TD #6 Central Atlantic,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Wx_Warrior]

Didn't say a fish did i? I said East Coast-NOT A FISH

[wxman57]

I see the new ECMWF turns it northward along 60W. Big question is whether the strong high building off the east U.S. coast can build quickly enough to the east to blockTD 6/Floriece or whether it'll accelerate out to sea in about 6 days.

[cycloneye]

[Extremeweatherguy]

looks like the NHC also thinks this will curve back west. Based on the cone of uncertainty...I would say everyone from the GOM to the EC needs to be on guard with this one.

[Extremeweatherguy]

From the discussion:

A strong
mid-latitude trough is northwest of the depression...and this
weakness should allow the present motion to continue...with some
decrease in forward speed...for the next day or two. After
that...global models forecast that the trough will lift out...with
high pressure building eastward to the north of the cyclone. This
pattern is expected to Bend the track back to the left towards the
end of the forecast period. Track guidance models are in general
agreement on this scenario...although with great differences in
forward speed. The official forecast leans toward the faster
motion of the GFDL and BAM models...with the UKMET and ECMWF being
considerably slower.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... 5day?large

[jusforsean]

another one that will be days till we know.....................................It will fell like years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Trugunzn]

Bermuda should define watch this one!

[Extremeweatherguy]

another one that will be days till we know.....................................It will fell like years!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I know. It will seem like forever, but by next weekend we should begin to get a good idea of where this will end up.

[SouthFloridawx]

[hawkeh]

I'm not liking this one...

[JonathanBelles]

on that line cape canaveral is in direct path of a hurricane.

[Grease Monkey]

So based on that track do you know if they expect it to hit northern florida to somewhere in the carolinas?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Based on the NHC speed, this should still be 9-10 days away from any land affects though so plenty of time to watch it.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not liking this one...

Me either. While I don't see any real rapid intensification (as what could have happened with Ernesto had the track been south and west), TD6/Florence has plenty of time over water to develop into a very dangerous storm. It will take time to build up though I think.

[JonathanBelles]

So based on that track do you know if it's expected to hit northern florida to somewhere in the carolinas?

i use my pencil as an imaginry line to extend the track for thew 1st 5 advisories as they are the most inaccurate.

[Extremeweatherguy]

on that line cape canaveral is in direct path of a hurricane.

remember, don't focus on the line...focus on the cone as a whole. Based on the cone this could go anywhere from skimming the northern islands (and eventually winding up south of FL) to even heading out to sea.

[Stratosphere747]

Franklin also gave good reasons why the this could move even further north, and become a "fish" type storm....

[Trugunzn]

could be track like this:

[Derek Ortt]

Nobody is in the direct path of anything

People here nee dto realise that you cannot extrapolate the forecast beyond the time period it is used for. That is not the intent of the NHC forecasts (or NWHHC forecasts for that matter). They are valid through 120 hours and assuming anything more is a misuse of the product