Extreme Risk

It looks very reasonable. Nice map, btw.

(Also, I made the image work by uploading it by URL to ImageShack)

We're still waiting for "The Big One" here in Tampa...every time a storm is forecast to hit Tampa, it never does...all we've gotten is two "back door" storms in 2004 (Frances and Jeanne). Not that I'm complaining or anything. I really hope the rest of the season is as much of a bustout as it's been so far.

[Patrick99]

I don't know if I'd let Texas and Mexico off the hook all that easily.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Well I just call the Potential over all Pattern like I see it. I could be wrong, but I highly doubt any storms will make landfall in the Western GOM, or even Northern for that matter to a less degree of certainty. With an over all mean NNE motion to the tracks, just seem unlikely.