Thoughts on TD #6

[Vortex]

This should be an interesting storm to watch. The model guidance for the next 1-3 days brings the storm mostly NW. However, after the trough lifts out a strong high pressure ridge is forecasted to build in and build westward with the cyclone through late week and into next weekend. So in summary, this storm should move NW for about 2 or so days then turn back to the west/wnw. As far as any impacts from the Bahamas westward I won't even speculate at this time. Almost all intensity models bring this to a formidable storm in due time. The ones not yet on board will be in the coming days. This scenario is not uncommon and those that have been able to make the trek westward to the U.S. coast generally have names we remember. Below is the most recent guidance and you can clearly see the bend back to the west. Question to the board, what are your thoughts on this storm to be called florence in the coming days?

http://www.nexrad3.com/stserver/AL06200 ... dels.shtml

The Above post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Vortex]

9/3 18z GFS rolling in...So far it indicates a wnw/nw heading for about the next 2 days then due west thereafter. It's only out through I think 72 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Epsilon_Fan]

it looks like it is becoming better organized by the hour and I think it will become Florence... if high pressure builds over it and it moves west in the next few days I think it could become a strong storm

[cycloneye]

Vortex,I put in your post the storm2k disclaimer.

[LarryWx]

When AUG SOI<-10 (which was the case for 2006), actual U.S. EC Aug/Sep H landfalls stats (excluding close calls) favor GA north over the FL east coast ~7:1. This is in stark contrast to years when the Aug SOI >-10, when the ratio is only ~2:1. So, if I were told that TD#6 was going to be named at some point and that it definitely was going to hit the east coast as a TC, I'd lay pretty heavy odds on it not being a FL hit since only 1 in 8 EC storms hit FL with Aug SOI<-10.

Now, to be clear, that doesn't mean at all that I'm saying that as of now the EC north of FL is likely to be hit. Because it has formed so far east, it is going to be tough for any of the EC to get hit. One thing that would help its chances would be if it didn't become a NS until at least ~50W. Note that the furthest east on record that any Aug/Sep storm formed during years with Aug SOI<-10 and later hit anywhere on the US EC (15 total) as a TC is 50.5W (Betsy of 1965). This is consistent with the idea that E.C. U.S. hits from MDR storms tend to be reduced when Aug SOI<-10.

[Wx_Warrior]

The EC is in just as much danger as the rest of the hurricane likely areas. Way too far out for any guessing. The most sensibile person should realize that.

Maybe in abour 4-5 days models will get a better graps. It's a long ways out there boys & girls.

[caneman]

When AUG SOI<-10 (which was the case for 2006), actual U.S. EC Aug/Sep H landfalls stats (excluding close calls) favor GA north over the FL east coast ~7:1. This is in stark contrast to years when the Aug SOI >-10, when the ratio is only ~2:1. So, if I were told that TD#6 was going to be named at some point and that it definitely was going to hit the east coast as a TC, I'd lay pretty heavy odds on it not being a FL hit since only 1 in 8 EC storms hit FL with Aug SOI<-10.

Now, to be clear, that doesn't mean at all that I'm saying that as of now the EC north of FL is likely to be hit. Because it has formed so far east, it is going to be tough for any of the EC to get hit. One thing that would help its chances would be if it didn't become a NS until at least ~50W. Note that the furthest east on record that any Aug/Sep storm formed during years with Aug SOI<-10 and later hit anywhere on the US EC (15 total) as a TC is 50.5W (Betsy of 1965). This is consistent with the idea that E.C. U.S. hits from MDR storms tend to be reduced when Aug SOI<-10.

Larry,

Been following your very well thought out post and you'vre done a good job this far. Where do you think the risk area will be from mid Sept to sayend of Hurricane season, if any?

[bellavista2]

Bahamas--
Short question to the pros and almost pros--
Northern Bahamas yes or no?

[SCMedic]

Bahamas--
Short question to the pros and almost pros--
Northern Bahamas yes or no?

Probably not too realistic to expect an accurate forecast that far out. Be prepared. Better safe than sorry.

[LarryWx]

When AUG SOI<-10 (which was the case for 2006), actual U.S. EC Aug/Sep H landfalls stats (excluding close calls) favor GA north over the FL east coast ~7:1. This is in stark contrast to years when the Aug SOI >-10, when the ratio is only ~2:1. So, if I were told that TD#6 was going to be named at some point and that it definitely was going to hit the east coast as a TC, I'd lay pretty heavy odds on it not being a FL hit since only 1 in 8 EC storms hit FL with Aug SOI<-10.

Now, to be clear, that doesn't mean at all that I'm saying that as of now the EC north of FL is likely to be hit. Because it has formed so far east, it is going to be tough for any of the EC to get hit. One thing that would help its chances would be if it didn't become a NS until at least ~50W. Note that the furthest east on record that any Aug/Sep storm formed during years with Aug SOI<-10 and later hit anywhere on the US EC (15 total) as a TC is 50.5W (Betsy of 1965). This is consistent with the idea that E.C. U.S. hits from MDR storms tend to be reduced when Aug SOI<-10.

Larry,

Been following your very well thought out post and you'vre done a good job this far. Where do you think the risk area will be from mid Sept to sayend of Hurricane season, if any?

Thanks. Unfortunately, this analysis only analyzes storms forming through 9/30. However, my guess for FL itself would be that the FL west coast would be a good bit more at risk of a hit than the FL east coast, especially for 10/1+.