Invest 99L,Central Caribbean,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread

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skysummit
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#201 Postby skysummit » Sun Sep 03, 2006 11:05 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:From Jeff Master's morning post:

Lesser Antilles tropical wave
A small tropical wave surrounded by a cloud of African dust is moving through the eastern Caribbean this morning. This wave, which NHC has designated "Invest 99L", is tracking west at 15 mph and has a small area of heavy thunderstorms associated with it. A large upper trough of low pressure over Cuba and Hispaniola that is creating about 10-20 knots of shear over 99L, preventing significant development. The trough is expected to weaken and move west over the next few days, potentially creating a low shear environment over most of the Caribbean. This could allow intensification of 99L into a tropical depression by Tuesday at the earliest. NHC has not run any preliminary models for this storm since yesterday.


Today's 12z Guidance:

Image
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#202 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:06 pm

I wouldn't give up on this thing totally yet...
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear Tendency is down around it.
Yes it looks like crap but that Upper Level Trough and Associated ULL are weakening. We may see some development in the western Caribbean.
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#203 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 1:11 pm

I give it a less than 5% shot at develoing. Shear tendency may be down, but WV loops indicate unfavorable conditions in its path. It'll move across Central America into the Pacific, most likely.
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#204 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 5:39 pm

I agree, I do think it has some chance of development. Models are agreement in its path; a potential TD7/Gordon would likely be a Central America system. This could also be an EPac threat...
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#205 Postby Epsilon_Fan » Sun Sep 03, 2006 7:46 pm

I agree, this wave will probably continue into the EPAC and blow up like they have been doing alot this year
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#206 Postby Hyperstorm » Sun Sep 03, 2006 8:24 pm

And POOF!

Didn't take the whole 48 hours I gave it for the wave to weaken considerably and the low pressure to dissipate. Might be too weak now to even regenerate should conditions change (unlikely).

2006 destroys another Caribbean crosser...
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#207 Postby Josephine96 » Sun Sep 03, 2006 9:39 pm

at least if it does develop, it'll only be a rain maker for Central America and not threaten the US
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