T.D. Six - Sat Pics, Comments,Models Thread #2

[DESTRUCTION5]

I think the question here is what happens wit X98 1st? This may change everything from future steering to Strength...Very odd set up in the short term..

[HurricaneHunter914]

The convection looks rather ragged with TD#6 tonight, no upgrade to TS until tomorrow.

[Damar91]

The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane will never happen again.

Why would it never happen again?

[Stormavoider]

What are the chances of us getting a Fujiwhara lesson with this storm and old 98L?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There looks to be two systems one at 15.5 north/40 or so west. Which looks to be moving north-northwestward. This system is very organized with a well defined LLC. All it needs is to form a central core of convection in strengthen is a given.

2# A system appears to have formed a LLC at 13 north/46 west. This system also looks very organized. This is old 98L. This system looks to be moving more westward. I think this system is close.

[SouthFLTropics]

The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane will never happen again.

Oooh, I'd be careful with statements like that. Rule of thumb is that when you make a statement like that then it will always happen!

[JTD]

Compare the following two initial advisory co-ordinates and there is no reason to automatically assume #6 is a fish. In fact, the similarities are striking indeed.

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 07 1999

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST OR ABOUT
980 MILES...1575 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.6 N... 46.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

BEVEN

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.

NNNN


000
WTNT31 KNHC 032030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525
MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Damar91]

Does anyone have the advisory for Andrew?

[SouthFLTropics]

Compare the following two initial advisory co-ordinates and there is no reason to automatically assume #6 is a fish. In fact, the similarities are striking indeed.

ZCZC MIATCPAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST TUE SEP 07 1999

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2 WEST OR ABOUT
980 MILES...1575 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.6 N... 46.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM AST.

BEVEN

STRIKE PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ADVISORY NUMBER CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AFOS HEADER MIASPFAT3 AND WMO HEADER WTNT73 KNHC.

NNNN


000
WTNT31 KNHC 032030
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062006
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 03 2006

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.4 WEST OR ABOUT 1525
MILES...2455 KM...EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON
MONDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...14.6 N...40.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

I'm assuming that TD 8 the first advisory is referring to was for Floyd in 1999? Correct me if I'm wrong please! Also note that there are two big differences. The 1999 storm was 6 degrees further west and was heading west while our current storm is farther east and is heading NW.

[JTD]

SouthFltropics,

Nope you are right. Exactly the same co-ordinates latitude wise. And that is true regarding the two differences you pointed out.

Damar91, I tried finding an advisory archive for Andrew. I can't.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Do any one else see two systems there like I do.

[Brent]

I don't have the advisory for Andrew, but according to the Best Track at Unisys it formed at 10.8 N 35.5 W

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[Deputy Van Halen]

Quote:
Only 4 storms since 1851 reached the east U.S. Coast, two in the late 1800s, one in the early 1900s, and Fran in 1996. Most named storms that passed near where TD 6 is turned northward between 55W-75W. I suspect that's what TD 6 / Florence will do. But there's a slight chance it could be blocked twice and shoved west to the east U.S. Coast. It's just a matter of timing.




The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

It looks like another one of the four was a direct hit on New York City.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Do any one else see two systems there like I do.

I think if 98 survives TD6 and 90L will be fish...If it gets eaten the tracks with the west bend for TD 6 will come to fruition...

[Sanibel]

Take notice that EPAC just went negative while Atlantic is curling up a big one.

[SouthFLTropics]

Andrew's Marine Advisory from 1992...I'm still looking for the first Public Advisory


ZCZC MIAWRKAM4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE MARINE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
0300Z MON AUG 17 1992

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 38.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT
ALL QUADRANT RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 38.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 37.3W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 11.6N 41.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.2N 44.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.0N 48.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 38.3W

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 13.7N 51.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

MAYFIELD

Here is the discussion as well...NOTE that the forecaster writing the discussion was none other than Max Mayfield!

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM AST SUN AUG 16 1992

SATELLITE ANALYSTS AT BOTH SAB AND NHC HAVE BEEN CLASSIFYING THE
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE DVORAK CI NUMBER HAS BEEN 2.0 FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. METEOSAT
IMAGES CONTINUE TO SHOW A BANDING TYPE PATTERN AND DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED CLOSE TO THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER...ENOUGH TO WARRANT
ISSUING DEPRESSION ADVISORIES.

NMC AVIATION MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE DEEP EASTERLIES...AND ALL TRACK MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT. INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18 AND THIS SAME GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE AVIATION MODEL ALSO INDICATES STRONG 200 MB WINDS FROM THE EAST
OVER THE SYSTEM...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. IF
THE SHEAR IS LIGHTER THAN FORECAST...MORE STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.

MAYFIELD


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 17/0300Z 11.2N 38.3W 30 KTS
12HR VT 17/1200Z 11.6N 41.0W 35 KTS
24HR VT 18/0000Z 12.2N 44.6W 35 KTS
36HR VT 18/1200Z 13.0N 48.3W 40 KTS
48HR VT 19/0000Z 13.7N 51.9W 40 KTS
72HR VT 20/0000Z 15.0N 59.0W 45 KTS

[bostonseminole]

Do any one else see two systems there like I do.

yes,

[Dean4Storms]

If TD6 keeps heading into that shear there won't be any strengthening anytime soon. But 98L is another story altogether.

[HeeBGBz]

The only problem with that is one of those 4 storms was the 1928 Okeechobee hurricane.

The 1928 Okeechobee hurricane will never happen again.

Oooh, I'd be careful with statements like that. Rule of thumb is that when you make a statement like that then it will always happen!

No kidding. That was the general feeling about Camille until Katrina gave the royal smackdown.
Camille killed a lot of people during Katrina.

[terstorm1012]

SouthFLTropics, great historical find there! Thank you so much!

Back to the topic at hand, I'm hoping for a long-tracked fish system....but growing concerned that this might not happen. It is early yet though.