GFDL brings Florence down to 934MB in 126 hours

[zlaxier]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

That was posted already almost an hour and a half ago at the TD 6 thread.

[DelrayMorris]

Um... lets hope that's one of those cases where "we are not skilled at intensity forecasts"... or whatever it was they said in the Ernesto forecasts. Cause that's a CAT5 (says winds of 137 knots).

Or am I reading that wrong?

[Downdraft]

Thought we were letting the NHC give them names? I can't find Florence on their site anywhere at the moment other than the next name to be assigned.

[SCMedic]

Thought we were letting the NHC give them names? I can't find Florence on their site anywhere at the moment other than the next name to be assigned.

I believe that falls under sarcastic and rude to other members. Where's the ban police??

[Rainband]

Thought we were letting the NHC give them names? I can't find Florence on their site anywhere at the moment other than the next name to be assigned.

I believe that falls under sarcastic and rude to other members. Where's the ban police??

Actually it's not named and it wasn't rude. Your comment was though. Ban Police??

[SCMedic]

Actually, mine was more tongue in cheek. I do agree with the fact that we shouldn't be calling storms names before they are.

What's the deal with everyone being on edge around here lately?

[huricanwatcher]

90L or (FLO) has very feathery , whisper edges ..... which IMO .. is showing that the wrap around is inevidable and just waiting to put on the power.. Watched too many BIG storms start out this way...

[rockyman]

Actually, if GFDL is forecasting this to be the next named storm, it might be technically correct to say "GFDL brings Florence..."...Maybe a better title would be "GFDL brings what could be Florence down to 934MB in 126 hours"

[Josephine96]

"GFDL brings #6/Florence"

[boca]

I worked with a Flo so were in trouble with this one where ever it strikes. I think the speed is a little to quick with Aunt Flo on the 11pm advisory.

[Aslkahuna]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

[brunota2003]

I believe this answers why the GFDL went "crazy" in a sense:

LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PREDICTED TO BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
VERY SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE IN THE LATTER PART OF THE
PERIOD...BUT BELOW THE 1800 UTC GFDL GUIDANCE IN 4-5 DAYS. WE
BELIEVE THAT THIS PARTICULAR RUN OF THE GFDL MODEL HAD A HIGH
INTENSITY BIAS DUE TO PROBLEMS WITH THE OCEAN COUPLING.

however...it could be from TCDS to, but I think the models have been producing enough phantom storms this year to keep them satisfied...

[caneman]

Getting quite a few models latching on with consistency and agreement. In a year of very little model consistency and agreement, this looks to be one to really watch

[Jim Cantore]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

I think we've discovered a new disease.

[Wthrman13]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

Closely related and often concurrent with SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome).

[wxmann_91]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

Closely related and often concurrent with SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome).

I definitely have a really bad case of that, though it's improved lately due to the August 24 event. But during summer, boy you don't want to know...

Anyway, SDS are probably at record high levels this year. Here's an explanation... http://home1.gte.net/txt/SDS.htm

[Wthrman13]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

Closely related and often concurrent with SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome).

I definitely have a really bad case of that, though it's improved lately due to the August 24 event. But during summer, boy you don't want to know...

Anyway, SDS are probably at record high levels this year. Here's an explanation... http://home1.gte.net/txt/SDS.htm

Indeed, if it weren't for the April 24th El Reno, OK tornadoes, my case might have had to be referred to specialists! Short term relief, however, is provided by repeated viewings of Tim Samaras's tornado video probe footage

[TampaSteve]

I think that the testiness is due to TCDS (Tropical Cyclone Deprivation Syndrome).

Steve

Closely related and often concurrent with SDS (Supercell Deprivation Syndrome).

I definitely have a really bad case of that, though it's improved lately due to the August 24 event. But during summer, boy you don't want to know...

Anyway, SDS are probably at record high levels this year. Here's an explanation... http://home1.gte.net/txt/SDS.htm

Indeed, if it weren't for the April 24th El Reno, OK tornadoes, my case might have had to be referred to specialists! Short term relief, however, is provided by repeated viewings of Tim Samaras's tornado video probe footage

Damn...that F4 just smashed that house...bam...gone...

[Nimbus]

Strong storms seem to attract troughs so intensification could end up being a good thing steeringwise. There is no land interaction and once the current trough moves northeast there will be less shear. This is September afterall so 934 sounds reasonable.